Science and technology forecasting today: Features of its methodology and object

The paper examines methodological and subject aspects of some problem questions that arise in organizing and technologization a long-term forecast procedure. It looks at the basic elements of the methodology and technique of a long-term forecast performed during the development of the Concept for Long-term Socioeconomic Development of the Russian Federation. Key conditions for technology application in the framework of two possible scenarios of Russian economic growth, primary-and-energy and innovation-active, are analyzed.     

Risk and concentration in payment and securities settlement systems

What drives the intraday patterns of settlement in payment and securities settlement systems? Using a model of the strategic interaction of participants in these systems to capture some stylized facts about the Federal Reserve's Fedwire funds and securities systems, this paper identifies three factors that influence a participant's decision on when to send transactions intraday: cost of intraday liquidity, extent of settlement risk, and system design. With these factors, the model can make predictions regarding the impact of policy on the concentration of transactions, amount of intraday overdrafts, central bank credit exposure, costs to system participants, and other risks.