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101.
    
We study circumstances when analysts’ forecasts diverge from managers’ forecasts after management guidance, and the consequences of this divergence for investors and analysts. Our results show that investors’ return response to earnings surprises based on analyst forecasts is significantly weaker when analyst and management forecasts diverge, and that this attenuating effect is stronger when the management forecast is more credible. When the divergent management forecast is more accurate than the analyst consensus forecast, the subsequent‐quarter analyst consensus forecast is significantly more accurate than that of the current quarter, and exhibits less serial correlation. Overall, our findings suggest that, when analyst and management forecasts diverge, investors find the two sources to contain complementary information, and analysts learn to improve their subsequent forecasts.  相似文献   
102.
    
During the last three decades, integer‐valued autoregressive process of order p [or INAR(p)] based on different operators have been proposed as a natural, intuitive and maybe efficient model for integer‐valued time‐series data. However, this literature is surprisingly mute on the usefulness of the standard AR(p) process, which is otherwise meant for continuous‐valued time‐series data. In this paper, we attempt to explore the usefulness of the standard AR(p) model for obtaining coherent forecasting from integer‐valued time series. First, some advantages of this standard Box–Jenkins's type AR(p) process are discussed. We then carry out our some simulation experiments, which show the adequacy of the proposed method over the available alternatives. Our simulation results indicate that even when samples are generated from INAR(p) process, Box–Jenkins's model performs as good as the INAR(p) processes especially with respect to mean forecast. Two real data sets have been employed to study the expediency of the standard AR(p) model for integer‐valued time‐series data.  相似文献   
103.
Starting from a low base, south–south trade has picked up momentum over the last two decades. It is emerging as a new dimension of the global economy and can potentially usher in several benefits for developing economies. The emerging economies of the dynamic south (EEDS) not only provided a striking impetus to south–south trade but also contributed to the changing mise-en-scène of the global economy. However, given the moribund state of the Doha Round, additional policy measures need to be taken by the EEDS.  相似文献   
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105.
It is shown that fractional factorial plans represented by orthogonal arrays of strength three are universally optimal under a model that includes the mean, all main effects and all two-factor interactions between a specified factor and each of the other factors. Thus, such plans exhibit a kind of model robustness in being universally optimal under two different models. Procedures for obtaining universally optimal block designs for fractional factorial plans represented by orthogonal arrays are also discussed. Acknowledgements. The authors wish to thank the referees for making several useful comments on a previous version.  相似文献   
106.
107.
Integration of South Asian Economies: an exercise in frustration?   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
This paper examines the factors underlying the slow progress towards economic integration between the countries of the South Asian region, and discusses the worth and likelihood of an effective agreement. It is argued that substantial integration will only take place after further economic growth leads to increased complementarity in their economic structures.  相似文献   
108.
The Firm's Management of Social Interactions   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
Consumer choice is influenced in a direct and meaningful way by the actions taken by others. These “actions” range from face-to-face recommendations from a friend to the passive observation of what a stranger is wearing. We refer to the set of such contexts as “social interactions” (SI). We believe that at least some of the SI effects are partially within the firm's control and that this represents an exciting research opportunity. We present an agenda that identifies a list of unanswered questions of potential interest to both researchers and managers. In order to appreciate the firm's choices with respect to its management of SI, it is important to first evaluate where we are in terms of understanding the phenomena themselves. We highlight five questions in this regard: (1) What are the antecedents of word of mouth (WOM)? (2) How does the transmission of positive WOM differ from that of negative WOM? (3) How does online WOM differ from offline WOM? (4) What is the impact of WOM? (5) How can we measure WOM? Finally, we identify and discuss four principal, non-mutually exclusive, roles that the firm might play: (1) observer, (2) moderator, (3) mediator, and (4) participant.  相似文献   
109.
    
Offering movies on the Internet is one way of combating the issue of online movie piracy, although the tradeoff is the cannibalization of the more revenue-generating channels. Given this tradeoff and the rather unique “staggered window distribution” mechanism followed by the movie industry, this article addresses the problem of when the studio owner should release the movie online to maximize the entire revenue stream of that movie. A general modeling approach that assumes an exponential demand function and fixed release times in the remaining channels is provided. Detailed illustration using three different movie types demonstrates that a high revenue-generating movie should be released online just prior to its home video release, while the online release of an average or below-average movie should coincide with their withdrawal from the theaters. Sensitivity analyses of the results are also displayed and give the circumstances under which a different online release time is warranted. The analysis suggests, among other things, that if a movie has an excellent opening strength and is able to sustain its revenues quite well, it would be more profitable to release the movie online a few weeks before it is withdrawn from the theaters. Additionally, the standard outcomes generated by the model are found to be sensitive to any online per-unit price change.  相似文献   
110.
    
The leadership assessment questionnaire (LAQ) is a 360 degree survey instrument designed to help organizational leaders identify their own style of leadership and formulate appropriate development objectives. It is designed to provide avenues for development of an executive team in which multiple leadership archetypes are represented. The LAQ is based on eight leadership archetypes – strategist, change-catalyst, transactor, builder, innovator, processor, coach, and communicator. These archetypes are representations of ways of leading in a complex organizational environment. In this article, we discuss the development, design, and psychometric analysis of the LAQ. We detail the conceptual foundations of the questionnaire and the psychometric methods used to confirm the validity and reliability of the instrument. We conclude with avenues for future research.  相似文献   
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