Convergence rates of density estimators for sums of powers of observations

Densities of functions of independent and identically distributed random observations can be estimated by a local U-statistic. It has been shown recently that, under an appropriate integrability condition, this estimator behaves asymptotically like an empirical estimator. In particular, it converges at the parametric rate. The integrability condition is rather restrictive. It fails for the sum of powers of two observations when the exponent is at least two. We have shown elsewhere that for exponent equal to two the rate of convergence slows down by a logarithmic factor on the support of the squared observation and is still parametric outside this support. For exponent greater than two, and on the support of the exponentiated observation, the estimator behaves like a classical density estimator: The bias is not negligible and the rate depends on the bandwidth. Outside the support, the rate is again parametric.     

50 Jahre Kritik an der deutschen Zahlungsbilanz

For nearly 50 years Germany has been criticised for the surplus on its balance of payments, especially on the current account. In 1965 and 1976, Charles P. Kindleberger analysed this phenomenon and predicted its persistence. The causes he presented were structural (the structure of German exports, a special “propensity to export”, the docility of German labour, German innovation and technical progress) and macroeconomic (inflation abroad, the German propensities to save or not to absorb); institutional factors were responsible for an inadequate long-term capital export so that the export surplus led to an accumulation of foreign liquid assets. It is shown that these forces, with some modifications, are still prevalent. Instead of alleviating these problems, the European Economic and Monetary Union reinforced the tendency towards disequilibrium.     

Can the HM-test be brought to an end?

A significant change seen in the new regulatory framework for communications markets regards issues of market delineation. Relevant markets according to the new regulatory framework should be defined in accordance with competition law methodology/principles, most notably the so-called Hypothetical Monopolist Test (HM-test). Our discussion points to the conceptual and practical difficulties associated with evaluating the effects of a 5–10% price increase on the costs and therefore on the profitability of a hypothetical monopolist. Applying our analysis to fixed retail voice telephony markets we show that, in the presence of scale economies, final results crucially depend on assumptions about the cost function, in particular the relation of variable to fixed costs and the resulting (competitive) margin. The latter, in turn, will depend on the time horizon that is deemed to be relevant for market delineation purposes. Overall quantitative techniques applied to carry out the HM-test rigorously on empirical grounds are highly sensible to those assumptions a priori even if one assumes that (empirical) estimates of elasticities can be derived reasonably.*The views expressed are those of the authors and do not represent those of RTR or TKK.     

How does perceived firm innovativeness affect the consumer?

We present a broad-based, consumer-centric view of innovation—referred to as “perceived firm innovativeness” (PFI). PFI is conceptualized as the consumer's perception of an enduring firm capability that results in novel, creative, and impactful ideas and solutions. We develop and validate a PFI scale and show that PFI impacts consumer loyalty via two processing routes: a functional-cognitive route and an affective-experiential route. Our results indicate that a firm needs to consider consumer perceptions of the firm as a whole, and not just new products and technologies, and take into account a functional-cognitive perspective as well as consumer emotions and experiences.     

Fiscal Multiplier in Microstates: Evidence from the Caribbean

The global financial crisis and the attendant Great Recession of 2007–2009 have spawned a full-scale re-examination on the effectiveness of fiscal policy throughout the world. While this has led to a plethora of analyses in developed countries, the same abundance of the work has not been evident for developing counties. This paper uses time-series analysis to examine the multiplier impact of fiscal policy on growth and other macroeconomic variables in the case of four Caribbean states. Although these countries have similar degrees of openness, they differ in debt burdens and economic structures, thus providing a natural laboratory for this investigation. We concluded that fiscal multipliers among the sample countries are quite low and that the contemporaneous fiscal stance appears to be pro-cyclical.     

Improving companies' impacts on sustainable development: A nexus approach to the SDGS

Companies play a decisive role in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, most of the world's sustainable development challenges are interconnected and systemic in their nature. How can companies ensure that their strategies effectively contribute to sustainable development? This interdisciplinary paper draws from the social-ecological systems, corporate sustainability, and sustainability sciences literatures, in order to introduce a nexus approach to corporate sustainability. A nexus approach induces companies to assess and manage their positive and negative interactions with the SDGs—which may arise directly and indirectly—in an integrated manner. Instead of treating SDGs as isolated silos, a nexus approach aims to advance multiple SDGs simultaneously (creating “co-benefits”) while reducing the risk that contributions to one SDG undermine progress on another (avoiding “trade-offs”). Through managing the interactions between the SDGs, a nexus approach to corporate sustainability enables companies to improve their societal and environmental impacts. This nexus approach is a step towards developing a theory of sustainability management that helps companies improve their impacts on sustainable development. Such systemic corporate sustainability strategies are sorely needed to drive progress towards achieving the SDGs and to safeguard companies from “SDG-washing.”     

Layoffs,recalls and unemployment duration: evidence from Sweden

The question addressed in this paper is whether the possibility of exit from unemployment to the previous employer affects the duration of unemployment spells in Sweden. The empirical analysis is performed using an employee–employer dataset that includes a number of enterprise characteristics and provides information on individual tenure. The econometric approach employs estimation of a competing risk duration model to distinguish between exits to the previous employer and exits to a new job. The findings suggest that greater tenure raises the risk of transition to the previous employer, while high education levels increase the risk of obtaining a new job. Moreover, the impact of benefit exhaustion is observed only for transitions to new employment.     

The Role of Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union: are National Automatic Stabilizers Effective?*

We assess the role of national fiscal policies, as automatic stabilizers, within a monetary union. We use a two‐country New Keynesian DSGE model, incorporating non‐Ricardian consumers and a home bias in national consumption. Fiscal policy directly stabilizes non‐Ricardian agents' consumption. By doing so it contributes to the reduction in the volatility of variables such as output, wage inflation, and real interest rates. Our analysis of country‐specific shocks does not suggest potential inter‐country conflicts (as long as policies are constrained within the automatic stabilizers framework). However, we detect a potential conflict between the two consumer groups, because fiscal policy may raise optimizing agents' consumption volatility.