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排序方式: 共有117条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
21.
In this paper a non-linear model is applied, where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a zone of inaction, which we call “play” area—analogous to mechanical play. We implement an algorithm describing path-dependent play-hysteresis into a regression framework. The hysteretic impact of real exchange rates on Greek exports is estimated based on the period from 1995Q1 to 2014Q4. Looking at some of the main export partners of Greece, the euro area, Turkey and the US, and some of its most important tradeable sectors we identify significant hysteretic effects for a part of the Greek exports. We find that Greek export activity is characterized by “bands of inaction” with respect to changes in the real exchange rate and calculate the further real depreciation needed to trigger a spurt in Greek exports. To check for robustness we (a) estimate Greek export equations for a limited sample excluding the recent financial crisis, (b) use export weight instead of deflated nominal exports as the dependent variable, (c) employ a political uncertainty variable as a determinant of the width of the area of weak reaction. Overall, we find that those specifications which take uncertainty into account display the best goodness of fit. In other words: the option value of waiting dominates the real exchange rate effect on Greek exports. 相似文献
22.
Ansgar Belke 《Intereconomics》2004,39(6):288-292
Conclusions Seen on the whole, one of the biggest economic challenges for Turkey is to make its recent macroeconomic stabilisation sustainable.
Of utmost importance in this respect is a significant catch-up in quality of institutions and governance to the EU level.
Although starting with a small GDP, Turkey could significantly contribute to high growth rates of the EU as a whole (as already
aimed at by the Lisbon agenda). The analysis of Turkey's human resources has identified a large gap in human captial formation
and its centra role for backlogs in convergence between Turkey and the EU. Hence, one important policy conclusion would be
to link up pre-accession financial support with the accumulation of human capital instead of the usual support for standard
infrastructure projects. Another example would be in the area of trade integration. For instance, enhancing the currently
existing customs union with Turkey in the direction of free trade in services would generate benefits to Turkey and to the
EU which should not be underestimated. Finally, one could imagine the implementation of joint and specific transition policies
in the areas of energy, agriculture and education.
If Turkey is able to stick strictly to its reform-oriented path of modernisation, nothing can prevent us from expecting enormous
benefits from the integration of two regions with significantly different factor endowments — a straightforward economic insight
not often well understood by politicians or the public. 相似文献
23.
(1227) Ansgar Belke and Yuhua Cui This paper analyses the monetary policy interdependence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) for the period 1999–2006. Two models are specified: a partial vector error correction model (VECM) and a general VECM. In the partial VECM, we look for a long‐run interdependent relationship between the interest rates of the two currency areas and specify the Taylor Rule terms as exogenous variables. In the general VECM, we regard all variables as endogenous, and look for long‐run equilibrium relationships among them, which may reveal monetary policy interdependence between the two central banks. Weak exogeneity is checked in both models in order to establish a possible leader–follower relationship. The empirical results of both models indicate interdependence between the ECB and the Fed, but only the general VECM testifies a leader–follower pattern between the two central banks. According to this pattern, the ECB does follow the Fed. 相似文献
24.
A recent report by the European Parliament looks into questions relating to the likelihood of asymmetric shocks under EMU,
the system's ability to absorb them and the need for new instruments and mechanisms. Our authors evaluate the report and qualify
it on some important accounts, adding a proposal of their own on how to cope with unanticipated and asymmetric regional shocks
in the euro area.
The article is an extended version of the comment by the first author on the Explanatory Statement “Asymmetric Shock or Shock
Specific to One Country”, Public Expert Hearing, Subcommittee on Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, Brussels, 2nd September 1998. 相似文献
25.
26.
Kai A. Konrad Max Otte Ansgar Belke Carsten Hefeker Jörnn Axel Kämmerer Hanno Beck Dirk Wentzel 《Wirtschaftsdienst》2010,90(3):143-171
Die Krise Griechenlands w?chst sich zu einer Gefahr für den gesamten Euroraum aus. Wie soll die Europ?ische Union darauf reagieren?
Sie befindet sich im Dilemma zwischen Bailout und Bestrafung des „Defizitsünders“. Das erste scheint für den Bestand der W?hrungsunion
unvermeidlich, das zweite ist erforderlich, um einen Moral Hazard zu vermeiden. 相似文献
27.
This paper examines the degree of correlation, i.e. the synchronicity, among EU regional employment cycles and attempts to link it to changing patterns of specialisation. This topic deserves attention since the existing evidence seems to suggest a rather limited role for a region’s industry structure in explaining its employment growth. A dynamic panel data model is estimated for pairs of regions by within groups, i.e., by a standard fixed effects estimator. The results indicate that synchronicity between regions has declined and differences in regional industry structure can be held account for this.
相似文献
Jens M. HeineEmail: |
28.
29.
Herwig Friedl Radoslava Mirkov Ansgar Steinkamp 《Revue internationale de statistique》2012,80(1):24-39
The flow of natural gas within a gas transmission network is studied with the aim to optimize such networks. The analysis of real data provides a deeper insight into the behaviour of gas in‐ and outflow. Several models for describing dependence between the maximal daily gas flow and the temperature on network exits are proposed. A modified sigmoidal regression is chosen from the class of parametric models. As an alternative, a semi‐parametric regression model based on penalized splines is considered. The comparison of models and the forecast of gas loads for very low temperatures based on both approaches is included. The application of the obtained results is discussed. 相似文献
30.
This paper identifies and measures fiscal spillovers in the EU countries empirically using a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model. Our aim was to look at the sign and the absolute values of fiscal spillovers in a countrywise perspective and at the time profile (impulse response) of the impacts of fiscal shocks. We find moderate spillover effects of fiscal policy shocks originating in Germany and France. However, there is significant variation regarding the magnitude of the spillovers on individual destination countries and country clusters. Furthermore, we find some evidence that German or French fiscal spillovers are stronger on EMU than on non‐EMU countries. 相似文献