Full information estimation and stochastic simulation of models with rational expectations

A computationally feasible method for the full information maximum-likelihood estimation of models with rational expectations is described in this paper. The stochastic simulation of such models is also described. The methods discussed in this paper should open the way for many more tests of the rational expectations hypothesis within macroeconomic models.     

The expectations management approach to stabilization in Argentina during 1976–1982

The main goals of the economic authorities in Argentina during 1976–1982 were to open the economy to foreign trade and to reduce inflation. The stabilization plan relied first on the control of money and wages, later on a preannounced schedule of a declining future exchange rate—actions that were supposed to be accompanied by a fiscal policy to reduce the public sector deficit.The stabilization plan was abandoned in the first quarter of 1981 for two reasons: an important financial crisis during the second quarter of 1980, and a deterioration of fiscal discipline that could no longer assure coherence between the deficit and the preannouncement schedule. The paper also argues that the political situation in Argentina undermined the credibility of the reforms and particularly the stabilization attempts. With the abandonment of the stabilization schedule, new commercial and exchange rate measures were gradually introduced, reversing the policy of opening the economy to foreign trade. The financial reform was reversed in 1982 with the virtual nationalization of deposits.The experience of Argentina suggests that capital inflows responding to interest rate arbitrage play a fundamental role in the short run dynamics of real exchange rates. They can promote the adjustment, or they can precipitate a run on the foreign exchange market. The lesson is that a stabilization plan based on the preannouncement of future exchange rates is highly risky for an economy like Argentina's.     

Elger Blühm (15.8.1923–3.2.2007)

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Residential segregation influences on the likelihood of black and white self-employment

This paper estimates a model of potential to enter self-employment based on individual, household and community-level factors. This paper focuses on the impact of segregation on the likelihood of black and white working-age adults to be self-employed workers rather than wage or salary workers. A multi-level analysis combined answers of over 400,000 respondents to the 1990 and 2000 Integrated Public Use Micro Sample (IPUMS) [Ruggles, S., Sobek, M., Alexander, T., Fitch, C., Goeken, R., Hall, P., King, M., Ronnander, C., 2004. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 3.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minnesota Population Center [producer and distributor], Minneapolis, MN] with structural measures from 327 metropolitan areas from the U.S. Census Bureau's Housing Patterns files [Iceland, J., Weinberg, D., Steinmetz, E., 2002. Racial and ethnic residential segregation in the United States, 1980–2000. Special Report Series, CENSR no.3, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC] to test the influence of each segregation process. The two residential segregation processes (relative clustering and exposure) were found to limit and enhance potential entry into self-employment, but in unique ways for each group.     

Otra Empanada en la Parilla: Examining the Role of Culture and Information Sharing in Chile and Australia

One of the biggest assets of a firm is its information base. Included in this information base is a knowledge of prior errors and failures. Extant research suggests that while the propensity to share “bad news” (i.e. a prior error) is dependent on the cost of sharing, the perceived value of that cost may be culturally dependent. One area of interest that has received substantial attention in the prior literature has been cross‐cultural differences in negative information sharing in general, as well as the particular context in which the individual's superior is either present or absent during the information‐sharing process. Our study examines the role of the two cultural values (individualism/collectivism and to a lesser extent power distance) in explaining national differences in information sharing. By focusing on a sample from Chile and Australia, we were able to remove the regional cultural dimension of face, which has been inherent in prior studies that used Greater China as the representative of a collectivist society. Results from our quasi experiment show that when a supervisor is present during information sharing, collectivist Chilean decision‐makers are more willing to share negative information with their colleagues than their counterpart and individualist Australian decision‐makers. Our results also show that when a supervisor is absent, both Australian and Chilean decision‐makers are willing to share more negative information but the increase in the Australian propensity is significantly greater than that of the Chileans.     

The value relevance and reliability of reported goodwill and identifiable intangible assets

We examine the value relevance and reliability of reported goodwill and identifiable intangible assets under Australian GAAP from 1994 to 2003; a period characterised by relatively restrictive accounting treatment for goodwill and relatively flexible accounting treatment for identifiable intangible assets. Our findings, using an adaptation of Feltham and Ohlson (1995), suggest that for the average Australian company the information presented with respect to both goodwill and identifiable intangible assets is value relevant but not reliable. In particular, goodwill tends to be reported conservatively while identifiable intangible assets are reported aggressively.