Semi‐nonparametric competing risks analysis of recidivism

In this paper we specify a semi‐nonparametric competing risks (SNP‐CR) model of recidivism, for misdemeanors and felonies. The model is a bivariate mixed proportional hazard model with Weibull baseline hazards and common unobserved heterogeneity. The distribution of the latter is modeled semi‐nonparametrically, using orthonormal Legendre polynomials on the unit interval, and integrated out to make the two durations dependent, conditional on the covariates. The SNP‐CR model involved corresponds to a Logit model for felony arrest; hence the validity of the SNP‐CR model can be tested by testing the validity of the implied Logit model. The latter will be done by using the integrated conditional moment (ICM) test. In the first instance we have estimated and tested two versions of the SNP‐CR model, without and with fixed state effects. However, the ICM test rejects these models. Therefore, we have estimated and tested the model for each state separately. These state models are not rejected by the ICM test. Indeed, the estimation results vary substantially per state. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk‐Off Episodes and Swiss Franc Appreciation: The Role of Capital Flows

During episodes of increased global risk aversion, or risk‐off episodes, safe haven currencies such as the Swiss franc tend to appreciate. The immediate impact of a risk‐off shock is an increase in net private inflows to Switzerland, mostly driven by a reduction in Swiss residents’ net purchases of foreign debt securities and reduced foreign exposure by Swiss banks. Given that the bulk of capital movements related to risk‐off episodes is driven by decisions of Swiss residents, capital flow management policies that discriminate based on the residency of the investor (capital controls) are not likely to be effective at reducing the impact of risk‐off episodes. However, prudential policies that limit leveraging or foreign exposure by Swiss banks may diminish the volatility of capital flows during risk‐off episodes.     

Private-to-private Corruption

The cases of corruption reported by the media tend almost always to involve a private party (a citizen or a corporation) that pays, or promises to pay, money to a public party (a politician or a public official, for example) in order to obtain an advantage or avoid a disadvantage. Because of the harm it does to economic efficiency and growth, and because of its social, political and ethical consequences, private-to-public corruption has been widely studied. Private-to-private corruption, by contrast, has been relatively neglected and only recently has started to receive the attention it deserves. The purpose of this paper is to offer some thoughts on the nature and importance of private-to-private corruption; the legal treatment it receives in some of the world's leading countries; and the measures that companies can take to combat it, with special consideration of its ethical aspects.     

Cultural Tourism And Flamenco In The City Of Cordoba (Spain)

Flamenco is a tourist product that can attract many visitors from around the world, and the city of Cordoba (Spain) has an important role in the origins of flamenco. This work studies whether the satisfaction of cultural tourists who visit the city can be influenced by cultural offers related to flamenco. To achieve this objective, fieldwork was carried out based on 709 surveys conducted in the most important flamenco “tablaos” (stages) of the city. The techniques of factorial analysis and linear adjustment were used. The results show that flamenco can be a product that complements the satisfaction of cultural tourists.     

Planning considerations for cultural tourism: a case study of four European cities

Utilising the information gathered in four European cities, this paper discusses and tests a framework of reference for visitor-friendliness, a complex concept that encapsulates the main dimensions of the urban tourism product such as its quality, accessibility and image projection. This concept is particularly relevant to assess whether investments in culture and hospitality genuinely respond to the impulses coming from the market. The case studies highlight how specific soft elements of the urban tourism product are the ones that matter most in determining the attractiveness of a city for international visitors, and yet they are often overlooked by city planners. The paper also identifies a number of “best practice” in tourism management.     

