Does One Size Fit All? A currency union with asymmetric transmissions and a stability pact

The theory of optimal currency areas stresses that a single currency zone should have symmetry across shocks and structures. What happens if the monetary transmission mechanisms differ so that a common monetary policy has different effects in different places? Using a fully specified econometric model, we find that such asymmetries are likely to destabilise the business cycle and put countries out of phase with each other in a way that cannot be corrected by deficit-constrained national fiscal policies. Market discipline, however, could achieve this. Hence, the question is whether the markets would create sufficient discipline on their own.     

State‐Society Synergy and Export Sophistication

This paper contributes to the recent research on “export sophistication,” or the composition of a country's export portfolio. The central question of the current study is what determines a country's level of export sophistication. I argue that a synergetic relationship between state and society positively contributes to the level of export sophistication. The logic behind the argument is that the socially optimal level of investment in new products can only be realized if both the firm and the government find it individually profitable to carry out the investment. In cases whereby either or both lacks private incentive to invest, higher synergy between public and private sectors makes such joint investments more likely to occur. This logic is formally illustrated using a simultaneous game with incomplete information. The central hypothesis is tested using time series cross‐sectional data. The key empirical novelty of this paper is the construction of a “synergy index” based on Peter Evans' conceptualization of the term. Overall, the data give good support to the hypothesis. This relationship is particularly robust for the subsample of countries with intermediate levels of synergy. Furthermore, there is evidence suggesting that state‐society synergy is subject to diminishing returns as its values get higher.     

Planning Histories and Practices of Circulating Urban Knowledge

This symposium creates and stimulates new dialogue and cross‐disciplinary exchange between planning theorists and geographers in researching the transfer of urban policy and planning models, ideas and techniques. The symposium challenges a restricted historical focus in much of the emerging geographical literature on urban policy mobilities by drawing on a rich tradition within planning history of exploring and documenting the trans‐urban travel of planning ideas and models over the last 150 years. It is argued that this longer‐term perspective is required to highlight important historical continuities and institutional legacies to contemporary urban policy circuits and pathways and to question what is particularly new, distinct and innovative about an intensification in the travel of urban ideas, plans and policies over the past decade — and the accompanying scholarly interest in them. The symposium also uses the emphasis on particular details and specific experiences within planning histories to foreground and develop approaches, particularly from recent geographical scholarship, that investigate the contingent and embodied practices and wider epistemic contexts that enable — or hinder — contemporary policy transfer.     

Instrumental values

This paper studies identification of partial differences of nonseparable structural functions. A model is defined which admits structural functions exhibiting a degree of monotonicity with respect to a latent variate. The model identifies partial differences when there are instrumental values of covariates over which the latent variate exhibits a local quantile invariance, and a local order condition holds. The result is useful when covariates exhibit discrete variation, as arises often in practice, and when restricting latent variates and covariates to be statistically independent is unpalatable. The results are illustrated with data from the returns-to-schooling study of Angrist and Krueger [1991. Does compulsory schooling attendance affect schooling and earnings? Quarterly Journal of Economics 106, 979–1014].     

Earnings benchmark hierarchy

We examine the hierarchy of earnings benchmarks in Australia. Our results demonstrate a disconnect between the actions managers appear to take and the market reaction to firms exceeding or just missing earnings benchmarks. The actions of managers appear consistent with them acting in a manner to avoid making losses and earnings decreases. On the other hand, the market reacts in a manner where the analysts’ earnings forecast is at the top of the earnings benchmark hierarchy. However, for firms without analyst coverage, the reporting of positive earnings is the predominant earnings benchmark.     

COUNTING THE COST OF HIGHER BASE RATES

It is a brave Chancellor of the Exchequer who raises interest rates when inflation is at record low levels and there are few signs of overheating. But Kenneth Clarke is clearly trying to give substance to his commitment - made in June's Mansion House Speech - to pursue stable monetary and fiscal policies. In that speech, the Chancellor told his City audience that the government had "not created the conditions for the strongest recovery in Europe in order to throw it away by creating yet another boom followed by bust".
There is widespread agreement with the Chancellor's objectives. But the difficult question for economic management is how high interest rates will need to go in order to contain inflation and keep the economy on course. In this Forecast Release, we examine this question as well as assessing the likely impact of the first rise in base rates for five years.     

A financial planning model for presidential candidates

The necessity of entering a sequence of interrelated state primaries has forced presidential candidates to be much more deliberate in planning campaign finances. This paper presents a linear programming model for optimal allocation of time and money to each primary in order to maximize the number of delegates won. The model attempts to quantify and exploit the relationships between performance in early primaries and performance in later primaries, which has heretofore been labeled the “snowball effect.” Finally, the model, whose major use would be in overall strategic planning, is illustrated with an example.     

Homeownership and Child Welfare

Recent studies have concluded that homeownership is beneficial to children. This result is important because it is used to justify large government subsidies that encourage homeownership. We reexamine the results of two of the most prominent of these studies using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, Public Use Microsample, and National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data. We extend this research by controlling for residential mobility, wealth, dwelling type and vehicle ownership, as well as by using a differences in differences methodology to deal with possible treatment effects bias. We find that the beneficial effects of homeownership previously measured are substantially reduced or eliminated by controlling for these factors. We confirm these results using data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study.