The use of ex-ante modelling tools in European Impact Assessment: What role does land use play?

Impact Assessment was introduced by the European Commission in 2002 in order to make policy development more transparent and improve the ‘quality’ of European policies. Cross-sectoral consultation, broad participation and the quantitative assessment of the impacts of policies are significant elements of this process. This article specifically addresses the role of tools modelling the impact of policies on land use in Impact Assessment. The choice of a specific modelling tool is conceptualised as an action situation interlinked with other action arenas. The article aims to uncover the institutions structuring the action situation. The outcome of the empirical work suggests that two types of Impact Assessments can be distinguished. Impact Assessments either substantively contribute to the specific policy that the Commission proposes or they legitimise policy choices ex post that have already been adopted. The legislative procedure that applies to a specific policy sector, the policy making culture in the DG and the stakes that are at issue seem to influence whether Impact Assessments contribute to policy development, or legitimise it. Furthermore, the article describes the situation in which desk officers choose a modelling tool throughout Impact Assessment. To advance their careers desk officers aim to produce policy proposals which respond to the issues raised by the actors involved in Impact Assessment and specifically in policy development and, later on, adoption. Therefore, desk officers’ preferences are shaped by the community that is involved in policy development and Impact Assessment. The article describes what role modelling tools play in European Impact Assessment procedures and it names the heuristic of criteria which desk officers use to choose a modelling tool. Besides several technical and data problems of modelling land use impact, it seems to be unlikely that land use will become a significant dimension of Impact Assessment and modelling as it is confronted with an unfavourable institutional environment at the European level.     

Entrepreneurial resource acquisition via personal networks: an empirical study of German start-ups

This paper presents a resource-based theoretical model for an extended version of the network success hypothesis. It derives four main hypotheses for the relationships between resources obtained from personal networks of the founders and a new venture's success. The model takes into account a broad range of control variables. In the empirical study, based on a sample of 123 German entrepreneurs, we do not find much support for our hypotheses. We conclude that, quite in contrast to most existing theories, network links have close to no impact on getting cheap or exclusive resources.     

Initiating Negotiations: The Role of Machiavellianism, Risk Propensity, and Bargaining Power

Initiation is an often-overlooked yet essential stage of the negotiation process. This study examined the effects of two measures of personality—Machiavellianism and risk propensity—and relative bargaining power (as based on multiple situational factors) on three phases of the initiation process—engaging a counterpart, making a request, and optimizing the request. Using a multi-scenario approach, one hundred fifteen participants indicated their initiation preferences for three distinct negotiations. The results of repeated measures ANOVAs indicate that bargaining power influences an individual’s decision to initiate negotiations. In addition, those high in Machiavellianism choose to initiate negotiations even when relative bargaining power is low, whereas those high in risk propensity tend to optimize their requests. The implications of these findings for practitioners and future research are discussed.     

Getting a feel for price affect: A conceptual framework and empirical investigation of consumers' emotional responses to price information

Behavioral pricing research is cognitively biased. Therefore, the research agenda for this paper is to examine consumers' emotional responses to price information, or price affect. A conceptual framework of price affect based on appraisal theory is proposed. Moreover, a psychometric measure of price affect capturing positive and negative emotions is derived. A field experiment involving N = 1533 consumers reveals that a price increase leads to changes in price affect. Also, negative price affect is related to passive consumer behavior, whereas positive price affect is associated with proactive consumer behavior. Yet, a price increase reduces the importance of price affect in predicting consumer behavior. In addition, both price cognitions and price affect mediate the effect of a price increase on consumer behavior. Consistent with appraisal theory, a price increase exerts its causal influence on price affect through changes in price cognitions. Similarly, price affect mediates the effect of price cognitions on consumer behavior. Finally, price affect improves the prediction of consumer behavior beyond price cognitions. Results suggest that price affect is a stand alone, previously overlooked predictor of consumer behavior. Implications are discussed. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The psychological effects on tariff choices for car insurance

Insurance customers increasingly choose between conventional flat-rate car insurance tariffs and innovative usage-based car insurance tariffs such as a pay-per-mile tariff. Usage-based car insurance tariffs require traffic telematics. In this paper, we analyze the decision-making behavior of insurance customers concerning tariff choices as well as the psychological effects. In other service areas, it can be observed that customers often prefer a flat-rate tariff even if their billing rate would be lower on a pay-per-use tariff for a given amount of usage. In study?1, we show that the purchase intention of car insurance tariffs is influenced by psychological effects as well as the customer’s personal experience with the insurance provider and that it is higher for a flat-rate car insurance tariff compared to a pay-per-mile tariff. Customers who have had positive experiences with an insurance provider induce a higher purchase intention for car insurance than customers who have had no experience with an insurance provider. In study?2, we show that the probability of choosing a flat-rate car insurance tariff is higher with increasing monthly kilometers.     

Tempering effects of (dependent) background risks: A mean-variance analysis of portfolio selection

In a mean variance framework, we analyse risk taking in the presence of a (possibly) dependent background risk, exemplified in a linear portfolio selection problem. We first characterise the comparative statics of changes in the distribution and dependence structure of the background risk. For unfair, undesirable and loss-aggravating increases in background risks (both dependent and independent), we then present necessary and sufficient restrictions on preferences such that greater background uncertainty leads to reduced risk taking. With mean-variance preferences, these restrictions boil down to simple conditions on the marginal rate of substitution between risk and return. They can be easily related to familiar notions such as risk vulnerability, properness or standardness.     

Cross‐sectional Tests of Conditional Asset Pricing Models: Evidence from the German Stock Market

We study the performance of conditional asset pricing models and multifactor models in explaining the German cross‐section of stock returns. We focus on several variables, which (according to previous research) are associated with market expectations on future market excess returns or business cycle conditions. Our results suggest that the empirical performance of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) can be improved when allowing for time‐varying parameters of the stochastic discount factor. A conditional CAPM using the term spread explains the returns on our size and book‐to‐market sorted portfolios about as well as the Fama‐French three‐factor model and performs best in terms of the Hansen‐Jagannathan distance. Structural break tests do not necessarily indicate parameter instability of conditional model specifications. Another major finding of the paper is that the Fama‐French model – despite its generally good cross‐sectional performance – is subject to model instability. Unconditional models, however, do a better job than conditional ones at capturing time‐series predictability of the test portfolio returns.     

The social value of income information in a model with market power and endogenous variety

The present paper analyzes the value of public information in a general equilibrium economy with imperfect competition. The welfare effects of an improved information system for perfectly competitive economies have been extensively investigated in the published literature. Schlee (2001) shows that the value of information is always negative in exchange economies if an efficient risk sharing mechanism exists. In contrast, in economies with production, better information reduces welfare provided consumers are sufficiently risk-averse ( Eckwert and Zilcha 2000, 2003 ). In the present paper it will be shown that this result is robust if the production sector exhibits monopolistic competition in the Chamberlinian sense. Even so, the inefficiency of equilibria adds further potential for positive welfare effects of improved information. A model is presented where the degree of market imperfection is positively linked to the value of information. If the markup on competitive prices is sufficiently high, the value of information is positive; that is, better information increases economic welfare.