Comparing linear and nonlinear forecasts for stock returns

We compare the out-of-sample performance of monthly returns forecasts for two indices, namely the Dow Jones (DJ) and the Financial Times (FT) indices. A linear and a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) model are used to generate the out-of-sample competing forecasts for monthly returns. Stationary transformations of dividends and trading volume are considered as fundamental explanatory variables in the linear model and the input variables in the ANN model. The comparison of out-of-sample forecasts is done on the basis of forecast accuracy, using the Diebold and Mariano test [J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 13 (1995) 253.], and forecast encompassing, using the Clements and Hendry approach [J. Forecast. 5 (1998) 559.]. The results suggest that the out-of-sample ANN forecasts are significantly more accurate than linear forecasts of both indices. Furthermore, the ANN forecasts can explain the forecast errors of the linear model for both indices, while the linear model cannot explain the forecast errors of the ANN in either of the two indices. Overall, the results indicate that the inclusion of nonlinear terms in the relation between stock returns and fundamentals is important in out-of-sample forecasting. This conclusion is consistent with the view that the relation between stock returns and fundamentals is nonlinear.     

Consumer specialization and the Romantic transformation of the British Grand Tour of Europe

This paper posits that significant changes in 19th century British recreational travel patterns resulted from a change in the manner in which tourists used entertaining stimuli in order to attain pleasure. Consumers no longer merely viewed arousing stimuli, but attempted to use them to produce emotional states of being which they could partially modify to intensify pleasurable feelings (Damasio, Looking for Spinoza: Joy, sorrow, and the feeling brain, William Heinemann, 2003). The impetus for this modification stemmed from an increasing awareness that emotional responses could be to some degree self-cultivated, as embodied in the Romantic ethos that become popular at the time via the emergence of the paperback novel and magazine industry (Campbell, The romantic ethic and the spirit of modern consumerism, Blackwell, 1987). By learning how to manipulate and modify mental images in a way that may not necessarily correspond with objective reality, Romantic tourists learned to elicit pleasure through engaging of their imagination. Such a change in the mode of pleasure seeking had important long run economic consequences for tourist regions throughout the European continent.     

Do socially responsible activities help hotels and casinos achieve their financial goals?

While the concept of corporate social responsibility (CSR) has gained much attention and is currently practiced by many companies, it has yet to be empirically examined in the context of hotels and casinos, especially in regard to the potential effects of CSR on firm value and performance. As the findings on the relationship between CSR and financial performance have been inconclusive and this relationship has been found to differ among industries, this study examines the relationship between CSR and firm value and profitability for hotels and casinos. Results of the Durbin–Wu–Hausman (DWH) test and a subsequent two-stage least square (2SLS) method show that hotel companies’ CSR has a simultaneous and positive relationship with financial performance. For casino companies, however, results show that CSR has no simultaneous or particular effect on financial performance. Findings suggest that hotel companies can confidently and strategically increase CSR investment to enhance both short-term (profitability) and long-term performance (firm value). Casino companies need to carefully examine the effects of CSR on financial performance, when making CSR-related decisions.     

Residents’ attitudes toward future tourism development in terms of community well-being and attachment

This study explores residents’ attitudes toward future tourism development based on their community well-being (CWB) and community attachment. Focusing on the case of Gamcheon Culture Village in Busan, South Korea, which was developed during an urban regeneration project in 2009, an exploratory factor analysis was conducted. The main findings of this study are: (1) CWB is supported by five variables including income effects, social participation, safety service, infrastructure service, and environmental effect; (2) not only does CWB influence community attachment but attachment also effects residents’ attitudes; and (3) the most effective variable of CWB is income effect, and safety service for community attachment. These results can help to provide effective strategies to encourage residents to have positive attitudes about further tourism development in a community-based tourism destination.     

Corporate social responsibility: The disclosure–performance gap

As increased stakeholder pressure requires companies to be transparent about their CSR practices, it is essential to know how reliable corporate disclosure mechanisms are, testing the gap between corporate social responsibility claims and actual practice. This study benchmarks corporate social responsibility policies and practices of ten international hotel groups of particular importance to the European leisure market. We found that corporate systems are not necessarily reflective of actual operations, environmental performance is eco-savings driven, labour policies aim to comply with local legislation, socio-economic policies are inward looking with little acceptance of impacts on the destination, and customer engagement is limited. Generally larger hotel groups have more comprehensive policies but also greater gaps in implementation, while the smaller hotel groups focus only on environmental management and deliver what they promised. As the first survey of its kind in tourism, both the methodology and the findings have implications for further research.     

