The Fiscal Straitjacket

Andrew Sentance concludes that it will be difficult for the new British Government to limit government borrowing without raising taxes.     

The impacts of Hong Kong’s Currency Board reforms on the interbank market

Among the economies with a Currency Board System (CBS), Hong Kong (HK) is probably the one with the largest and most developed financial sector, as well as the highest capital mobility. Hence, studying HK’s CBS is not only crucial to HK, but also important for the understanding of the modern CBS. This paper outlines the major monetary reforms in HK since the late 1980s. The impacts of these reforms and the 1997–1998 Asian Financial Crisis are then examined empirically. We focus on the differentials between the US and HK interbank interest rates. We assume the conditional-mean equation follows an autoregressive process and the conditional-variance equation follows a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process. This model captures the time-varying level and volatility of the differential. In light of the empirical results we provide an assessment of the reforms in HK.     

The persistence of knowledge‐based advantage: an empirical test for product performance and technological knowledge

Resource‐based theory maintains that intrinsic characteristics of resources and capabilities, such as their tacitness, complexity, and specificity, prevent imitation and thereby prolong exceptional performance. There is little direct evidence to verify these claims, yet a substantial literature encourages firms to formulate competitive strategies around resources with these attributes. Further, work outside the resource‐based tradition suggests that these attributes can slow innovation, and it is not clear when this effect outweighs the benefits of inimitability. This paper seeks to clarify whether and how the complexity, tacitness, and specificity of a firm's knowledge affect the persistence of its performance advantages. We find that the complexity and tacitness of technological knowledge are useful for defending a firm's major product improvements from imitation, but not for protecting its minor improvements. The design specificity of technological knowledge delayed imitation of minor improvements in this study. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cross Entropy Estimation of the Almost Ideal Demand System for Greek Consumption

Cross entropy is used to estimate the Almost Ideal Demand System for consumption in Greece. The entropy estimates are found to improve upon the SUR estimates. It is recommended that practitioners consider employing entropy based procedures in systems where the data set is small, where there are a large number of parameters, or where the data are deficient.     

North-South interdependence: An economic-physical interpretation

Summary The article gives a physical-economic interpretation to a number of economic North-South interdependent relations. Basic research evidence at the man-machine level was an inspiration; the output could only be expressed in physical specification terms. The corresponding generalizations are in product complexity, speciality terms also. This terminology is conducive to far-ranging extrapolations and generalizations. It eliminates the problem of pricing at the product level for all aggregation levels; therefore the fundamental economic relations are better expressed. The article concludes with a mega extrapolation in graphical terms, which relates the product and implied technological capability in the world, expressed in physical terms, for country groups ordered by three development levels. Correspondingly the comparative advantage and inter-industry trade areas at the world product level are shown.The author acknowledges valid comments of two anonymous referees and financial support by DGIS to the Technology Scientific Foundation for the research of which this paper reports certain aspects only. This paper came out as a working paper TSF 84-1. An earlier version was presented at the International Economic Association Meeting in Madrid, Sept. 1983. Clearly, only the author bears responsibility for the ideas and interpretations presented in the following text.     

Markets and pro-poor agricultural growth: insights from livelihood and informal rural economy models in Malawi

This article presents the development of a set of programming models describing the major features of different rural livelihoods and of the informal rural economy they together make up in Malawi. The models allow for differentiated responses by different household types to change and for the partial equilibrium effects of consequent supply, demand, and price adjustments in labor and grain markets. The models provide insights into the relations between own‐farm and nonown‐farm activities in different households' livelihoods and in the informal rural economy as a whole, and are used to investigate possible impacts of increasing cash crop prices and of a more open rural economy. Impacts of these changes on the poor are found to be critically dependent upon supply and demand elasticities in labor and grain markets, but the poor could potentially suffer significant losses from increased openness of the local economy leading to increased expenditure by less poor households on imported goods and services.     

The economics of shortage and problems of reform in Chinese industry

This paper employs the economics of shortage framework to examine post-Mao reforms in Chinese state-owned industry. Performance has been disappointing because reforms through 1985 failed to fundamentally alter economic agent behavior. The “soft” budget constraints at the enterprise and local government levels continue to generate “quantity” and “expansion” drives. The resultant inflationary pressures have necessitated administrative interventions and thwarted reform progress. The Maoist legacy of active participation by local governments in economic management is high-lighted as a major obstacle to the elimination of paternalism in state-enterprise relations.