Information from successive changes in gold and silver prices during phases of the business cycles

This paper concerns the behavior of gold and silver prices on a daily, weekly and monthly time span during January 1970 to December 1989. The methodology consists of extracting the predictive power of time series of changes in past prices for obtaining optimal forecasts for next-period changes in prices. Optimizations are made in the context of information theory via minimizing the degree of diversity between the actual and predicted changes in prices. This methodology has merit in that it does not rest on, generally speaking, unacceptable assumptions regarding the shape of the distribution, stationarity of variance or its existence. The behavior of gold and silver prices are studied during peak to trough and trough to peak of the business cycles over 1970–1989. It is generally shown that information contained in past prices of gold and silver does not allow one to predict next-period changes in prices in the short run. However, longer-term predictions are possible. This study further reveals that as the length of the time interval expands, gold prices exhibit a higher degree of dependency on past prices than silver.     

Limiting Auditors' Liability: The Potential Consequences

The recent revival of interest in the issue of limiting auditors' liability raises questions about the potential effect of such a limitation on auditors' performance. This paper considers the consequences of limited liability from the perspectives of contracting theory and economic arguments. We examine the potential effect of a reduction in auditors' liability on the standard of care or quality of service they provide, emphasising the "calculus of negligence" concept used by Australian courts. We consider the potential impact of reduced liability on the auditor's decision to shirk responsibilities (the moral hazard problem) and on the value placed on audit services. The analysis shows that placing a statutory cap on auditors' liability has the potential to reduce the effectiveness of bonding mechanisms; provide an avenue for divergent behaviour; lower the level of care provided by auditors; and decrease the value of audit services.     

Regional innovation and small high technology firms in peripheral regions

This paper highlights the difficulty of developing HT firms in a peripheral region of Spain. Although the endogenous development of HT firms in these regions is possible, their evolution depends on more central regions. The firm's geographical location and the type of HT production are the most important endogenous factors governing the firm's success.     

Control of lipid oxidation in cooked ground beef with water and salts*

The effects of exogenous water and salts on lipid oxidation in ground beef were determined. Deionized water, salts, or both, were added to treatment samples. Salts used were sodium chloride, potassium chloride and sodium sulphate, all at 3% concentration. The Thiobarbituric acid (TBA) test was used to assess lipid oxidation. Addition of water at a 10% or 20% level had no effect on rancidity. Sodium chloride and potassium chloride reduced TBA numbers. Adding water to those samples containing potassium chloride and sodium sulphate raised moisture content.     

The evaluation stage in marketing decision making

Prior to making important decisions, marketing managers go through an evaluation process in which available alternatives are compared. Yet, no systematic discussion of the evaluation process exists in the marketing literature. This article reviews the marketing and behavioral decision theory literature in order to identify factors that may cause errors in the two fundamental elements of the evaluation process—the estimation of probabilities and the determination of the value of outcomes. Propositions are developed that specify circumstances in which marketing management decisions may be influenced by judgmental biases, and procedures are identified for debiasing such judgments.     

Uniform Commercial Policy, Illegal Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate: A Theoretical Analysis

Countries on fixed exchange rates sometimes use uniform tariffcum subsidy (UTCS) schemes as a way of achieving a real depreciationwithout disturbing the nominal exchange rate. A potential drawbackof this policy in relation to an across-the-board devaluationis that a UTCS scheme provides incentives for illegal trade.Using an optimizing model with currency convertibility and illegaltrade. I find that welfare is lower under a UTCS scheme thanunder a corresponding across-the-board devaluation and thatin some cases the real exchange rate actually appreciates inresponse to an increase in the UTCS rate.