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211.
This study looks at the link between the patterns of trade-revealed comparative advantage and net inward foreign direct investment in five developed countries: the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan, France, and Italy. It thus extends earlier work by Maskus and Webster (1995) who analyzed two countries, the United Kingdom and South Korea. Despite assertions in the literature that market access is the primary motive for foreign direct investment flows among developed countries, this study shows that there is a significant role for comparative advantage in determining inflows of foreign direct investment in developed countries, especially in the services industry. 相似文献
212.
Christian L. Dunis Jason Laws Andreas Karathanasopoulos 《European Journal of Finance》2013,19(3):180-205
In the current paper, we present an integrated genetic programming (GP) environment called java GP modelling. The java GP modelling environment is an implementation of the steady-state GP algorithm. This algorithm evolves tree-based structures that represent models of inputs and outputs. The motivation of this paper is to compare the GP algorithm with neural network (NN) architectures when applied to the task of forecasting and trading the ASE 20 Greek Index (using autoregressive terms as inputs). This is done by benchmarking the forecasting performance of the GP algorithm and six different autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) NN combination designs representing a Hybrid, Mixed Higher Order Neural Network (HONN), a Hybrid, Mixed Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), a Hybrid, Mixed classic Multilayer Perceptron with some traditional techniques, either statistical such as a an ARMA or technical such as a moving average convergence/divergence model, and a naïve trading strategy. More specifically, the trading performance of all models is investigated in a forecast and trading simulation on ASE 20 time-series closing prices over the period 2001–2008, using the last one and a half years for out-of-sample testing. We use the ASE 20 daily series as many financial institutions are ready to trade at this level, and it is therefore possible to leave orders with a bank for business to be transacted on that basis. As it turns out, the GP model does remarkably well and outperforms all other models in a simple trading simulation exercise. This is also the case when more sophisticated trading strategies using confirmation filters and leverage are applied, as the GP model still produces better results and outperforms all other NN and traditional statistical models in terms of annualized return. 相似文献
213.
Momentum strategies of German mutual funds 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Alexander Franck Andreas Walter Johannes F. Witt 《Financial Markets and Portfolio Management》2013,27(3):307-332
The existence of the momentum effect in stock returns has been documented for the US (e.g., Jegadeesh and Titman in J. Finance 48(1), 65–91, 1993) and many other national equity markets worldwide (e.g., Griffin et al. in J. Finance 58(6), 2515–2547, 2003). However, little is known about the active employment of momentum strategies among institutional investors outside the US. This paper provides first evidence of momentum behavior among German mutual funds. We find the fund trades to follow stock returns on an aggregated institutional level. Moreover, we detect significant momentum behavior among funds with a European and global equity focus, as well as among funds predominantly investing in Asia. In contrast, German funds do not seem to engage in momentum strategies when trading domestic stocks. While only half the funds in our sample trade in accordance with past returns, 66 % of the funds within the largest size quintile follow momentum strategies. Finally, we do not find momentum trading funds to outperform the other funds. 相似文献
214.
Andreas Nordvall Lagerås 《Scandinavian actuarial journal》2013,2013(2):161-164
It is known, but perhaps not well-known, that when the mortality is assumed to be of Gompertz–Makeham-type, the expected remaining life-length and the commutation functions used for calculating the expected values of various types of life insurances can be expressed with an incomplete gamma function with a negative shape parameter. This is not of much use if ones software cannot calculate these values. The aim of this note is to show that one can express the commutation functions using only the exponential function, the (ordinary) gamma function and the gamma distribution function, which are all implemented in common statistical and spreadsheet software. This eliminates the need to evaluate the commutation functions and expected remaining life-length with numerical integration. 相似文献
215.
During the last decades Norwegian exporters have–despite various forms of exchange rate targeting–faced a rather volatile exchange rate which may have influenced their behaviour. Recently, the shift to inflation targeting and a freely floating exchange rate has brought about an even more volatile exchange rate. We examine the causal link between export performance and exchange rate volatility across different monetary policy regimes within the cointegrated Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework using the implied conditional variance from a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model as a measure of volatility. Although treating the volatility measure as either a stationary or a nonstationary variable in the VAR, we are not able to find any evidence suggesting that export performance has been significantly affected by exchange rate uncertainty. We find, however, that volatility changes proxied by blip dummies related to the monetary policy change from a fixed to a managed floating exchange rate and the Asian financial crises during the 1990s enter significantly in a dynamic model for export growth–in which the level of relative prices and world market demand together with the level of exports constitute a significant cointegration relationship. A forecasting exercise on the dynamic model rejects the hypothesis that increased exchange rate volatility in the wake of inflation targeting in the monetary policy has had a significant impact on export performance. 相似文献
216.