Perceptions of determinants of job selection in the hospitality and tourism industry: The case of Korean university students

ABSTRACT

This study explores the key factors influencing potential employees in the hospitality and tourism industry and examines whether causal relationships between behavioral attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control influence students' job selection. The study suggests that the career decision-making process is related to job selection. A total of 307 responses were analyzed. The results explain individual students' attitudes toward a behavior and perceived behavioral control in the context of their job selection. Attitudes toward a behavior and job selection had significant effects on career decisions. On the other hand, opinions of significant others had no significant effect. Perceived behaviors required to decide on jobs had a significant effect on job selection intentions. Students with internship experience were likely to form positive attitudes toward the hospitality and tourism industry, suggesting internships to be a useful source of a stronger relationship between the industry and job aptitudes of students in hospitality and tourism programs. The results have important implications.     

How does changing age distribution impact stock prices? a nonparametric approach

The original article to which this Erratum refers was published in Journal of Applied Econometrics 2009.     

China and the international relocation of world textile and clothing activity

Zusammenfassung China und die internationale Verlagerung der Textil- und Bekleidungsindustrie. - Die chinesischen Wirtschaftsreformen seit den sp?ten 70er Jahren haben das Wachstum des chinesischen Au\enhandels erheblich stimuliert. Chinas Exporte arbeitsintensiver Erzeugnisse wie Textilien und Bekleidung erlebten einen Aufschwung und bewirkten, da\ die fortgeschritteneren der asiatischen Entwick-lungsl?nder ihre Exporte schneller in Richtung auf weniger arbeitsintensive Produkte wie synthetische Garne, Stoffe und Fasern entwickelten. Auf diese Weise übt China einen Druck auf die strukturelle Anpassung der Textil- und Bekleidungsindustrien in den Industriel?ndern aus, und zwar direkt (am arbeitsintensiven Ende des Spektrums) und indirekt über die asiatischen Schwellenl?nder (deren übergang zu kapitalintensiveren Aktivit?ten beschleunigt wird). Parallel zu diesem Beitrag Chinas zum Anstieg des ostasiatischen Anteils am Weltexport von Textilien und Bekleidung l?uft sein Beitrag zur steigenden Vorherrschaft Ostasiens bei den Importen von unverarbeiteter Wolle und Baumwolle. In welchem Umfang China weiterhin in dieser Weise fortf?hrt - und dabei seine eigene Volkswirtschaft entwickelt und st?rkt -, h?ngt in hohem Ma\e von ?nderungen der Importbeschr?nkungspolitik in den Industriel?ndern ab.

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Résumé La Chine et la relocation internationale des activités mondiales en textile et habillement. - Les réformes en politique économique chinoise depuis les années soixante-dix ont stimulé le commerce extérieur chinois. Les exportations chinoises des produits manufacturés intensifs à la main d’∄uvre comme par exemple des produits finis de textile et de l’habillement ont prospéré considérablement poussant les pays développants asiatiques plus avancés d’exporter des biens moins intensifs à la main d’∄uvre comme p.e. les fils synthétiques, les tissus et les fibres. Ainsi la Chine exerce des pressions d’ajustement structurel sur les industries de textile et de l’habillement dans les pays industriels avancés d’une manière directe (à la fin du spectre où il y a des biens intensifs à la main d’∄uvre) et indirecte via les PNI asiatiques (où le développement envers des activités plus intensives aux capitaux est accéléré). En même temps la Chine contribue beaucoup à la dominance montante de l’Asie de l’Est en importations mondiaux du coton pur et de la laine. La mesure avec laquelle la Chine continue à contribuer en telles manières - et ainsi à développer et fortifier son économie propre - dépend fortement des changements des politiques d’importation restrictives dans les pays industriels.

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Resumen La China y la reubicación international de la industria textil y de la confección de prendas de vestir. - Las reformas de política económica realizadas desde fines de la década del setenta estimularon el comercio international de China. Sus exportaciones de manufacturas intensivas en mano de obra como ser las de textiles y confección crecieron pronunciadamente, dando motivo a los países más avanzados del Asia para modificar su estructura de exportación en dirección hacia productos de menor intensidad laboral como ser hilos, tejidos y fibras sintéticas. Con ello China ejerce presión sobre las industrias textiles y de confección de los países industriales avanzados, tanto en forma directa (en el lado del espectro con alta intensidad en mano de obra) como indirecta a través de los NICs asiáticos (cuyo énfasis en actividades intensivas en capital es fomentado), con el fin de lograr un reajuste estructural. Paralelamente a esta contribución de China al crecimiento de la participatión del Este asiático en las exportaciones mundiales de productos textiles y de confección, China contribuye al aumento de la importancia del Este asiático como importador de algodón natural y lana. La medida en la cual China continuará contribuyendo - y de esta mariera desarrollando y fortaleciendo su propia economía - depende ante todo de las politicas de importación restrictivas de los paises industriales.