International Monetary Policy Spillovers

Open Economies Review - This paper explores for spillovers from monetary policy in the United States to a number of advanced countries, namely Canada, Denmark, the Eurozone, Japan, Sweden,...     

The Output Effects of Money Growth Uncertainty: Evidence from a Multivariate GARCH-in-Mean VAR

In this paper we extend the work in Serletis and Shahmoradi (Macroecon Dyn 10:652–666, 2006) by investigating the effects of money growth uncertainty on real economic activity, in the context of a multivariate framework in which a structural vector autoregression is modified to accommodate multivariate GARCH-in-Mean errors, as in Elder (J Money, Credit Bank 36:912–928, 2004). The model uses a recursive identification scheme, takes into account the possible interaction between conditional means and variances, isolates the effects of money growth volatility on output growth, and is able to explicitly model heteroskedasticity. We use quarterly data for the United States over the period from 1959:1 to 2005:4, provide a comparison among simple-sum, Divisia, and currency equivalent monetary aggregation procedures at each of the four levels of monetary aggregation—M1, M2, M3, and MZM—and find evidence that money growth volatility has significant negative effects on output growth. Issues of structural stability are addressed and sub-sample analysis is performed. Moreover, the robustness of the results to alternative identification schemes, alternative measures of the level of economic activity, and to the use of monthly observations is also investigated.     

Re-Exploring the Enlargement of the Eurozone: Evidence from the New Member-States

The debt crisis of the Euro Area in 2010 raised plenty of doubts concerning the sustainability of the monetary union. Eurozone includes economies which have different structural characteristics. This event does not allow the establishment of an optimal currency area. The present research attempts to explore if the join of Cyprus, Malta, Latvia, Slovenia and Slovakia in the Eurozone was in favor of their economies. We used the nominal exchange rates as a financial instrument by combing the Error Correction Model with the Threshold GARCH, ECM-TGARCH. The empirical findings highly support that the EU membership influenced positively the relationship between the euro and the Cypriot Pound, the Latvian Lats and the Slovenian Tolar. On the contrary, we discovered that the join of Malta in the EU had a slightly negative and a long-term impact in the relationship between the euro and the Maltese currency. Finally, the entrance of Slovakia in the EU influenced positively the Slovakian currency. However, the relationship between the euro and the Slovakian Koruna remained negative.     

Shadow prices of $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ emissions at US electric utilities: a random-coefficient,random-directional-vector directional output distance function approach

We estimate the shadow prices of \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions of electric utilities in the US over the period from 2001 to 2014, using a random-coefficient, random-directional-vector directional output distance function (DODF) model. The main feature of this model is that both its coefficients and directional vector are allowed to vary across firms, thus allowing different firms to have different production technologies and to follow different growth paths. Our Bayes factor analysis indicates that this model is strongly favored over the commonly used fixed-coefficient DODF model. Our results obtained from this model suggest that the average annual shadow price of \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions ranges from $61.62 to $105.72 (in 2001 dollars) with an average of $83.12. The results also suggest that the firm-specific average shadow price differs significantly across electric utilities. In addition, our estimates of the shadow price of \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions show an upward trend for both the sample electric utilities as a whole and the majority of the individual sample electric utilities.     

A primal Divisia technical change index based on the output distance function

We derive a primal Divisia technical change index based on the output distance function and further show the validity of this index from both economic and axiomatic points of view. In particular, we derive the primal Divisia technical change index by total differentiation of the output distance function with respect to a time trend. We then show that this index is dual to the Jorgenson and Griliches (1967) dual Divisia total factor productivity growth (TFPG) index when both the output and input markets are competitive; dual to the Diewert and Fox (2008) markup-adjusted revenue-share-based dual Divisia technical change index when market power is limited to output markets; dual to the Denny et al. (1981) and Fuss (1994) cost-elasticity-share-based dual Divisia TFPG index when market power is limited to output markets and constant returns to scale is present; and also dual to a markup-and-markdown-adjusted Divisia technical change index when market power is present in both output and input markets. Finally, we show that the primal Divisia technical change index satisfies the properties of identity, commensurability, monotonicity, and time reversal. It also satisfies the property of proportionality in the presence of path independence, which in turn requires separability between inputs and outputs and homogeneity of subaggregator functions.     

Terrorism and capital markets: The effects of the Madrid and London bomb attacks

Using event study methodology and GARCH family models, the paper investigates the effects of two terrorist incidents – the bomb attacks of 11th March 2004 in Madrid and 7th July 2005 in London – on equity sectors. Significant negative abnormal returns are widespread across the majority of sectors in the Spanish markets but not so in the case of London. Furthermore, the market rebound is much quicker in London compared to the Spanish markets where the attackers were not suicide bombers. Nevertheless, the overall findings point to only a transitory impact on return and volatility that does not last for a long period.     

The ex-dividend day stock price anomaly: evidence from the Greek stock market

This paper examines the ex-dividend stock price and trading volume behavior in the Greek stock market for the period 2000–2004. We use both standard event-study methodology and cross-sectional regression analysis in assessing the ex-dividend stock price anomaly. We find that stock prices drop less than the dividend amount. By examining abnormal returns as well as abnormal trading volume around the ex-dividend day, we find strong evidence of short-term trading, which is consistent with the presence of dividend-capturing activities around the ex-dividend day. The results from the cross-sectional regression analysis confirm that the short-term trading hypothesis explains the ex-dividend day stock price anomaly in Greece.

Speculative bubbles in the S&P 500: Was the tech bubble confined to the tech sector?

This study tests for the presence of periodically, partially collapsing speculative bubbles in the sector indices of the S&P 500 using a regime-switching approach. We also employ an augmented model that includes trading volume as a technical indicator to improve the ability of the model to time bubble collapses and to better capture the temporal variations in returns. We find that well over half of the S&P 500 index by market capitalization and seven of its ten sector component indices exhibited at least some bubble-like behavior over our sample period. Thus the speculative bubble that grew in the 1990s and subsequently collapsed was surprisingly pervasive in the US equity market and it affected numerous sectors including financials and general industrials, rather than being confined to information technology, telecommunications and the media. In addition, we develop a joint model for cross-sectional contagion of bubbles across the sectors and we examine whether there is evidence for bubble spillovers.