Will Labour’s Economic Programme Work?

If Labour is elected to government on 1 May, it will inherit the lowest inflation of any incoming government over the last fifty years but the highest unemployment. At the same time, public borrowing is running at an unsustainable high level. In this article, Andrew Sentance examines Labour's plans to expand employment while reducing public borrowing and containing inflation. He argues that Labour's economic programme could work but a number of pitfalls need to be avoided. Monetary policy will need to be tightened after the Election and the fiscal squeeze implied by Conservative spending plans maintained – if necessary through higher taxes. The benefits from Labour's employment policies could also be undermined by a high minimum wage, particularly if applied to young workers.     

Introducing ‘Journeys Home’

Homelessness, despite being a major social policy issue in Australia, is an area that is not well served by data. Most sorely lacking is any large‐scale panel study that follows a broad sample of persons with recent experience of homelessness and unstable housing histories. In 2010, the Australian Government set about rectifying this deficiency when it commissioned the Melbourne Institute to undertake a new panel study, now known as ‘Journeys Home’. This study draws its sample from the population of Centrelink income‐support recipients, targeting persons identified in the administrative data as having recent experience of homelessness, as well as others with similar characteristics who may be vulnerable to housing difficulties in the future. This article summarises the design of this new study and reports on fieldwork outcomes from the first two waves of data collection.     

Do household definitions matter in survey design? Results from a randomized survey experiment in Mali

Household definitions used in multi-topic household surveys vary between surveys but have potentially significant implications for household composition, production, and poverty statistics. Standard definitions of the household usually include some intersection of keywords relating to residency requirements, common food consumption, and intermingling of income or production decisions. Despite best practices intending to standardize the definition of the household, it is unclear which types of definitions or which intersections of keywords in a definition result in different household compositions. This paper conducts a randomized survey experiment of four different household definitions in Mali to examine the implications for household-level statistics. This approach permits analysis of the trade-offs between alternative definition types. We find that additional keywords in definitions increase rather than decrease household size and significantly alters household composition. Definitions emphasizing common consumption or joint production increase estimates of the levels of household assets and consumption statistics, but not on per adult equivalency asset and consumption statistics, relative to open-ended definitions of the household. In contrast, definition type did not affect production statistics in levels, though we observe significant differences in per adult equivalency terms. Our findings suggest that variations in household definition have implications for measuring household welfare and production.     

Bias-corrected estimates of reduction of post-surgery length of stay and corresponding cost savings through the widespread national implementation of fast-tracking after liver transplantation: a quasi-experimental study

Background: Fast-tracking is an approach adopted by Mayo Clinic in Florida’s (MCF) liver transplant (LT) program, which consists of early tracheal extubation and transfer of patients to surgical ward, eliminating a stay in the intensive care unit in select patients. Since adopting this approach in 2002, MCF has successfully fast-tracked 54.3% of patients undergoing LT.

Objectives: This study evaluated the reduction in post-operative length of stay (LOS) that resulted from the fast-tracking protocol and assessed the potential cost saving in the case of nationwide implementation.

Methods: A propensity score for fast-tracking was generated based on MCF liver transplant databases during 2011–2013. Various propensity score matching algorithms were used to form control groups from the United Network of Organ Sharing Standard Analysis and Research (STAR) file that had comparable demographic characteristics and health status to the treatment group identified in MCF. Multiple regression and matching estimators were employed for evaluation of the post-surgery LOS. The algorithm generated from the analysis was also applied to the STAR data to determine the proportion of patients in the US who could potentially be candidates for fast-tracking, and the potential savings.

Results: The effect of the fast-tracking on the post-transplant LOS was estimated at approximately from 2.5 (p-value?=?0.001) to 3.2 (p-value?Conclusion: The fast-track program was found to be effective in reducing post-transplant LOS, although the reduction appeared to be less than previously reported. Nationwide implementation of fast-tracking could result in substantial cost savings without compromising the patient outcome.     

Does One Size Fit All? A currency union with asymmetric transmissions and a stability pact

The theory of optimal currency areas stresses that a single currency zone should have symmetry across shocks and structures. What happens if the monetary transmission mechanisms differ so that a common monetary policy has different effects in different places? Using a fully specified econometric model, we find that such asymmetries are likely to destabilise the business cycle and put countries out of phase with each other in a way that cannot be corrected by deficit-constrained national fiscal policies. Market discipline, however, could achieve this. Hence, the question is whether the markets would create sufficient discipline on their own.     

Strategic candidacy for multivalued voting procedures

Dutta et al. (Econometrica 69 (2001) 1013) (Dutta, Jackson, and Le Breton—DJLeB) initiate the study of manipulation of voting procedures by a candidate who withdraws from the election. A voting procedure is candidate stable if this is never possible. We extend the DJLeB framework by allowing: (a) the outcome of the procedure to be a set of candidates; (b) some or all of the voters to have weak preference orderings of the candidates. When there are at least three candidates, any strongly candidate stable voting selection satisfying a weak unanimity condition is characterized by a serial dictatorship. This result generalizes Theorem 4 of DJLeB.     

Nobelity and novelty: Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott’s contributions viewed from Vienna

The awarding of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2004 to Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott represents an opportunity to evaluate their contributions in light of Austrian economics. We lay out the basics of their contributions—the general equilibrium approach to economic fluctuations and the game theoretic approach to policy—and argue that they have tenets similar to those of Austrianism. We argue that their methodology parallels Austrian methodology in several significant ways that have gone unnoticed. We conclude that Kydland and Prescott’s Nobel Prize suggests Austrian approaches can have a more prominent impact than they have had in the past.