Poverty Reduction through Growth and Redistribution Policies—a Panel Analysis for 59 Developing Countries

In this paper, we empirically test the determinants of growth, as derived from a semi‐endogenous growth model, in terms of its poverty‐reducing effects. We base our empirical analysis of the growth and distribution effect of economic policies on a panel data set of 59 developing countries, divided into two subgroups, and a sample period ranging from 1960 to 2004. For purposes of estimation we make use of the generalized methods of moments (GMM) system estimator. The estimations reveal a poverty‐reducing effect of investment. In contrast population growth induces higher poverty. The import of knowledge is growth enhancing only for countries at a higher stage of development—meanwhile the positive growth effect of an increasing democratization is limited to the poor developing countries.     

Contagion,herding and exchange-rate instability — A survey

Despite the considerable body of literature on the subject of currency crises there is still very little agreement on the true drivers of these, crises and their transmission across countries. This article focuses in particular on the role of herd behaviour and financial contagion, and the high exchange-rate. volatility which is a direct consequence of these. It also looks at the adverse macroeconomic consequences of episodes with high exchange-rate volatility, especially in terms of labour market performance.     

Real Convergence,Capital Flows,and Competitiveness in Central and Eastern Europe

The paper scrutinizes the role of capital flows for competitiveness in the new EU member states in the context of real convergence. For this purpose it extends the seminal Balassa–Samuelson model by international capital markets to trace cyclical deviations of real exchange rates from the productivity‐driven equilibrium path. Panel estimations for the period from 1998 to 2009 reveal strong evidence for the Balassa–Samuelson effect and mixed results for the role of capital flows for international competitiveness of the Central and Eastern European countries.     

A Simple Model of Hysteresis in Employment under Exchange Rate Uncertainty

A model leading to employment hysteresis due to sunk hiring- and firing-costs is proposed. A potential mechanism based on a band of inaction that could account for a 'weaker' relationship between employment and its determinants is augmented by exchange rate uncertainty. As a result of option value effects the band of inaction is widened. Thus, the hysteresis effects are strongly amplified by exchange rate uncertainty (as numerical examples demonstrate). Non-linearities in the employment-relation are implied, i.e. 'spurts' in new employment or firing may occur after an initially weak response to a reversal of the exchange rate.     

Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of asset price adjustment: A global view

Global liquidity expansion has been very dynamic since 2001. Contrary to conventional wisdom, high money growth rates have not coincided with a concurrent rise in goods prices. At the same time, however, asset prices have increased sharply, significantly outpacing the subdued development in consumer prices. We investigate the interactions between money and goods and asset prices at the global level. Using aggregated data for major OECD countries, our VAR results support the view that different price elasticities on asset and goods markets explain the observed relative price change between asset classes and consumer goods.     

Richtungswechsel in den USA — Folgen der neuen Präsidentschaft für die Wirtschaft

Under US President Donald Trump, it can be expected that large tax cuts will be passed and public expenditure will be slightly limited. He correctly identified US deindustrialisation as one of the economy’s core problems. His proposed policy platforms, however, are unpredictable and most likely harmful for the US and world economy. Even more importantly, the new government repeatedly clashes with national and multilateral institutions and thereby challenges the heart of democratically based capitalism. At present, it is still open if Donald Trump’s Executive Orders on trade measures will be backed by the US Congress. In any case, the new US administration is obviously abandoning the general principle of free trade. But the announced changes in US trade and exchange rate policies are less of a fundamental break than is often argued, because cooperation in international economic policy has always been limited and unstable. Beyond trade policy, it seems to be the intention of the new US government to fundamentally change the course of the country with regard to the financial markets. With regard to its monetary policy, the administration’s current position is marked by its inherent inconsistency. However, the new government has several channels through which to influence and fundamentally change the working of the Fed in order to make it more obedient to its goals.     

Corporate Communications from the Top and from the Center: Comparing Experiences and Expectations of CEOs and Communicators

Common viewpoints as well as divergences between top executives and communication professionals influence the institutionalization of strategic communication. However, there is little empirical evidence on the accordance between both groups. Most research explores either communication professionals or chief communication officers (CEOs). Very few studies have combined both perspectives. This article identifies the research gap, explores insights from previous research, and contributes to the body of knowledge in strategic communication with an original study that is based on two surveys with replies from 602 CEOs and executive board members as well as 1,251 communication managers from companies in the largest European country, Germany. Although top executives rate the information and motivation of employees as the most important objective of corporate communication, communication professionals focus on the creation of a positive image. Respondents from both groups also state different opinions about dealing with the demand for transparency. Both top executives and communicators give most support to a role model that describes communication professionals as a facilitator between an organization and its publics. Nevertheless the overall conclusion is that perspectives diverge quite often and attention should be directed towards a better alignment between top management and those leading the strategic communication function.     

Estimating the costs and benefits of EMU: The impact of external shocks on labour markets

Estimating the Costs and Benefits of EMU: The Impact of External Shocks on Labour Markets. — Discussions of costs and benefits of EMU usually rely on the optimum currency area approach: when external shocks hit the economy, it is easier to adjust the exchange rate than domestic prices or wages. We find that external shocks have little impact on unemployment, but are more important to manufacturing employment. Taking into account potential shock absorbers (exchange rates, fiscal and monetary policy) leaves results unchanged. By contrast, internal shocks, strongly influence (un)employment. The loss of the exchange rate instrument will not lead to massive unemployment after external shocks.     

Exchange Rate Variability and Labor Market Performance in the Visegrád Countries

According to the traditional optimum currency area approach, not much will be lost from a very hard peg to a currency union if there has been little reason for variations in the exchange rate. This paper takes a different approach and highlights the fact that high exchange rate volatility may as well signal high costs for labor markets. Based on the paper by Belke (2003), the impact of exchange rate volatility on labor markets in the four Visegrád Economies (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and the Slovak Republic) is analyzed, finding that volatility vis-à-vis the euro significantly increases unemployment. Hence, the elimination of exchange rate volatility could be considered as a substitute for a removal of employment protection legislation.