Strategic Information Acquisition in Capital Markets*

A simple model of an asset market is presented, where agents are asymmetrically informed and hence information is transmitted through the price system. Prior to the trading period, a group of traders is given the opportunity to decide in a collusive arrangement whether they want to undertake a (costless) analysis which yields information about the future dividends of a risky asset. It will be shown that the fully rational and risk-averse insiders can do better without the information, if the dividend volatility of the risky asset is sufficiently low.
JEL Classification Numbers: D82, G14.     

Models in action: how management models are interpreted in new product development

This paper studies the use of product development management models. Through an interpretive research approach based on in-depth interviews with 22 middle managers in two product development organizations, five ways of conceiving projects, project management and the role of models are identified – administrative, organizing, sense giving, team building and engineering – all representing different perspectives on – and ways of using models. The findings question essentialist views of models, common in the literature, as either normative guides for action or symbolic tools decoupled from action. Instead, the study indicates a large variety in the use of models mediated by the user's conception of the situation and the model. The study highlights the communicative role of models as boundary objects, enabling coordination of and communication about different conceptions of the development task. Rather than contributing to behavioral standardization (an implicit assumption that underlies most formal models), this study suggests that models support cognitive standardization by providing a common set of concepts and a framework that may be drawn upon in making sense of complex product development projects.     

Die Stadtstaatenwertung—ein Hindernis für Länderfusionen?

Die Bestrebungen für eine Fusion von Berlin und Brandenburg haben gezeigt, dass L?nderfusionen politisch nur umsetzbar sind, wenn Klarheit über die Finanzperspektiven der beteiligten L?nder besteht. Dabei kommt den rechtlichen Folgen eines Zusammenschlusses für die so genannte Stadtstaatenwertung im L?nderfinanzausgleich zentrale Bedeutung zu. Bislang wurde stets davon ausgegangen, dass L?nderfusionen den Wegfall der Stadtstaatenwertung und damit Kompensationsregelungen erfordern. Verlangt das geltende Recht auf der Grundlage der Finanzverfassung tats?chlich den Wegfall der Stadtstaatenwertung? Der Aufsatz gibt die pers?nliche Meinung der Verfasser wieder.     

Risikomanagement in Schaden-/Unfall-Versicherungsunternehmen

Seit Inkrafttreten des KonTraG im Mai 1998 sind Versicherungsunternehmen gesetzlich zur Einführung eines Risikofrüherkennungssystems verpflichtet. Es existieren bisher keine genauen gesetzlichen Vorgaben für die inhaltliche Ausgestaltung dieses Systems. Ziel dieses Artikels ist es zum einen, einen überblick über die verschiedenen Ausgestaltungsvarianten von Risikofrüherkennungssystemen in der Versicherungspraxis zu geben. Grundlage hierfür bildet eine Umfrage unter 229 deutschen Schaden-/Unfall-Versicherungsunternehmen im Herbst 2000. Zum anderen werden theoretische Ansatzpunkte für eine Integration von Risikomanagementsystemen in die Unternehmensführung anhand der betrieblichen Teilsysteme Planung, Organisation, Personalführung, Informationssystem, Kontrolle und Controlling aufgezeigt.     

Gendiagnostikgesetz und Versicherung: Anspruch und Wirklichkeit

With the new German Gene Diagnostic Act (Gendiagnostikgesetz) the legislator aims at improving the protection of insurance applicants by prohibiting private insurers from collecting and using genetic information. However, the analysis of the new provisions shows that the provisions pertaining to insurance neither provide a comprehensive protection against genetic discrimination of insurance applicants and insured nor do they protect their right of gene-informational self-determination. Cuts of insurance benefits of the insured in private health insurance as well as incoherent disclosure obligations for insurance applicants unconstitutionally limit the rights of affected people as compared to the time before the Gene Diagnostic Act came into force. In summary, the new Gene Diagnostic Act does not only fail to meet its claims and thus falls short of the expectations, but also, due to numerous unclear provisions, poses a series of grave problems for insurance applicants, privately insured and private insurers.     

Merger policy and tax competition: the role of foreign firm ownership

In many situations, governments have sector-specific tax and regulation policies at their disposal to influence the market outcome after a national or an international merger has taken place. In this paper we study the implications for merger policy when countries non-cooperatively deploy production-based taxes and firms may be partly owned by foreigners. We find that when foreign firm ownership is low in the pre-merger situation, non-cooperative tax policies are more efficient after a national merger, and smaller synergy effects are needed for this type of merger to be proposed and cleared. In contrast, cross-border mergers dominate when the degree of foreign firm ownership is high initially. These results suggest a link between increasing international portfolio diversification and the rising share of cross-border mergers.     

Steady-state growth and the elasticity of substitution

In a neoclassical economy with endogenous capital- and labor-augmenting technical change the steady-state growth rate of output per worker is shown to increase in the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor. This confirms the assessment of Klump and de La Grandville (2000) that a greater elasticity of substitution allows for faster of economic growth. However, unlike their findings my result applies to the steady-state growth rate. Moreover, it does not hinge on particular assumptions on how aggregate savings come about. It holds for any household sector allowing savings to grow at the same rate as aggregate output.     

Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task

We conducted laboratory experiments for analyzing the accuracy of three structured approaches (nominal groups, Delphi, and prediction markets) relative to traditional face-to-face meetings (FTF). We recruited 227 participants (11 groups per method) who were required to solve a quantitative judgment task that did not involve distributed knowledge. This task consisted of ten factual questions, which required percentage estimates. While we did not find statistically significant differences in accuracy between the four methods overall, the results differed somewhat at the individual question level. Delphi was as accurate as FTF for eight questions and outperformed FTF for two questions. By comparison, prediction markets did not outperform FTF for any of the questions and were inferior for three questions. The relative performances of nominal groups and FTF were mixed and the differences were small. We also compared the results from the three structured approaches to prior individual estimates and staticized groups. The three structured approaches were more accurate than participants’ prior individual estimates. Delphi was also more accurate than staticized groups. Nominal groups and prediction markets provided little additional value relative to a simple average of the forecasts. In addition, we examined participants’ perceptions of the group and the group process. The participants rated personal communications more favorably than computer-mediated interactions. The group interactions in FTF and nominal groups were perceived as being highly cooperative and effective. Prediction markets were rated least favourably: prediction market participants were least satisfied with the group process and perceived their method as the most difficult.