Do German security analysts herd?

We employ an innovative methodology suggested by Bernhardt et al. (J. Financ. Econ. 80:657–675, 2006) to examine the herding (or anti-herding) behavior of German analysts regarding earnings forecasts. This methodology avoids well-known shortcomings often encountered in related studies, such as correlated information signals, unexpected common shocks to earnings, systematic optimism or pessimism, or forecast target mismeasurement. Our findings suggest that German analysts anti-herd, that is, they systematically issue earnings forecasts that are further away from the consensus forecast than their private information indicates. Furthermore, we analyze the association between herding behavior and different characteristics, including the size of the brokerage, general or firm-specific experience, and the coverage of firms on the Neuer Markt. We mainly confirm findings for the United States, for example, that anti-herding is more severe in cases of higher competition among analysts. Contrary to anecdotal evidence, we also find anti-herding behavior in earnings forecasts for Neuer Markt firms during the “new economy” bubble.

Currency momentum strategies

We provide a broad empirical investigation of momentum strategies in the foreign exchange market. We find a significant cross-sectional spread in excess returns of up to 10% per annum (p.a.) between past winner and loser currencies. This spread in excess returns is not explained by traditional risk factors, it is partially explained by transaction costs and shows behavior consistent with investor under- and overreaction. Moreover, cross-sectional currency momentum has very different properties from the widely studied carry trade and is not highly correlated with returns of benchmark technical trading rules. However, there seem to be very effective limits to arbitrage that prevent momentum returns from being easily exploitable in currency markets.     

Renewable energy and local development: Seven lessons from the mining industry

Having long depended on fossil fuels for energy generation, South Africa is now investing in renewable energy. Like its mining operations, its renewable energy plants will have local implications. Renewable energy companies are therefore required by government to engage with communities to contribute to socio-economic development. We present seven lessons we believe the renewable energy sector can learn from the mining industry. We argue that the new industry must: manage social disruption, understand community complexities, create responsive institutions and the capacity to support industry practice, employ trained community practitioners, be clear about the aims of local development, encourage economic diversification in remote areas and, importantly, in view of problems caused by downscaling in the mining industry, plan for the possible closure of projects. Renewable energy projects could then serve and shape local development.     

Internationalization of Blue-Chip versus Mid-Cap Stock Indices: an Empirical Analysis for France,Germany, and the UK

The paper analyzes the question whether blue-chip stock indices provide a larger degree of internationalization than mid-cap stock indices. Specific focus lies on internationalization of indices in France, Germany, and the UK. Additionally, we analyze whether the degree of internationalization differs between industries. The dataset covers the CAC40, the DAX30 and the 30 largest firms in the FTSE100 as blue-chip indices and the CAC Next 20 and CAC Mid 60, the MDAX and TecDAX, and the remaining 70 companies in the FTSE100 as mid-cap indices. The comparison of blue-chip and mid-cap indices is based on three indicators of internationalization: percentages of employees based outside the firms’ home country, percentages of foreign sales, and percentages of foreign corporate tax payments. Blue-chip and mid-cap indices exhibit high levels of internationalization. Internationalization is stronger in German and UK blue-chip indices than in these countries’ mid-cap indices, whereas internationalization in French mid-cap and blue-chip indices is similar. Blue-chip and mid-cap firms in the energy/materials/utilities and industrials sectors exhibit similar levels of internationalization, whereas blue-chip firms in the consumer and health sectors exhibit higher levels than corresponding mid-cap firms. The research question and results are of particular importance for retail and institutional investors, because investing in indices typically represents a low cost alternative to individual stock picking. The question whether stock index characteristics, such as market capitalization and industry, influence the degree of international diversification within the index is largely unanswered in the literature. The paper addresses this question.     

Evaluating transport user benefits and social surplus in a transport market—The case of the Norwegian ferries

The article first infers how consumer surplus in a market is linked to revenue under different assumptions about fare elasticity and when using different types of demand functions. This information is added to producer surplus in order to derive social surplus. The method, thus, produces a simple approach for authorities to assess social surplus in a market and its benefits to the users. A modified exponential demand function is applied to calculate consumer surplus and social surplus for 97 ferry services in Norway regulated by the state. The calculations are based on empirical data concerning ferry fare, revenue data at service level and reasonable assumptions about fare point elasticity for services covering different distances.In 2007, these services generated welfare for the users (consumer surplus) and the society (social surplus) amounting to about 5.8 billion NOK and 4.3 billion NOK, respectively. Consumer surplus and social surplus varied considerably amongst the services. Only 3 of the 97 services operate with positive profits and, hence, without subsidies. About 21 of the services contribute negatively to social surplus. Many of these unprofitable services are the only transport alternatives in rural areas and could be argued to continue operation according to politically decided regional measures. Implicitly, maintaining all these 21 services means that the welfare for the people in these areas is valued as up to four times greater than the welfare of the people in the rest of society.     

Do the poor benefit from globalization regardless of institutional quality?

Despite significant progress towards the Millennium goals, more than one billion people live on less than 1.25 US dollars per day. Previous research suggests that globalization stimulates poverty reduction, but does not investigate what role institutions play in this relationship. Theoretically, globalization could act as either a complement or a substitute to institutional quality in reducing poverty. We find that the poverty-reducing effect of globalization is stronger when institutions are weak. In particular, increasing social globalization reduces poverty more when corruption is high and democratic accountability is low. Thus, globalization has the power to reduce poverty even in countries with low institutional quality.