A model for projecting flight delays during irregular operation conditions

On-time performance of airlines schedule is key factor in maintaining current customer satisfaction and attracting new ones. This requires management of the different operation resources (crew/aircraft) to ensure their on-time readiness for each flight in the planned schedule. However, flight schedules are often subjected to irregularity. In particular, weather accounts for nearly 75% of system delays. Due to the tight connection among airlines resources, these delays could dramatically propagate over time and space unless the proper recovery actions are taken. This paper presents a model which projects flight delays and alerts for possible future breaks during irregular operation conditions. The results of applying the model at the operation control center of a major airlines company in the US are presented.     

Inter-firm scalar linkage in India: A class within the small scale industry

Along with the growing industrial sector, functional complementarity between large and small scale enterprises has become a widely prevalent phenomenon. Expanding the base of the industrial production leads to division of processes where large and small scale units operate as complementary to each other. Such complementarity and division of labour between the different sized units results into cost minimization, and acceleration in growth of the manufacturing sector.However the extent and the pattern of functional complementarity (between large and small scale enterprises) is likely to be conditioned by market as well as institutional factors. Therefore, in order to examine the impact of interscale complementarity in terms of growth as well as of distribution of gains across large and small scale enterprises it is very important to learn about the nature of interfirm linkages and the process through which linkages get established. It is in this context, the present paper furnishes details based on a case study of Textile Machinery Parts Manufacturing (TMP) industry in a metropolitan city (Ahmedabad). The industry represented is constituted by a large number of small scale firms that are engaged in fabricating replacement parts for the users of machinery equipments (i.e. Textile Mills) who operate on a large scale. Owing to wide range of products, and in case of some parts higher frequency of replacement, the TMP industry, at least till recently, has sustained a large number of small firms.The major findings of the analysis are: (i) The incidence of inter-firm linkages is limited to about a third of the small scale firms; (ii) Among various forms of linkages the marketing linkages are the most predominant (iii) The linkage relationship has been a positive factor in determining the performance of the small scale firms; (iv) Personal contacts play an important role in inter-firm linkages, thus benefits of linkage relationship are mainly confined to a small social-group of industrialists; (v) While the small scale suppliers operate under a highly competitive market, the buyers often enjoy oligopsonist's advantage; hence the gains of competitive efficiency tend to favour the large scale sector.     

Weather Effects on Stock Returns and Volatility in South Asian Markets

We study the effect of mood-proxy variables on index returns and volatility in six South Asian markets. Our mood-proxy variables include six weather (temperature, humidity, cloud cover, air pressure, visibility, and wind speed), three weather indicator variables (fog, thunder storm and rain or drizzle) and two biorhythmic variables (SAD and lunar phases). We adopt a robust approach and attempt to select the best parsimonious econometric model for each market. Our findings suggest that mood-proxy variables have some convincing influences in South Asian capital markets. In some instances, these variables are influencing returns while in other instances they are influencing volatility.     

Creating advocates: understanding the roles of CSR and firm innovativeness

Although previous studies revealed the positive effect of CSR perceptions on customer behaviour, the relationship between CSR and perceived firm innovativeness (PFI) has been underexplored. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it attempts to propose and validate a model to comprehend the relationship between CSR and PFI. Second, it aims to investigate the mediating role of corporate image stemming from CSR and PFI in order to foster customer advocacy intentions. Data were collected from 360 customers of the retail banking industry in Pakistan, and the results indicate that customers’ CSR perceptions directly and positively influence PFI. Interestingly, corporate image fully mediates the relationship between PFI and advocacy intentions, whereas it plays a partial mediation role in the CSR-advocacy intentions relationship. The findings of this research expand the corpus regarding the roles of CSR and PFI in creating advocacy intentions among customers through the corporate image.

