Arbitrage opportunities on the road to stabilization and reform

During the second half of 1993, when far-reaching structural reforms had left Mexican authorities bereft of policy instruments and macroeconomic stabilization had limited their policy options, two private Mexican banks were issuing short-term Euro-dollar debt at a cost substantially below the yield on dollar-linked government securities of similar maturity. A detailed analysis of the authorities’ policy dilemmas, together with a theoretical model that formalizes them, suggests that this negative spread represented arbitrage opportunities for the two banks. It further indicates that similar opportunities may arise again as more countries embark on programs of stabilization and reform.     

A variation of the Azéma martingale and drawdown options

In this paper, we derive a variation of the Azéma martingale using two approaches—a direct probabilistic method and another by projecting the Kennedy martingale onto the filtration generated by the drawdown duration. This martingale links the time elapsed since the last maximum of the Brownian motion with the maximum process itself. We derive explicit formulas for the joint densities of , which are the first time the drawdown period hits a prespecified duration, the value of the Brownian motion, and the maximum up to this time. We use the results to price a new type of drawdown option, which takes into account both dimensions of drawdown risk—the magnitude and the duration.     

Determinants of spreads on new high yield bonds of shipping companies

This paper investigates determinants of pricing of new high yield bond offerings of shipping companies. New high yield bond offerings issued by shipping companies in the US market, during the period 1993–1998, are used in the investigation. The empirical results suggest that credit rating is the major determinant of the price spread of the bond offerings. Financial leverage and shipping market conditions also account for a significant part of the price variability.     

Emil Lederer and Joseph Schumpeter on Economic Growth,Technology and Business Cycles

This paper compares Joseph Schumpeter and Emil Lederer with respect to their visions concerning the notions of economic growth, technology and business cycles. Their theoretical investigations in a number of thematic areas seem to converge to similar views. More precisely, both Schumpeter and Lederer regard the capitalist economy as a dynamic system where the introduction of innovations is its distinctive characteristic. In such a system, static analysis based on the concept of equilibrium is useful as an expository device to describe the adjustment mechanisms of the economic system. They also paid attention to the emergence of large oligopolistic firms and considered this development as being interwoven with technological progress. Both economists used similar arguments to emphasize the link between economic development and technological change. In their analyses, Schumpeter and Lederer referred to psychological factors motivating the entrepreneur, in order to explain the forces that set in motion the process of innovation and thus economic development. The concept of technological unemployment is also described in a similar manner by both of them. Regarding the issue of business cycles, Schumpeter and Lederer considered them to be a result of endogenous processes within a capitalist economy. Lederer in his late works, argued in a way analogous to Schumpeter, that economic fluctuations are caused from the disruptions created by innovations, which are introduced discontinuously into the economic system. Conclusively, Schumpeter and Lederer delivered theses which are similar in scope and conclusions probably because they were developed in the same social, political, theoretical and ideological environment and were also well acquainted with each other’s ideas.     

The social dimension and cohesion: Complementary or contradictory?

It is again being argued that the low labour costs and social standards in countries on the periphery of the EC—Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain—jeopardise employment in the northern EC countries and the social safety net they have constructed. A common social policy harmonising employment and social standards to safeguard the social status quo is therefore being advocated. How valid is this argument? What consequences would the implementation of such a “social action programme” have for the economies on the periphery? How are the Community’s objectives with regard to cohesion and social policy to be reconciled?     

Comparison of seasonal estimation methods in multi-item short-term forecasting

This paper addresses the issue of estimating seasonal indices for multi-item, short-term forecasting, based upon both individual time series estimates and groups of similar time series. This development of the joint use of individual and group seasonal estimation is extended in two directions. One class of methods is derived from the procedures developed for combining forecasts. The second employs the general class of Stein Rules to obtain shrinkage estimates of seasonal components. A comparative evaluation has been undertaken of several versions of these methods, based upon a sample of retail sales data. The results favour these newly developed methods and provide some interesting insights for practical implementation.     

Revenue trade-offs: Implications for state Government finance

Modifications in state level fiscal structures to address inequitable tax burdens or the issue of public sector growth have been accomplished by substituting one tax for another or by adjusting rates of existing taxes. This paper presents this fiscal adjustment process on the state level in terms of a policy in which complementary or competitive taxes are jointly determined as a tax mix in a process of revenue trade-offs.     

Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Changes: International Evidence

We investigate interdependencies between stock returns and exchange rate changes for six industrialised countries, namely the US, the UK, Japan, Germany, France and Canada, by testing for volatility spillovers using a bivariate EGARCH model. Volatility spillovers from stock returns to exchange rate changes are found for all countries except Germany. These spillovers are symmetric in nature. No evidence is found of volatility spillovers from exchange rate changes to stock returns for any country. Spillovers from stock returns to exchange rate changes have increased since October 1987. This finding is consistent with the notion that international financial markets have become increasingly integrated.