In this paper we explore how innovation and structural change affected economic development in the long run, by which we mean a period such as the one between the industrial revolution and the present. We separate the period since the industrial revolution into two sub periods, which we call ‘necessities’ and ‘imaginary worlds’ and focus on three trajectories, increasing productive efficiency, increasing output variety, and increasing output quality and differentiation. In the paper we show how a combination of the three trajectories gave rise to the transition between ‘necessities’ and ‘imaginary worlds’ and propose a mechanism of economic development which could have given rise to the type of economic system which we can observe today. To create growing output quality and differentiation higher competencies were required. These higher competencies required higher levels of education and demanded higher wages, which contributed to raise consumers' purchasing power. These phenomena, combined with the income effect of the creation of new sectors, generated the disposable income with which consumers could purchase the new, higher quality, non necessities, goods and services generated by innovation. In the paper we study the impact of several model parameters on the stability of the virtuous circle previously described. 相似文献
217.
Andreas Kakridis 《European Journal of the History of Economic Thought》2013,20(4):625-664
Abstract This paper combines quantitative, biographical and qualitative data to trace out the structure and dynamics of Greece's post-war community of economists, and explore its implications for the country's economic discourse. Greek economics was a state-centred profession whose fate was intertwined with that of the post-war developmental state apparatus. Most economists were employed in universities, the civil service or banking, with substantial interpenetration between branches. This configuration of professional constituencies, in conjunction with the structural features of each institution, conditioned the form and content of economic discourse. Professional and ideological cohesion went hand in hand, whilst substantial degrees of vertical and horizontal control by senior members further fostered consensus and increased professional sclerosis. Nevertheless, evidence from a new database of economic journal publications suggests that a substantial realignment took place in the late 1950s and 1960s, as a younger generation of scholars – most of them educated in the post-war UK/US, and affiliated with the newly established Centre for Planning and Economic Research – entered the scene. 相似文献
218.
Over the past decade there has been mixed evidence on the lead–lag relation between issuer-paid and investor-paid credit rating agencies. We investigate the lead–lag relationship for changes in bond ratings (BRs) and financial strength ratings (FSRs), for the US insurance industry, where FSRs impose market discipline. First, we find that changes in issuer-paid BRs are led by changes in investor-paid BRs, even over a period that issuer-paid agencies have improved their timeliness. Second, information flows in both directions between changes in issuer-paid BRs and FSRs. Third, issuer-paid FSRs are predictable by investor-paid BRs. Fourth, the lead effect of investor-paid downgrades is economically significant as it is associated with an unconditional, post-event, 30-day cumulative abnormal return of −4%. This return is a result of investor-paid downgrades in BRs, which predict more downgrades in the following 90 days (same period return of −11%). 相似文献
219.
Philip Heinz Chris Patel Andreas Hellmann 《Advances in accounting, incorporating advances in international accounting》2013
The objective of this paper is to provide theoretical and methodological suggestions to guide future research on the controversial topics of accountants' professional judgments and earnings management. Based on an evaluation of prior research, this paper provides four suggestions. First, it is suggested that a focus on the influence of personality variables is likely to provide sharper insights into judgments of individuals. Two relevant personality variables have been selected for this paper, namely, Construal of Self and Regulatory Focus Theory. Both Construal of Self and Regulatory Focus Theory have been, primarily in psychology literature, proven as valid and relevant for judgments, decisions and behavior. Second, prior literature conducted studies on earnings management and ethical issues to a large extent in the United States, often assuming that findings are generalizable and transferable to other countries. Given the importance of contextual factors and of gaining insights from global perspectives, the examination of nations with different contextual environments and particularly of countries in which ethical issues have not been rigorously examined, is suggested. Third, prior research has largely relied on simplistic unidimensional ethics measures that are unlikely to capture the complexity of accountants' professional judgments. It is suggested that a combination of a unidimensional measure and ‘Multidimensional Ethics Measure’ (MEM) provides richer insights into judgments. Fourth, this paper also suggests measuring “holier-than-thou” perception bias. “Holier-than-thou” perception bias means that individuals consider themselves as more ethical than their peers. This bias is important because it may foster an unethical organizational culture. Some of the suggestions included in this paper may provide useful guidance for future studies examining accountants' professional judgments and earnings management. 相似文献
220.