Pricing Sovereign Credit Risk of Poland: Evidence from the CDS Market

We analyze the market assessment of sovereign credit risk using a reduced-form model to price the credit default swap (CDS) spreads, thus enabling us to derive values for the probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) from the quotes of sovereign CDS contracts. We compare different specifications of the models allowing for both fixed and time-varying LGD, and we use these values to analyze the sovereign credit risk of Polish debt throughout the period of a global financial crisis. Our results suggest the presence of a low LGD and a relatively high PD during a recent financial crisis.     

Poles' evaluation of the benefits of the Polish economic transformation: A rectification of the misleading of Jeffrey Sachs

In his protracted dispute with Jan Adam over the early benefits of the Polish shock therapy approach to economic reform, a key, and still intact, component of Jeffrey Sachs' case has been a relatively favourable 1991 opinion poll about Poles' perceptions of the benefits of economic reform. This reported that a substantial majority of Poles felt their standard of living had improved as a result of the first two years of economic reform. This was an apparently powerful argument in favour of Poland's particular shock therapy approach to economic reform, as residents of other East European countries, some subject to more gradualist reforms, responded much less positively to the identical question put as part of the same research programme. However, the cited result should be seen as posing a mystery that is at odds with other monthly polls in Poland and seems incompatible with the results of the 1991 Polish Parliamentary elections, which showed a return of support to post-communist parties. A deeper analysis of opinion polls which follows solves the mystery, when it is shown how the cited result was in error and was published in a form diametrically opposite to the true result.     

The economic analysis of offender’s choice: Old and new insights

The economics of crime has followed the basic Becker model (1968), according to which a criminal act results from a rational decision based on cost-benefit analysis. This paper surveys some extensions to Becker’s model, by giving some emphasis to earlier work that tries to explain differences in offender’s choice across places. At the end, the paper analyses the contribution of Steven Levitt (the new Gary Becker), which has stimulated an empirical renaissance in the economic analysis of crime. His new book (co-author Dubner) Freakonomics (2005) offers a new argument in understanding why crime fell in the 1990s in the USA. I am very grateful to an anonymous referee for his valuable comments, which improved the final version of this paper. I would also like to thank Steven Levitt for sending me his unpublished work. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Valuing Air Quality in Poland

In this study we estimate how much Polish citizens would be willing to pay to harmonize Polish air pollution standards with EU standards. We conduct a contingent valuation of all damage components using a system of dichotomous choice questions. This system approach helps to avoid embedding problem and to identify protest voters. We compare estimates from a set of single logit models with a generalized estimating equations (GEE) model, which provides more parsimonious and efficient estimates. Although, health remains very important, our respondents valued mortality less than the literature but morbidity much more. Damages to ecosystems and cultural heritage compose 13–16% of the total value and their omission by the literature seriously underestimates total benefits. Overall, the results suggest that Poland values the benefits of pollution control much less than the wealthier EU suggesting harmonization should be postponed and conditioned on economic prosperity.P28, Q51, Q53 standard harmonization, system valuation     

Can decentralization be beneficial?

A conventional justification for government hierarchy in the fiscal federalism literature is based upon asymmetry in policy tools or in information access that is available to different levels of government. This paper demonstrates that even if these asymmetries are eliminated, addition of local (regional) governments to a one-tier central government can be strictly welfare improving.     

The dynamics of operational loss clustering

This paper investigates the characteristics of the operational loss data formation mechanism that takes place between the date of discovery of a new operational risk event and the final settlement date on which all losses are materialized. The first loss that characterizes the initial impact of a new operational risk event frequently triggers a sequence of related losses. Then, losses generated by the same event are not independent and follow a predictable scheme and the frequency of secondary losses is not homogeneous: both are functions of the initial loss amount and time. We model the arrival intensity and loss severities with a shot-noise stochastic process and derive its key properties. We then discuss implications of our model for the estimation of the regulatory capital charge for operational risk. In an empirical analysis, we find strong evidence of a shot-noise behavior in operational losses using the data of a major US commercial bank.     

Clash of public administration paradigms in delegation of education and elderly care services in a post-socialist state (Poland)*

The aim of this article is to analyse the clash of concurrent perspectives (Public Administration (PA), New Public Management (NPM) and New Public Governance (NPG)) in the area of delegating public services by local governments to non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in education and the elderly care sector in Poland. The article is based on 22 case studies of service delegation throughout Poland, carried out at the University of Warsaw in 2013 as part of an Innovative Project within the framework of the EC Human Capital Programme.     

Emotions,trading practices and communication in transnational itinerant trade: encounters between ‘Rucksack Russians’ and their customers in the late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century Finland

ABSTRACT

This article examines relations between ‘Rucksack Russians’, itinerant traders from Russian Karelia, and their local customers in late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century rural Finland. Finland was a part of the Russian Empire, but, according to Finnish law, itinerant trade was illegal for people without citizenship rights in the Grand Duchy. The trade was, thus, illicit, although often seen through the fingers. We study trader–customer relations through emotions, trading practices and communication, with a special focus on the consumption of women. We argue that analysing the relations from these perspectives deepens the understanding of the functions of itinerant trade for the shaping of a consumer society. For access to a consumer perspective, we use ethnographic questionnaires, a source type that historians have acknowledged only in recent decades. The questionnaires complement and nuance the predominantly negative attitudes towards itinerant trade conveyed in the newspapers, which mainly represent the viewpoints of the authorities and local merchants. Through the theoretical perspectives and through shifting focus from the consumption of the elite to that of that of the lower strata of society, the article offers a fresh take on such aspects of trader–consumer relations that previous historical research on itinerant trade has overlooked.