The uses of history in policy analysis and strategic planning

History is a useful, if not necessary, adjunct to the policy analysis process. Although the policy options are different at various periods in history, we can learn from the examples of the past. The Japanese experience or coordination between government and the universities is examined along with the American experience since World War II.     

Reforming the par-value system

Zusammenfassung Zur Reform des Wechselkurs-Systems. — Der Aufsatz untersucht die Einstellung der Exekutiv-Direktoren des Internationalen W?hrungsfonds zum Wechselkurs-System. Die Direktoren sind der Ansicht, da\ man die W?hrungsparit?ten als ?feste Bezugspunkte? verstehen sollte, die eine heilsame Disziplin für die Aufrechterhaltung der finanziellen Stabilit?t im Inland schaffen. Sie geben zwar zu, da\ ?ungebührlich verz?gerte? Parit?ts?nderungen gef?hrlich sein k?nnen, fürchten aber ?verfrühte? ?nderungen weit mehr, weil diese die monet?re Disziplin schw?chen k?nnten (w?hrend die Disziplin gerade durch das Trauma verz?gerter ?nderungen und W?hrungskrisen angeblich gest?rkt werden würde). Auch fürchten sie bei einem System flexibler Wechselkurse konkurrierende Abwertungen, w?hrend ihnen über- oder Unterbewertungen viel weniger Sorgen machen. Folglich lehnen die Exekutiv-Direktoren das Floating der Wechselkurse, erweiterte Bandbreiten und eine automatische Formel-Flexibilit?t ab. In diesem Aufsatz wird die Ansicht vertreten, da\ diese offizielle Haltung des Fonds zu starr ist und da\ eine gr?\ere Flexibilit?t der Wechselkurse (in der Form eines gleitenden Bandes) in das System eingebaut werden sollte, besonders auch im Hinblick auf die zunehmende Rolle der Sonderziehungsrechte. Die aus einer bedingungslosen Zuwendung von Reserven erwachsende Zunahme der Unabh?ngigkeit der nationalen Wirtschaftspolitik erfordert einen Anpassungsmechanismus, der h?ufige und kleine ?nderungen der Parit?ten vorsieht.

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Résumé Une réforme du système des parités monétaires. — Cet article discute l’attitude des directeurs exécutifs du Fonds Monétaire International en ce qui concerne le système des parités monétaires. Les directeurs sont d’avis qu’il faut comprendre les parités comme des ?points de repère fixes?, qui fournissent une discipline utile pour le maintien d’une stabilité financière à l’intérieur d’un pays. Tout en admettant que des modifications de parité ?ind?ment retardées? peuvent être dangereuses, les directeurs craignent bien plus les modifications ?prématurées?, qui risquent d’affaiblir la discipline monétaire (tandis que celle-ci est jugée être renforcée par la crainte traumatique même des modifications retardées et des crises monétaires). En outre, les directeurs craignent une concurrence de dépréciation des cours des changes sous un régime de taux flexibles, tandis qu’ils se préoccupent bien moins des surou sousévaluations. Par conséquent, ils rejettent le floating des cours des changes, les grandes marges, et l’ajustement automatique des parités au moyen de formules. Cet article explique que l’attitude officielle du Fonds est trop rigide et qu’il faudrait incorporer au système une plus grande flexibilité des cours des changes (en forme d’un glissement), surtout en vue du rêle toujours augmentant des droits spéciaux de tirage. L’indépendance accrue des politiques économiques nationales, qui résulte de l’allocation sans conditions de réserves, demande un mécanisme d’ajustement basé sur de petites et fréquentes modifications des parités.

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Resumen La reforma del sistema de paridad cambiaria. — En el artículo se discute la actidud de los directores ejecutivos del Fondo Monetario International con respecto al sistema de paridad cambiaria. Los directores ejecutivos sugieren que se utilicen las paridades como puntos fijos de referencia, de manera que se disponga de una marco de orientación para mantener la estabilidad financiera interior. No cabe duda de que demoras excesivas en los reajustes cambiarios pueden ser peligrosos, pero los directores temen mucho más reajustes prematuros, los cuales debilitarían la disciplina monetaria. Además, temen que surj an devaluaciones competitivas bajo un régimen de tipos de cambio flexibles, mientras que se ocupan mucho menos del problema de sobre y subvaluaciones. En consecuencia, los directores ejecutivos rechazan tipos de cambio flotantes, márgenes de variación cambiaria amplios y reajustes automáticos de la paridad de acuerdo con una fórmula determinada. El autor mantiene que esta actidud oficial del Fonto es demasiado rígida y que se debería introducir en el sistema una mayor flexibilidad de los tipos de cambio (en forma de una ?banda? móvil), particularmente en vista de la importancia creciente de los derechos especiales de giro. La mayor independencia de las políticas económicas nacionales, que resulta de asignaciones incondicionadas de réservas, requière un mecanismo de ajuste que se basa en variaciones frequentes y peque?as de la paridad.

