Semivariance of Property Value Estimates as a Determinant of Default Risk

Standard practice in the residential mortgage underwriting industry is to estimate collateral values via independent appraisals conducted by third parties. This paper empirically examines the role of property value ( i.e. , appraisal) uncertainty as a determinant of default on residential mortgage loans. Based upon an analysis of 1,428 residential loans drawn from the portfolio of a national mortgage lender, we find evidence that semivariance in property value uncertainty is related to default risk. Specifically, subject properties that are valued above the sales price of recently sold "similar and proximate" properties show evidence of greater default risk. Interestingly, a variance (range) measure of property value uncertainty is not significantly related to default risk.     

Human Capital and Systems of Innovation in African Development

Abstract: In this paper we propose that historically generated institutions and persistent pattern of human capital formation condition the emergent systems of innovation in Africa. These factors determine the development path of the region. We advance the notion of dynamic and non‐dynamic systems of innovation, the latter describing the African condition. We combine the strands of literature on institutions and their persistence in shaping development with evolutionary theory and systems of innovation. Evidence is presented on the colonial origins of skewed schooling enrolment, at variance with the industrialization objective of modern economies. Employing simple statistical tests, the persistence of initial human capital (school enrolment) reflects in the significant correlation among the three levels of schooling enrolments, and correlation of enrolment in 1970 with per capita income in 2000, a periodicity of some three decades. This outcome is consistent with the literature on countries at early stages of development. Path‐dependency is partially proved even though we did not attempt to investigate all variables making up the system of innovation. This is a first tentative attempt to explore long‐run development in Africa within the systems of innovation framework.     

Making the ‘rules of the game’: Constituting territory and authority in Nicaragua's indigenous communities

Indigenous communities, particularly in Latin America, are increasingly winning recognition of rights to lands and forests that they have managed or used historically under customary institutions. If property refers to ‘the rules of the game’, this article uses the constitution of indigenous communal territories in Nicaragua to examine the process of ‘making the rules’. Specifically, the recognition of rights by central governments leads to political contestations over both territory and authority as communities and indigenous political leaders vie for different configurations of both lands and new territorial authorities. That is, the process of constituting large collective territories is intimately related to the constitution of authority, as it involves not only the negotiation of physical boundaries but also the recognition of an existing authority structure – or the creation of a new entity – to represent the beneficiaries. In Nicaragua's North Atlantic Autonomous Region, then, the decision over ‘which configuration of territory’ is ultimately a political negotiation over which ‘authority’ will have the right to control and enforce access to which rights and benefits from land and natural resources.     

Brexit: How Will UK Agriculture Fare?

There is little doubt that Brexit would have significant implications for UK agriculture, a sector with strong trade links to the EU and strong reliance on CAP income support. This article reports preliminary results from employing a Computable General Equilibrium Model, a Partial Equilibrium Model and Farm Level Models to explore selected trade and domestic policy scenarios post‐Brexit. These allow for the estimation of changes in producer prices, production and farm incomes against a baseline scenario of continued EU membership. Under a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, agricultural impacts are relatively modest. By contrast, unilateral removal of import tariffs has significant negative impacts on prices, production and incomes. Adoption of the EU's WTO tariff schedule for all imports favours net importers (e.g. dairy) and harms net exporters (e.g. sheep). Given the strong dependence of most UK farms on direct payments, their removal worsens negative impacts of new trade arrangements and offsets positive impacts. Impacts vary across different types and sizes of farm, but also regionally. However, the period of adjustment to new trade and domestic policy conditions may prove very challenging for a large number of farm businesses.     

Build it and they will come: Volunteer opportunities and volunteering

Formal volunteering refers to an individual's unpaid contribution of time to the activities of a charitable or non-profit organization. While the physical presence of these organizations is usually required for citizens who want to volunteer, neighbourhoods vary with respect to the amount of volunteering opportunities available. We are the first to geo-code information on the location of registered charities and the location of individuals, using full six-digit postal codes, to examine how the physical proximity of charities affects the decision to volunteer. We carefully address the possibility that proximity to charities might be endogenous: organizations and volunteers may respond to similar unobservable factors when deciding where to locate. Our results imply that access does matter for the decision to volunteer: one more charity within a 1 km buffer around an individual's residence increases the predicted probability of volunteering by 0.8%. The impact of an additional charity on the likelihood of volunteering decreases with distance from the individual's residence and is more pronounced for urban dwellers, providing further evidence that the location of charities matters when it comes to nudging individuals to volunteer.     

The impact of patent protection on US pharmaceutical exports to developing countries

This article provides evidence that patent protection can have a positive effect on trade, by analysing the impact of the implementation of intellectual property rights (IPR) in developing countries on the US exports of pharmaceutical products, following intense lobbying efforts from the US pharmaceutical industry to have the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) agreement included in the creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO). A gravity model using panel data from 1995 to 2010 suggests that the implementation of minimum standards of patent protection has increased US exports of pharmaceuticals to 108 nonadvanced countries.     

Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap

The output gap is a crucial concept in the monetary policy framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. However, its definition and estimation raise a number of theoretical and empirical questions. This paper evaluates a series of univariate and multivariate methods for extracting the output gap in Norway, and compares their value added in predicting inflation. We find that models including the output gap have better predictive power than models based on alternative indicators, and they forecast significantly better than simple benchmark models. Furthermore multivariate measures of the output gap perform better than the univariate gaps. Comments from two anonymous referees, Q. Farooq Akram, Tommy Sveen, Ken West, Fredrik Wulfsberg and seminar participants in Norges Bank are gratefully acknowledged. All mistakes remain our own. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of Norges Bank.     

Product Market Reform and Innovation in the EU*

European Union countries have implemented widespread reforms to product markets to stimulate competition, innovation, and economic growth. We provide empirical evidence that the reforms carried out under the EU Single Market Programme (SMP) were associated with increased product market competition, as measured by a reduction in average profitability, and with a subsequent increase in innovation intensity and productivity growth for manufacturing sectors. Our analysis exploits exogenous variation in the expected impact of the SMP across countries and industries to identify the effects of reforms on average profitability, and the effects of profitability on innovation and productivity growth.     

“My Fifty Shoes Are All Different!” Exploring,Defining, and Characterizing Acquisitive Buying

Why does someone buy the tenth pair of black shoes or the fourteenth white t‐shirt? Typically, extreme buying is associated with negative feelings and consequences: issues of self‐control, guilt, and financial problems are common among compulsive, impulsive, excessive buying, fixated buying, and hoarding. However, through two studies, the authors describe “acquisitive buyers,” who exhibit an extreme yet controlled acquisition process for items in a chosen product category. In his/her mind, these items are minutely differentiated and enrich the inventory, and there is logical justification that every purchase enhances his/her preparedness for anticipated specific product use occasions. Materialism, positive perfectionism and variety‐seeking in a particular product category are some of the characteristics of these buyers. The studies also help distinguish acquisitive buying from other types of extreme buying and mainstream buying.