The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread

The yield spread has commonly been employed as a successful predictor of economic growth and recessions, although its marginal predictive power has decreased since the 1990s. Notably, the yield spread's declining power to predict US economic activity coincided with its growing power to predict US interest rate changes. In my view, these phenomena are inevitably linked and share one cause. The central bank intended to enhance both its transparency and credibility through greater information disclosure; this disclosure improved interest rate predictability but might also have crowded out useful private information formerly in the yield spread that helped predict economic activity.     

Ambient Air Pollution in China: Predicting a Turning Point

One of the most debatable questions among developmental economists and sinologists today is the question that deals with the time it would take China to reduce its current ambient air pollution levels to the levels acceptable by the World Health Organization. Some studies suggest that an increase in the standard of living would improve the environmental situation, a phenomenon that is termed the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). The objective of this study is to estimate the EKC and identify major factors leading to ambient air pollution in China during 2004–2013. We use time-series panel data in 27 provinces to estimate the variability in the levels of ambient air pollution as measured by particulate matter, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide. Some policy implications are drawn.     

Remittances and the Effectiveness of Foreign Aid

We argue that donors could improve the effectiveness of foreign aid by pursuing complementary and coherent non‐aid policies. In particular, we hypothesize that aid has stronger growth effects if recipients receive more aid from donors who allow for (temporary) worker mobility and (more permanent) migration. We focus on overall remittances paid by the donor countries to proxy for worker mobility and migration. Our empirical results support the hypothesis that higher remittances paid by donor countries strengthen the growth effects of foreign aid.     

Making an effort for free – volunteers' roles in destination-based storytelling

Many destinations are dependent on volunteers. Storytelling is one of the areas to which volunteers are increasingly contributing; however, the role of volunteers has been offered only sporadic attention. The aim of this study is to provide insights into volunteer involvement by studying volunteers as destination stakeholders with focus on their roles, influence, and contribution. A cross-case analysis of three Nordic cases is undertaken. A theoretical framework is developed based on volunteer tourism, stakeholder theory, and marketing literature on storytelling. A three-phase model of the storytelling process is developed. Findings show substantial variation. Unsurprisingly, early inclusion of volunteers result in substantial influence on the storytelling concept, however, this does not guarantee volunteer involvement later on. Conversely, late inclusion of volunteers does not necessarily hinder engagement among volunteers in the execution of the stories. All cases demonstrate that developing a strong concept that can tie together the efforts of stakeholders across professional and volunteer divides is a major challenge. The results point at the importance of strategic goals coordinating storytelling activities, volunteer inclusion, and ‘use’ of volunteers' local knowledge and enthusiasm in all phases of the destination-based storytelling process planned along with strategic goals such as ‘selling place’ or ‘building community’.     

R&D investment dynamics in agglomerations under weak appropriability regimes: Evidence from Indian R&D labs

What are the dynamics of R&D investment when firms agglomerate in environments with weak intellectual property rights protection? Specifically, do foreign and domestic firms present equal opportunities for free riding by domestic firms in such environments? We examine the impact on local firms' R&D investment from knowledge spillovers originating from co‐located foreign and domestic firms within and across industries. Building on fieldwork in India, we predict free riding by local firms on nearby foreign and local firms. Furthermore, we expect local firms to free ride more from other local firms within their industry and from foreign firms across industries. Analyzing a sample of 3,475 R&D lab investment decisions during 2003–2010 in India, we find that local firms free ride from other local firms both within and across industries. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Emotions,trading practices and communication in transnational itinerant trade: encounters between ‘Rucksack Russians’ and their customers in the late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century Finland

ABSTRACT

This article examines relations between ‘Rucksack Russians’, itinerant traders from Russian Karelia, and their local customers in late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century rural Finland. Finland was a part of the Russian Empire, but, according to Finnish law, itinerant trade was illegal for people without citizenship rights in the Grand Duchy. The trade was, thus, illicit, although often seen through the fingers. We study trader–customer relations through emotions, trading practices and communication, with a special focus on the consumption of women. We argue that analysing the relations from these perspectives deepens the understanding of the functions of itinerant trade for the shaping of a consumer society. For access to a consumer perspective, we use ethnographic questionnaires, a source type that historians have acknowledged only in recent decades. The questionnaires complement and nuance the predominantly negative attitudes towards itinerant trade conveyed in the newspapers, which mainly represent the viewpoints of the authorities and local merchants. Through the theoretical perspectives and through shifting focus from the consumption of the elite to that of that of the lower strata of society, the article offers a fresh take on such aspects of trader–consumer relations that previous historical research on itinerant trade has overlooked.     

污染产业转移成因及政府规制探讨

产业转移是地区分工和国际分工的客观要求,但由于环境外部性内在化程度在地区间存在差异以及地方政府追求特定目标动机的存在,使得污染问题伴随产业转移而影响了转入地的生态环境.结合江苏省内产业转移现状,探讨污染产业转移的成因,认为现有政府规制方式失灵,提出了解决污染转移的新方式.     

Materialism and life satisfaction: The moderating roles of alexithymia and product retention tendency

This research examines how alexithymia and product retention tendency affect the relationship between materialism and life satisfaction. Extant research has established that materialism has a negative effect on personal well‐being and that consumer culture and marketing facilitates this effect by encouraging consumers to focus on material pursuits to satisfy extrinsic goals. However, previous research has not explored how emotional personality traits and lifestyle values influence this “dark side” of materialism. Alexithymia is an emotional personality trait that inhibits an individual's ability to identify, describe and regulate emotions. Results from survey data show that alexithymia moderates the effect of materialism on life satisfaction, such that the effect is negative for individuals without alexithymia, but positive for individuals with alexithymia. Moreover, product retention tendency attenuates the negative effect of materialism for individuals without alexithymia, but strengthens the positive effect of materialism for individuals with alexithymia. The theoretical implications of these findings are discussed.     

Sorting the good guys from bad: on the optimal audit structure with ex-ante information acquisition

In a costly state verification model under commitment, the principal may acquire a costly public and imperfectly revealing signal before or after contracting. If the project remains profitable after all signal realizations, optimally the signal is collected, if at all, only after contracting, and it may be acquired randomly or deterministically. Moreover, audit is deterministic and targeted on some signal-state combinations. The paper provides a detailed characterization of the optimal contract and performs a comparative static analysis of signal acquisition strategy and payoffs with respect to enforcement costs and informativeness of the signal. We explore the robustness of the results, including commitment issues. The results are interpreted in light of the observed features of financial contracts, showing that the optimality of the standard debt contract with deterministic audit extends to a setting with random audit.