中国扩大内需应对外部经济挑战

中国在一月份公布了2007年的经济数据,国内生产总值（GDP）较上年增长11．4%,连续第二年超过11％。这一增长水平即使以中国近年来的标准衡量也是相当高的。但鉴于全球经济增速有可能在美国的带动下出现放缓,中国政府的施政重点现在看来很有可能发生转变,从遏制因经济蓬勃发展而引发的通货膨胀和其它过热现象,转到为创造足够的就业机会而维持经济的必要增长上来。中国政府计划今年新增1000万个城镇就业机会。这意味着政府将更加注重内需对经济增长的拉动作用。而很长时间以来对外贸易一直是中国经济增长的主要推动力。     

Planning for housing in the post-Barker era: affordability, household formation, and tenure choice

The Barker Review of Housing Supply recommended the greateruse of market indicators as the basis for providing sufficientland for future housing requirements. Worsening affordabilitywould be a sign that more land is required. However, the traditionalapproach to land release used by planners is based on trendhousehold projections. The paper shows that this will typicallylead to worsening affordability over time. The paper, therefore,develops an alternative economic model more suitable to thepost-Barker era, covering both household formation and tenurechoice. The model is used to analyse a range of policy issues,including raising home-ownership rates and home-ownership sustainability.     

Beyond HIPC: What are the Prospects for Debt Sustainability?

Abstract: The pronouncement by the G‐8 Summit at Gleneagles in July 2005 on debt cancellation under the HIPC Initiative, affirmed by the G‐8 Ministers of Finance in Washington in September, should signal the beginning of debt relief for the world's heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC), mostly African. It is expected that debt cancellation should return the beneficiary countries to debt sustainability and afford their governments the fiscal space to invest in basic infrastructure and social services. Countries could significantly enhance their prospects for maintaining debt sustainability mainly by adopting debt management strategies that de‐emphasize excessive borrowing, checking the expansion of unproductive public sector activities and the associated fiscal deficits, financial restructuring to reduce the bias against autonomous capital flows, and taking deliberate actions to expand exports.     

Decomposing the market,industry, and firm components of profitability: implications for forecasts of profitability

Academics and practitioners frequently highlight that overall market and industry performance is an important aspect of a firm’s profitability. However, few studies allow for the decomposition of a firm’s profitability into market, industry, and idiosyncratic components, and those that do often assume that the market and industry components are cross-sectional constants. In this study, we allow for variation in firm-specific sensitivities to market, industry, and idiosyncratic economic shocks, and then assess whether and when this decomposition results in improved forecasts of profitability. For the overall sample, we find significant improvements in terms of the magnitude of forecast errors and the frequency with which forecasts based on the decomposed values are superior versus forecasts using only total profitability. Across the sample as a whole, decomposing profitability in the forecasting process results in more accurate forecasts greater than two-thirds of the time (increasing to almost 80% within certain subsamples). Our results provide strong support for the role that firm-specific measures of market and industry profitability play in predicting a firm’s future performance, as well as highlighting settings where the decomposition provides the greatest benefit in terms of predicting future changes in profitability.     

Excess heterogeneity, endogeneity and index restrictions

A discrete or continuous outcome is determined by a structural function in which the effect of some variables of interest is transmitted through a scalar index. Multiple sources of stochastic variation can appear as arguments of the structural function, but not in the index. There may be endogeneity, that is observable and unobservable variables may not be independently distributed. Conditions are provided under which there is local identification of measures of the relative sensitivity of the index to variations in pairs of its possibly endogenous arguments, namely ratios of partial derivatives of the index.     

Communication of Private Information and the Valuation of Initial Public Offerings in Singapore

This study examines a sample of 108 initial public offerings in Singapore between 1987 and 1993, and documents the effects of four channels of entrepreneurial communication, that is, retained ownership, audited report, auditor choice and underwriter choice on the valuation of new issues. Our results indicate that retained ownership and book value of equity are significantly and positively associated with the valuation of initial public offerings in Singapore. Underwriter choice and auditor choice are not significant in explaining the valuation of initial public offerings. Issues listed on the Main Board are valued higher than those on Sesdaq (Stock Exchange of Singapore Dealing and Automated Quotation). Firms choosing the auction system are valued higher than those choosing the fixed system.
This paper provides evidence on the valuation of new issues in an emerging market in the Asia-Pacific region. The results are of interest to investors, investment bankers and companies seeking a listing on the Singapore Stock Exchange. We provide some insights on how new issues in the Singapore market are valued.     

The European Constitutional Settlement

This paper argues first that a synthesis of the theories of endogenous policy formation, non‐coercive interstate bargaining theory, and international regime theory provides a plausible account of the path of European integration, with little role for explanations stressing geopolitical or ideological factors, international mediation, or political entrepreneurship. Moreover, these theories – which embrace economic fundamentals as driving factors – help explain the ‘sequencing’ of the European Union, especially in regard to successive enlargements. However, the paper concludes that the process of European integration appears to have reached an ‘institutional plateau’, for which incremental change based on the current ‘constitutional compromise’ appears to be the only plausible equilibrium.