     

Foreign and Domestic Shocks: Macroeconomic Responses of ASEAN-3 Countries

Abstract

The study provides new empirical evidence on the relative importance of foreign and domestic shocks on selected ASEAN-3 (Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand) macroeconomic variables. Three structural vector auto regression models are estimated for each country. The focal point is given on the formulation of the sources of foreign factors. The first model uses trade-weighted foreign variables of both US and Japan to represent the foreign factors. The other two models use US and Japan by themselves, respectively, to represent the foreign factors. Two important results are emerged. First, foreign sectors play an important role in influencing macroeconomic variables of each of the ASEAN-3 country, especially in the medium and the long-run horizon. Second, most of the time, the Japanese factors are more dominant than the US factors in influencing domestic output and inflation for each of the ASEAN-3 countries.     

Private capital flows,stock market and economic growth in developed and developing countries: A comparative analysis

Empirically we investigate how three types of private capital flows could promote economic growth in recipient developed and developing countries. Our focus is on the role of stock markets as a channel through which foreign capital flows could promote growth. The findings reveal that FDI exhibits a positive impact on growth, while both foreign debt and portfolio investment have a negative impact on growth in all sample countries. However, our results indicate that stock markets might be a significant channel or leading institutional factor through which capital flows affect economic growth. The findings provide clear implications that the negative impact of private capital flows can be transformed into a positive one if the stock market development has attained a certain threshold level, regardless of whether it is in developed or developing countries.     

Globalizations and bank performance in China

The paper provides for the first time empirical evidence on the impact of economic globalization on the performance of banks operating in the Chinese banking sector. The empirical findings from this study suggest that the well capitalized banks tend to be more profitable, while expense preference behavior exerts negative impact on bank profitability in China. By examining different components of economic globalization, we find that greater economic integration via higher trade flows, cultural proximity, and greater political globalization have significant and positive influence on bank profitability levels. The impacts of personal contacts and information flows seem to work in favour of the Chinese banks. During the period under study, the empirical findings seem to suggest that liberalization (restrictions) of the capital account exerts positive (negative) influence on the profitability of banks operating in the Chinese banking sector.     

How important is the financial sector to price indices in an inflation targeting regime? An empirical analysis of the UK and the US

This paper investigates whether there are benefits in terms of higher economic stability from incorporating stock prices into the price index targeted by the central banks. It also looks into the question of whether central banks should use stock prices as a component of the output stability index and how the index can be constructed. An optimization technique is employed to estimate weights for the various sectoral prices. The obtained weights, which depend on sectoral parameters, differ from those used in the construction of the consumer price index, CPI. Using data from the UK and the US, our analysis demonstrates that in comparison to the CPI, our measure of inflation leads to a higher output stability. Thus, in an inflation-targeting monetary policy environment, it is important to adopt a broader inflation benchmark than the CPI for the general macroeconomic stability.     

The Impact of Single Stock Futures on Market Efficiency and Volatility: A Dynamic CAPM Approach

The concerns regarding regulations of futures markets and their destabilizing ability are unresolved in both developed and developing markets. Following stringent regulations of single stock futures (SSFs) for resumption episode after financial crises, this study addresses this concern and investigates the destabilizing impact of SSFs on the underlying stocks in an emerging economy using data of companies listed in the Karachi Stock Exchange between 1999 and 2008. Specifically, the study explores whether SSFs have caused a simultaneous increase in the volatility and operational efficiency of their underlying spot market counterparts. The results reported in the study show that the introduction of SSFs has no significant impact on market efficiency and volatility of SSFs underlying stocks and non-SSFs stocks. The results affirm that SSFs have, at least, no destabilizing impact on the underlying stocks.     

The balance sheet channel of monetary policy: the panel evidence of Egypt

This paper examines the effects of monetary policy on firms’ investments in Egypt using disaggregated data and generalized method of moments (GMM) technique. It develops the neoclassical investment model by adding the interaction between user cost of capital and cash flow (CF). Therefore, monetary policy affects investment through three effects: user cost of capital, CF and interaction between them. Using a sample of 124 firms, the empirical finding supports the relevance of balance sheet channel (BSC) and the heterogeneous effect of monetary policy on investment. This finding signals that monetary authority should take cognizance of the stability of interest rate to stabilize firm-level investment.