Structural default model with mutual obligations

In this paper we consider mutual obligations in an interconnected bank system and analyze their impact on the joint and marginal survival probabilities for individual banks. We also calculate prices of the corresponding credit default swaps and first-to-default swaps. To make the role of mutual obligations more transparent, we develop a simple structural default model with banks’ assets driven by correlated multidimensional Brownian motion with drift. We calculate closed form expressions for many quantities of interest and use them for the efficient model calibration. We demonstrate that mutual obligations have noticeable impact on the system behavior.     

Plataformas digitales y transformación del trabajo autónomo en la Federación de Rusia: análisis longitudinal a lo largo de un decenio

En este artículo se estudia la evolución del mercado de trabajo en línea en la Federación de Rusia y todo el espacio postsoviético, a partir de datos únicos obtenidos mediante cuatro rondas de encuestas realizadas en 2009, 2011, 2014 y 2019 en la principal plataforma rusófona de trabajo creativo basado en conocimientos. Se observan algunas tendencias importantes: descentralización espacial, diversificación ocupacional, feminización, maduración, aumento del nivel de estudios y desajuste de la calificación, consolidación de la vida profesional autónoma, plataformización y legalización. A la luz de esos resultados, se analizan sus posibles repercusiones en materia de políticas para el futuro desarrollo del trabajo de plataformas en la Federación de Rusia.     

‘Sweet deals’: State-owned enterprises,corruption and repeated contracts in public procurement

We show how a price analysis of stable relations between customer and supplier in the public procurement of homogeneous goods can help differentiate opportunistic from honest behaviour among economic agents. We consider two types of stable relations: repeated procurements and connections based on the state ownership of suppliers. On the basis of a large dataset on the procurement of granulated sugar in Russia from 2011 to 2013, we find that for private suppliers, prices of repeated contracts were lower compared to one-time deals when procured through more transparent procedures and higher when procured through non-transparent procedures. For non-transparent procedures, we observe significant overpricing of contracts with state-owned suppliers compared to private suppliers, especially in the case of repeated contracts, whereas for competitive e-auctions, there is only a small difference between the contract prices of state-owned suppliers and private suppliers.     

Tariff evasion and rules of origin violations under the Canada‐U.S. Free Trade Agreement

Abstract Using product‐level data on trade between Canada and the U.S., this paper presents evidence of tariff evasion and violation of the rules of origin occurring under the Canada‐U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA). It shows that more imports go unreported at the destination country when tariffs are higher. Consistent with the tariff evasion hypothesis, this result implies that the trade creation effect of a free trade agreement may in fact be due to less underreporting. Further, this paper shows that the larger Canadian tariff preference margin for the U.S. is associated with more goods originating in third countries being transshipped through the U.S. territory for re‐export. The preference margin is also positively correlated with the value of excess imports from the U.S., which qualify for preferential treatment. Both results suggest the presence of persistent violations of CUSFTA’s rules of origin.     

The Economics of Maintenance for Real Estate Investments

We propose a theory of urban decay. Following a negative real estate demand shock, property managers optimally suspend maintenance and the probability that they ever restart can be modest. Because maintenance expenditures are proportionately less risky than are the incremental building profits they generate, managers impose a more demanding profit standard on maintenance than on the initial investment. This differential in profit standards means that rather than maintain existing investments, property managers favor new investments, which, if marginally acceptable, they also leave unmaintained. Contractually required maintenance ( e.g ., for publicly subsidized real estate investments), increases the minimum profit for the initial investment acceptance and discourages subsidized real estate investments in favor of unsubsidized investments. However, the required profit for acceptance of a permanently maintained investment is below the profit boundary for maintenance if maintenance is not contractually required. Consequently, the subsidy that induces the investment is least expensive if maintenance is not required, more expensive if maintenance is permanently required and most expensive if maintenance is induced immediately after initial construction but thereafter is at the discretion of the manager. All of our findings are strongest for poorer quality properties.     

Political Risk Affects Real Estate Markets

Using data from the recent referendum in Britain to leave the E.U., we document a link between political uncertainty and real estate values. Specifically, we find that real estate values in areas of London that have a high concentration of E.U. passport holders declined significantly more than the rest of the city following the Brexit vote. In addition, we find that areas with concentration of highly-educated residents also experienced a disproportionately large price decline. These findings suggest that real estate markets are forward looking, incorporate information quickly, and are segmented.

     

Pricing swaps and options on quadratic variation under stochastic time change models—discrete observations case

We use a forward characteristic function approach to price variance and volatility swaps and options on swaps. The swaps are defined via contingent claims whose payoffs depend on the terminal level of a discretely monitored version of the quadratic variation of some observable reference process. As such a process we consider a class of Levy models with stochastic time change. Our analysis reveals a natural small parameter of the problem which allows a general asymptotic method to be developed in order to obtain a closed-form expression for the fair price of the above products. As examples, we consider the CIR clock change, general affine models of activity rates and the 3/2 power clock change, and give an analytical expression of the swap price. Comparison of the results obtained with a familiar log-contract approach is provided.