铁路枢纽计算机模拟过程的实现

为科学、合理地对铁路枢纽编组站的改、新建进行决策,提出应用模拟技术,建立模型,对一些局部问题准确求解。斯洛伐克和中国等国专家研发了模拟软件VirtuOS,并应用该软件对欧洲、亚洲和我国牡丹江编组站进行实际模拟,取得成功。VirtuOS按照实际系统的作业方法、线路结构变化条件,采用反复迭代式的逼近,研究出多种方案,并在某种条件下进行分析、设计和优化,不仅能预先知道决策的结果,还能在节省资金的情况下,用现有可行经验求出最优的解决方案。铁路枢纽采用模拟软件VirtuOS研究解决方案和建议内容含线路布局、资源的规模和项目、技术服务目标、决策的制定、路网的变化等规划的基础。     

Real exchange rates,economic performance,and trade balances in the central european free trade association

The relationships between real exchange rates dynamics, domestic economic growth, and external economic positions are examined for four East European countries: Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. Results show that in Poland the dynamic of the trade balance is independent of both the real exchange rate and industrial production. In both Hungary and Slovakia, trade balances appear to have strong autonomous components, albeit in circumstances where the influence of real exchange rates and industrial production dynamics cannot be entirely denied. The Czech Republic's situation is, however, substantially different from its Central European Free Trade Assocation partners. The growing trade balance deficit appears to be determined by both the continuing real appreciation of the Czech currency and a mildly accelerating industrial production growth. Both are the consequence of accelerating capital inflow.     

Financial Crisis and its Asymmetric Macroeconomic Impact on Eurozone Member Countries

The purpose of the paper is to analyze the dynamics of EMU (The Economic and Monetary Union, i.e., the group of European countries who use the common currency euro) and to analyze the fallout from the recent financial and economic dynamics. Both the impact on the eurozone as a whole and on individual member countries will be evaluated. The first 11 years of Eurozone experience will be discussed and evaluated in the second section. The third section will then be devoted to analyzing the fallout from the recent financial and economic dynamics. Both the impact on the eurozone as a whole and on individual member countries will be evaluated. The last section concludes and provides some ideas for future development of eurozone.     

The role of production factor quality and technology diffusion in twentieth-century productivity growth

The twentieth century was a period of exceptional growth, driven mainly by the increase in total factor productivity (TFP). Using a database of 17 OECD countries over the 1890–2013 period, this paper integrates production factor quality into the measure of TFP, namely by factoring the level of education of the working-age population into the measure of labor and the age of equipment in the measure of capital stock. We then estimate how the diffusion of technology impacts the growth of this newly measured TFP through two emblematic general purpose technologies, electricity and information and communication technologies (ICT). Using growth decomposition methodology from instrumental variable estimates, this paper finds that education levels contribute most significantly to growth, while the age of capital makes a limited, although significant, contribution. Quality-adjusted production factors explain less than half of labor productivity growth in the largest countries except for Japan, where capital deepening posted a very large contribution. As a consequence, the “one big wave” of productivity growth (Gordon in Am Econ Rev 89(2):123–128, 1999), as well as the ICT productivity wave for the countries which experienced it, remains only partially explained by quality-adjusted factors, although education and technology diffusion contribute to explain the earlier wave in the USA in the 1930s–1940s. Finally, technology diffusion, as captured through our two general purpose technologies, leaves unexplained between 0.6 and 1 percentage point of yearly growth, as well as a large proportion of the two twentieth-century technology waves. These results both support a significant lag in the diffusion of general purpose technologies and raise further questions on a wider view on growth factors, including changes in the production process, management techniques and financing practices. Measurement problems may also contribute to the unexplained share of growth.     

Marx and Kalecki on aggregate instability and class struggle

Abstract

Michal Kalecki developed his original model of the business cycle in the early 1930s. Several versions referred as versions I, II and III have been developed until the late 1960s from which Kalecki draw three central propositions on instability and class struggle: (1) the capitalist system “cannot break the impasse of fluctuations around a static position” unless it is shocked by “semi-exogenous factors”, (2) the dynamics of the profit rate and investment – as in version I and II – may be disconnected from “class struggle” and (3) when class struggle impacts the dynamics of the economy – as in version III – this is happening in a context in which expected profitability of new investment projects is negatively related to the profit share. In this article, we want to show that each of these three proposals represents key differences with Marx.     

Pros and cons of official dollarization in Eastern Europe

The balance of payments barrier is the biggest obstacle to growth in Eastern Europe. This problem stems from the existence of individual national currencies which dynamically increases the risk associated with capital inflows. Capital inflow leads to both domestic growth and domestic currency real appreciation, reducing net exports to a level insufficient to service international debt obligations stemming from capital inflow. To avoid losses when capital flows are reversed, high domestic interest rates are required to stem capital outflow. Result is the decline of domestic economic activity. Adoption of foreign currency eliminates the need for net exports as the source of revenue needed to service debt obligation, hence it renders the balance of payments as an obstacle to sustained capital flows and economic growth irrelevant.     

Macroeconomic policy,output, and inflation in the former Czechoslovakia: Some evidence from the VAR analysis

Both macroeconomic policy and structural adjustment factors influenced the dynamics of output and inflation in the former Czechoslovakia during the first phase of its transition from central planning to markets. The results of VAR analysis indicate that, following price liberalization, the impact of structural adjustment processes on the level of output was somewhat stronger than the impact of macroeconomic policy. Moreover, it seems likely that a "looser" macroeconomic policy—advocated by many as a countermeasure to a large decline in industrial production—would only worsen the situation, bringing both higher inflation and a larger decline in industrial production.