Are stock price dynamics affected by financial analysts recommendations? Evidence from Italian green energy stocks

Quality & Quantity - In this paper we analyze whether financial analysts recommendations on trading strategies related to a given stock can influence its price dynamics. The recommendation for...     

Earnouts: The real value of disagreement in mergers and acquisitions

Earnout agreements link part of the payment for an acquired company to its future performance. Despite their option-like features, they cannot be valued using vanilla option-pricing methods. Two peculiar sources of risk affect these contracts: Bidder default before the earnout expiration (default risk) and potential litigation associated with earnouts (litigation risk). We developed an option-pricing model that encompasses these sources of risk, showing that counterparty and litigation risk can have a remarkable impact on earnout values. Our model's relevance is further enhanced by recent accounting standards that require contingent payments to be valued at fair value.     

Reconfiguring supplier relationships between local and global: History matters

Small and medium-sized companies are increasingly facing international markets as part of their processes of growth and development. A great deal of literature deals with different patterns of growth and international development that are specific to SMEs with respect to large companies. Fewer studies have been conducted on the reconfiguration of company supplier relationships involved in these processes. This paper focuses on the role played by the consolidated set of company supplier relationships when the firm faces some critical stages in its process of development, i.e., growth from small to mid-sized and the implementation of new ventures abroad accessing new business relationships with international suppliers. A multiple and longitudinal case study shows how the local set of supplier relationships of four mid-sized Italian mechanical companies acting in industrial districts has played an important role in shaping the emerging set of supplier relationships and addressing companies' actions in their growth and internationalization processes.     

From fixed to state‐dependent duration in public‐private partnerships

A government delegates a build‐operate‐transfer project to a private firm. In the contracting stage, the operating cost is unknown. The firm can increase the likelihood of facing a low cost, rather than a high cost, by exerting costly effort when building the infrastructure. Once the infrastructure is in place, the firm learns the true cost and begins to operate. Under limited commitment, either partner may renege on the contract at any moment thereafter. The novelty with respect to incentive theory is that the contractual length is stipulated in the contract in such a way that it depends on the cost realization. Our main result is that, if the break‐up of the partnership is sufficiently costly to the government and/or adverse selection and moral hazard are sufficiently severe, then the efficient contract is not robust to renegotiation unless it has a longer duration when the realized cost is low. This result is at odds with the literature on flexible‐term contracts, which recommends a longer duration when operating conditions are unfavorable, yet, with regard to a different setting, where the demand is uncertain and the cash‐flow is exogenous.     

Mandatory Audit Firm Rotation and Audit Quality

In a setting where mandatory audit firm rotation has been effective for more than 20 years (i.e. Italy), we analyse changes in audit quality during the auditor engagement period. In our research setting, auditors are appointed for a three-year period and their term can be renewed twice up to a maximum of nine years. Since the auditor has incentives to be re-appointed at the end of the first and the second three-year periods, we expect audit quality to be lower in the first two three-year periods compared to the third (i.e. the last) term. Assuming that a better audit quality is associated with a higher level of accounting conservatism, and using abnormal working capital accruals as a proxy for the latter, we find that the auditor becomes more conservative in the last three-year period, i.e. the one preceding the mandatory rotation. These results are confirmed using Basu's [1997. The conservatism principle and the asymmetric timeliness of earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 24(1), 3–37] timely loss recognition model. In an additional analysis, we use earnings response coefficients as a proxy for investor perception of audit quality, and we observe results consistent with an increase in audit quality perception in the last engagement period.     

Growth,unemployment and heterogeneity

The paper analyzes unemployment in a medium-run growth model, where aggregate demand and supply interact, using a top-down approach. The aim of the essay is the study of a nonlinear system where both aggregate demand and supply are endogenous and generate bounded unemployment, followed by a methodological effort direct to identify possible lines of convergence with the agent based models (ABM) approach. This is a by-product of the presence of heterogeneity in the model. Heterogeneity acts through two different channels and operates among class of agents: it comes into the aggregate consumption function where households are assumed employed or unemployed; it changes the learning process of pessimists and optimists. The analysis is carried on through simulations. The resulting system is fairly stable to changes in main structural parameters. On one hand, autonomous demand drives the dynamics of the system, while heterogeneity in the consumption function, due to the presence of unemployment, strengthens the links with supply aspects. On the other hand, both the rate of growth of labor productivity and labor supply are endogenous. Two major results are obtained. First, unemployment allows the so called Harrodian reconciliation between aggregate demand and supply. Second, unemployment remains bounded meaning that the interaction between aggregate demand and supply thwarts instability. These results are in keeping with those obtained by means of a bottom-up approach, typical of ABM. Possible explanations and implications of this convergence are put forward and open the venue to further deepening of complementarities among the two modeling strategies.