Asymmetric Information and the Russian Individual Savings Market

The article considers the influence of informational imperfections on the performance of the Russian financial market. The focus is on the individual savings market, which exhibits inefficiencies, including those associated with the market power of a dominant agent—Sberbank. Reinforcement of Sberbank's dominance on the market in the period 1994‐98 (before the August default combined with financial crisis) is explained as a consequence of asymmetric information about the probability of bankruptcy of a new bank. Under asymmetric information a new private bank has to provide specific quality signals in order to attract depositors. Two major lines of inquiry are the criteria for choosing forms of savings, including that of a bank in which to deposit money, by Russian citizens, and banks' advertising strategies to confirm the factual risk of default. Within the conceptual framework of a game with separating equilibrium, we analyse the behaviour of the agents on both supply and demand sides in the market. We find that there is evidence of using advertising as a tool of quality signalling at a certain phase of the Russian individual savings market's development.     

Comparative advantage,demand for external finance,and financial development

This paper analyzes the effect of comparative advantage in international trade on a country's level of financial development. Countries with comparative advantage in financially intensive goods experience a higher demand for external finance, and therefore financial development. By contrast, financial development is lower in countries that primarily export goods which do not rely on external finance. We use disaggregated trade data to develop a measure of a country's external finance need of exports, and demonstrate this effect empirically. In order to overcome the simultaneity problem, we develop a novel instrumentation strategy based on the exogenous geographic determinants of trade patterns.     

The Limits of Arbitrage

Textbook arbitrage in financial markets requires no capital and entails no risk. In reality, almost all arbitrage requires capital, and is typically risky. Moreover, professional arbitrage is conducted by a relatively small number of highly specialized investors using other people's capital. Such professional arbitrage has a number of interesting implications for security pricing, including the possibility that arbitrage becomes ineffective in extreme circumstances, when prices diverge far from fundamental values. The model also suggests where anomalies in financial markets are likely to appear, and why arbitrage fails to eliminate them.     

Judicial Reform

A review of the evidence on judicial reform across countriesshows that those seeking to improve economic performance shouldnot focus on judicial efficiency alone but on independence aswell. It also shows that the level of resources poured intothe judicial system and the accessibility of the system havelittle impact on judicial performance. Most of the problem ofjudicial stagnation stems from inadequate incentives and overlycomplicated procedures. Incentive-oriented reforms that seekto increase accountability, competition, and choice seem tobe the most effective in tackling the problem. But incentivesalone do not correct systematic judicial failure. Chronic judicialstagnation calls for simplifying procedures and increasing theirflexibility.      

Valuation and Control in Venture Finance

This paper presents the model of a relationship between a venture capitalist and an entrepreneur engaged in the formation of a new firm. I assume that the entrepreneur derives private nonpecuniary benefits from having some control over the firm. I show that to separate the entrepreneur's value of control from the firm's expected payoff, the venture capitalist demands disproportionately highercontrol rights than the size of his equity investment. The entrepreneur is compensated for a greater loss of control through better terms of financing, ability to extract higher rents from asymmetric information, and improved risk sharing.     

Historical simulation approach to the estimation of stochastic discount factor models

We propose an approach to the estimation of the parameters of stochastic discount factor (SDF) models which is based on the idea that the next period joint distribution of the variables in a SDF and asset returns can be well approximated by their joint historical distribution. The estimates of the SDF parameters may therefore be found as the values of the parameters at which the mean of the historical distribution of the product of the SDF with an asset return equals one. Each time period, the estimates are updated using the most recent periods of data and hence can change over time. This method can be viewed as an alternative to the approaches that specify a particular functional form relating the SDF parameters to proxies for the state of the world.     

Hedging, Familiarity and Portfolio Choice

We exploit the restrictions of intertemporal portfolio choicein the presence of nonfinancial income risk to test hedgingusing the information contained in the actual portfolio of theinvestor. We use a unique data set of Swedish investors withinformation broken down at the investor level and into variouscomponents of investor wealth, income, and demographic characteristics.Portfolio holdings are identified at the stock level. We showthat investors do not hedge but invest in stocks closely relatedto their nonfinancial income. We explain this with familiarity,that is, the tendency to concentrate holdings in stocks to whichthe investor is geographically or professionally close or thathe has held for a long period. We show that familiarity is nota behavioral bias, but is information driven. Familiarity-basedinvestment allows investors to earn higher returns than theywould have otherwise earned if they had hedged.     

Assessing the maintenance of savings sufficiency over the first decade of retirement

The goal of securing adequate resources in retirement dominates the ongoing debate regarding social security reforms designed to accommodate the demographic transformation and to provide minimum income security to retired workers. Policy proposals concerned with the implication of future public sector costs emphasize greater individual responsibility for meeting retirement resource goals. Proposals seeking minimum living standards imply expansion of public fiscal liabilities. We contribute to this discussion by examining the extent to which a cohort of US retirees were able to meet resource adequacy standards at the time of retirement, and to maintain initial levels of resources over the first decade of retirement. We compare annuitized wealth, including social security and pension wealth, to two adequacy standards—a household’s preretirement earnings (reflecting the goal of maintaining preretirement consumption) and the US poverty threshold (reflecting the goal of meeting minimum consumption standards). We analyze the relationship of individual characteristics to changes in resource adequacy over time, and identify the characteristics of those who gain and lose resources over the first decade of retirement. Finally, we simulate the effects on adequacy and public sector benefit costs of four social insurance policy proposals. This research was partially supported by a grant from the Social Security Administration. Additional support was provided by the Institute for Research on Poverty, the Graduate School and the Center for Demography and Ecology all at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Conclusions represent those of the authors alone and not of the funding agencies.     

Computer-assisted analysis of public discourse: a case study of the precautionary principle in the US and UK press

Content analysis of newspaper publications has become a major scientific method of the analysis of public discourse. Within the framework of content analysis, we suggest a computer-assisted method to extract the most important topics of this discourse in an objective, quantifiable manner. The method combines frequency and proximity analysis of the text population, selection of the key words, text modification based on a key word dictionary, factor analysis of the modified text population, and factor interpretation. We illustrate the concept by applying the method to study the major topics discussed in the US and UK prestige press that relate to the precautionary principle. Precautionary principle is a concept of preventing environmental damage under scientific uncertainty. The analysis demonstrates the difference between the major topics of the precautionary principle discussion in the US and UK press. In the US, it revolves around an emphasis on the action on global warming, international trade on genetically modified food, environment pollution, the risks of new technologies, and cost-benefit analysis (CBA). In the UK, the major discussion topics include threats to agriculture and farmers, climate change economics, national and EU regulations, and commercial fishing. Other discussion topics, such as health and pollution, water safety regulations, meat safety and trade, and GMO regulations are shared between the countries. The US sample demonstrates more negative views towards the precautionary principle, which is presented as a threat to the US economic interests.