Ex ante assessment of the returns to livestock disease control in Indonesia

Agriculture's importance in the process of economic growth highlights the role of sustained advances in farm production practices by improving the quantity and quality of farm products. In this context, investment in improved agricultural technology continues to be an important avenue of assistance to the developing countries. However, the increased resource pressures facing both aid donors and recipients have emphasised the need for the prior assessment of the potential benefits of aid projects to assist effective aid planning and management. Here, the main requirements are to establish viable project goals for translation into effective programmes, to predict the likely project impacts, and to evaluate the potential benefits and costs of adopting the project's outcomes. An ex ante assessment of assistance in controlling a major livestock disease in Indonesia's eastern islands is described in this paper. The annual net benefits from controlling this disease ranged between $A0.45 and $A2.5 million according to the mortality rate reduction achieved. The benefits were shared between beef producers and consumers according to the market elasticity conditions assumed.     

Ecosystems,externalities, and economies

This paper incorporates an ecosystem model into a model of a simple economy. The decisionmaking agents in the ecosystem are individual organisms aggregated to the species level. A species may provide utility directly to humans, or it may provide utility indirectly because it is used either as a raw material in goods fabrication or as sustenance for other species. We describe a comparative static equilibrium of the ecosystem where species' demands for other species are equal to the supplies of those other species, and energy is conserved. The ecosystem is then embedded in the economy so that the effects of human intervention can be traced through both the ecosystem and the economy. Human intervention creates ecosystem externalities such that ecosystem equilibria are shifted and the new equilibria affect the utility or the production processes of other humans. This framework allows us to describe in principle which ecosystem services can be efficiently usurped by humans, which waste flows can be efficiently allowed into ecosystems, and which ecosystem organisms and physical attributes can be efficiently maintained.     

The Mode of Acquisition in Takeovers: Taxes and Asymmetric Information

We develop a model in which the mode of acquisition conveys information concerning the value of the bidder. The model incorporates the possibility that offers containing both cash and stock can be made in a setting consistent with the U.S. tax code. We demonstrate that bidders with unfavorable private information about their equity value choose offers containing some stock to avoid the capital gains tax consequences of cash offers. The model yields a number of unique predictions about the construction of acquisition offers. We present evidence consistent with the model.     

THE LAST MILE: AN EXAMINATION OF EFFECTS OF ONLINE RETAIL DELIVERY STRATEGIES ON CONSUMERS

The Internet has increased the level of importance of the end‐consumer market to transportation carriers. In two between subject experiments, carrier disclosure on retail merchant websites is examined as a strategic differentiation strategy. Predictions are offered concerning effects of carrier disclosure strategies on product delivery‐related expectations, consumer attitudes, and intentions to purchase a product online. Results from Study 1 reveal significant differences between disclosure and nondisclosure of the carrier for numerous product delivery‐related variables, as well as many differences between the six carriers examined in this first study. Study 2 extends these findings by showing that providing consumers with a choice of carrier leads to increased levels of satisfaction with the online experience and greater willingness to buy, relative to nondisclosure and disclosure strategies.     

A STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODEL OF SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES AND FIRM PERFORMANCE

This research develops and analyzes a theoretical framework for supplier management and customer relationship strategies, supply chain management strategy, and firm performance using structural equation modeling. Data used in the paper were collected from a comprehensive survey circulated to a wide variety of U.S. and European business executives. Based on the findings, a clearer picture of the practice and benefits of SCM and its strategic implications emerges.     

Conditioning as disintegration

Conditional probability distributions seem to have a bad reputation when it comes to rigorous treatment of conditioning. Technical arguments are published as manipulations of Radon–Nikodym derivatives, although we all secretly perform heuristic calculations using elementary definitions of conditional probabilities. In print, measurability and averaging properties substitute for intuitive ideas about random variables behaving like constants given particular conditioning information.
One way to engage in rigorous, guilt-free manipulation of conditional distributions is to treat them as disintegrating measures—families of probability measures concentrating on the level sets of a conditioning statistic. In this paper we present a little theory and a range of examples—from EM algorithms and the Neyman factorization, through Bayes theory and marginalization paradoxes—to suggest that disintegrations have both intuitive appeal and the rigor needed for many problems in mathematical statistics.     

Price rigidities and institutional variations in markets with posted prices

Summary Standard laboratory posted-offer markets respond slowly and incompletely to demand shocks. In these one-sided markets, where sellers control the setting of prices, very little information is transmitted via the process of exchange. For this reason, traders have trouble distinguishing randomness in their own experience from changes in market fundamentals. This paper reports the results of twelve laboratory markets conducted to assess whether some common variants to standard posted-offer rules can correct the adjustment deficiences. Although discounting, multiple postings and excess demand information all improve performance, we find that response remains poor, and efficiencies low.Support for this research was provided by the National Science Foundation (SBR 9319842 and SBR 9320044), and the University of Virginia Bankard Fund. Data are archived at FTP address: fido.econlab.arizona.edu. We wish to thank Charles Plott and Shyam Sunder for useful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. The usual disclaimer applies.     

The Impact of Option Introduction on Stock Return Variances: The Role of Bid-Ask Spreads, Return Autocorrelations, and Intrinsic Variances

The purpose of this paper is to examine changes in stock return variances following option introduction. The sample consists of National Market System stocks and employs both transaction returns and returns based on bid and ask quotes. Variances are decomposed into portions attributable to bid-ask spreads, return autocorrelations, and intrinsic variances. Spreads play a negligible role in explaining variance changes. A generally positive component to short-term autocorrelations falls following option introduction, increasing variances over short holding periods. Intrinsic variances fall prior to the October 1987 crash, but do not change after the crash with option introduction.     

Migration as a Strategy of Accumulation: Social and Economic Change in Eighteenth-Century Savoy

Migration from the mountain areas of pre-industrial Europe has been seen as the product of poverty. While hardship controlled the strategies of the more marginalized households, better placed families used their migration experience to establish themselves in commerce. Over generations they used contacts and kinship systems to develop important informal trading networks. It is difficult to establish the effects of this hidden activity on local mountain economies, but dowry payments and post mortem inventories are used to expose the impact of inflowing capital and its circulation.