Enhancing youth's attitudes towards microcredit in the bottom of the pyramid markets

The bottom of the pyramid (BOP) market comprises a huge customer size of approximately 4 billion globally; hence, segmentation is necessary within this market. The BOP market refers to an aggregate of customers who survive on relatively low‐income levels. In this respect, youth in war‐affected regions can be considered to be a segment of the BOP market. However, there is scant research on customers' attitudes and purchase behaviours in the BOP markets or segments therein. Hence, the purpose of this research is to investigate war‐affected youth's attitudes towards microcredit and the related drivers of these attitudes. The literature revealed four types of attitudes towards microcredit: positive affect, perceived benefits, perceived deterrents and default risk perceptions. Also, knowledge of microcredit and entrepreneurial desire were considered to be the drivers of these attitudes. A total of 795 valid completed surveys were collected from youth aged 18 and above who live in the Northern Province of Sri Lanka. The findings revealed that positive affect enhanced intentions to obtain microcredit, whereas perceived deterrents reduced them. Knowledge of microcredit enhanced attitudes towards microcredit. Also, entrepreneurial desire enhanced the association between positive affect and intentions to obtain microcredit and it decreased the negative association between perceived deterrents and intentions to obtain microcredit. The implications to theory and practice have been discussed which will go a long way in enhancing the attitudes towards microcredit among war‐affected youth and possibly those in the other segments of the BOP market.     

Women on the Board and Managers’ Pay: Evidence from Spain

The current literature shows great interest in the issue of gender diversity on boards of directors. Some studies have hypothesized a direct relationship between diversity and the value of the firm, but not many examine the intermediate mechanisms that may exert an influence on such relationships. We employ two stages of GMM estimation methodology to exhibit evidences of the relationship between gender diversity and compensation of top managers in the Spanish context. Results show that gender diversity positively affects the effectiveness of boards—in terms of composition, structure, size and functioning—influencing a proper design of top managers compensation linked to company performance. Evidences suggest that legislative actions aimed at increasing the presence of women on boards of directors are justified not only for ethical reasons, but also for reasons of economic efficiency.     

A Psychological Reexamination of the Bertrand Paradox

The Bertrand paradox describes a situation in which two competing firms reach an outcome where both price at marginal cost. In laboratory experiments, this equilibrium is not generally observed. Existing empirical works on Bertrand competition have found evidence for boundedly rational models. We find that such models are useful in organizing behavior in early stages of the game, but less so in later stages. We show that a new model, coarse grid Nash equilibrium, based on the assumption that subjects discretize the strategy space, explains the data better.     

Risk-type density diagrams by crash type on two-lane rural roads

The research presented here aims to plot density diagrams per road crash risk type to identify all possible scenarios where driving is less than safe. The starting point was the prediction of injury crash rate on horizontal homogeneous segments of two-lane rural roads for three main injurious crash types (head-on/side collisions, rear-end crashes, and single-vehicle run-off-road crashes) as observed on the network. A careful analysis of the database shows that a wide variety of factors appear to be influenced or associated with the crash dynamic, as follows: the road scenario (combination of infrastructure and environmental conditions found at the site at the time of the crash), mean lane width, the horizontal curvature indicator (measurement of the curvature change rate), and mean speed. Crashes recorded from 2003 to 2010, of which 1597 were injurious, and 645 resulted only in damage to property, were analyzed on more than 3700?km of road network in Southern Italy. Generalized estimating equations with a negative binomial distribution were implemented. Risk-type density charts were plotted to thoroughly identify all possible combinations of existing explicative variables producing hazardous conditions on the road. The different shades in the diagrams represent different ranges of injurious crash rates: the white band shows low levels, while a black band shows high values. It is not possible to consider working on an explanatory variable to reduce hazardous conditions on the road network without also considering how this variation might affect the influence of the remaining explanatory variables on crash phenomena and, consequently, on the predictive model. The risk maps make it possible to keep under control in a simple and immediate approach the way each variable as a result of variations of a part or of all.     

Regularity and Pareto improving on financial equilibria with price-dependent borrowing restrictions

We consider a pure exchange, general equilibrium model, with two periods and a finite number of states, commodities, numeraire assets, and households. Participation in the asset markets is restricted in a household specific manner, imposing upper bounds on the amounts of borrowing which can be obtained using assets. Those bounds are assumed to depend on asset and commodity prices. After establishing existence of equilibria, we show that, generically in the set of the economies, equilibria are finite and regular. Then, we restrict our attention to the significant set of economies in which some associated equilibria exhibit a sufficiently high number of strictly binding participation constraints. We prove that, generically in that set, those equilibria are Pareto improvable through a local change of the participation constraints.