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Riassunto Il riordinamento del sistema delle parità monetarie. — L’articolo esamina la posizione dei direttori gerenti del Fondo monetario internazionale riguardo al sistema delle parità monetarie. I direttori sono d’avviso che le parità monetarie si dovrebbero intendere come ?punti fissi di riferimento? che creino una salutare disciplina in relazione al mantenimento di una stabilità finanziaria all’interno. Essi ammettono invero che modifiche ?eccessivamente ritardate? delle parità possono essere pericolose, temono, peró, molto di più, modifiche ?premature? che indebolirebbero la disciplina monetaria (la quale sarebbe rafforzata presumibilmente già dal trauma di ritardate modifiche e crisi monetarie). Essi temono anche, in un sistema di parità flessibili, concorrenti svalutazioni dei cambi, mentre molto meno preoccupazioni danno loro soprao sottovalutazioni. Di conseguenza i direttori gerenti rigettano una fluttuazione dei cambi, larghi margini e adattamento automatico delle parità per mezzo di formule. L’articolo sostiene l’opinione che questo atteggiamento ufficiale del Fondo è troppo rigido e ehe una maggiore flessibilità dei cambi (nella forma di una fascia mobile) deve essere incorporata nel sistema, soprattutto anche in considerazione del ruolo crescente dei diritti speciali di prelievo. L’incremento dell’indipendenza di politiche economiche nazionali che deriva dall’incondizionata destinazione di riserve esige un meccanismo di adattamento che lavori con frequenti e piccole modificazioni delle parità.

     

How industries change

It's fairly obvious: To make intelligent investments within your organization, you need to understand how your whole industry is changing. But such knowledge is not always easy to come by. Companies misread clues and arrive at false conclusions all the time. To truly understand where your industry is headed, you have to take a long-term, high-level look at the context in which you do business, says Boston University professor Anita McGahan. She studied a variety of businesses from a cross section of industries over a ten-year period, examining how industry structure affects business profitability and investor returns. Her research suggests that industries evolve along one of four distinct trajectories--radical, progressive, creative, and intermediating--that set boundaries on what will generate profits in a business. These four trajectories are defined by two types of threats. The first is when new, outside alternatives threaten to weaken or make obsolete core activities that have historically generated profits for an industry. The second is when an industry's core assets--its resources, knowledge, and brand capital--fail to generate value as they once did. Industries undergo radical change when core assets and core activities are both threatened with obsolescence; they experience progressive change when neither are jeopardized. Creative change occurs when core assets are under threat but core activities are stable, and intermediating change happens when core activities are threatened while core assets retain their capacity to create value. If your company's innovation strategy is not aligned with your industry's change trajectory, your plan for achieving returns on invested capital cannot succeed, McGahan says. But if you understand which path you're on, you can determine which strategies will succeed and which will backfire.     

The Mortgage Acquisition Process: A Comparison of VRM and FRM Borrowers*

In recent years a number of alternative types of residential mortgage plans (i.e., alternative to the fixed-rate level-payment mortgage) have been proposed, and some of these have been available in various parts of the country. The most often proposed innovation has been the variable rate mortgage (VRM). The most widespread use of the VRM has been in the State of California, starting in early 1975. This paper discusses some of the results of a survey of over 1,700 homeowners in California that examined consumer reaction to the VRM. Specifically, this paper looks at the impact of the VRM on the mortgage acquisition process and the features of mortgages demanded by consumers. The data seem to indicate that the process of acquiring a mortgage has not been affected significantly by the availability of the VRM. However, the existence of alternative mortgage plans means that consumer choice can be broadened to include type of mortgage as well as lending institution.     

Discipline by objectives

Modern discipline is not punishment, but a shaper of behavior; it requires rules to be reviewed periodically against objectives to see if they are still productive in changing conditions and it allows the exceptional performer who is achieving exceptional results to be treated with far greater tolerance when it comes to violations.