Testing for substitutability in the mackerel market: a new method using fractional cointegration

This article seeks to extend knowledge of the mackerel (Scomber scombrus) market in the Basque Country (a region in Spain) by analysing possible relationships between this and other species with similar characteristics such as the sardine (Sardina pilchardus), the horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus) and the Atlantic chub mackerel (Scomber colias), all of them landed at the ports of the Basque Country. Specifically, the goal is to learn whether these other species can be considered as mackerel substitutes. To that end, a fractional cointegration analysis of different series of historical prices is performed using a novel method never before used in studies of this type. The results indicate that mackerel have no substitutes, and thus form a mono-species regional market. This implies, among other things, that their price is not influenced by the prices of other species, and this should be taken into account by managers when designing management measures and policies to improve the sustainability of the fishing of this species.     

Seismic vulnerability assessment of historical urban centres: case study of the old city centre of Faro,Portugal

The necessity of implementing seismic vulnerability assessment procedures to the Portuguese building stock has become urgent as recent predictions indicate the possibility of the occurrence of an earthquake similar to the well-known 1755 Lisbon earthquake within the next 50 years. Obviously, at first instance, large-scale procedures should be used rather than more extensive and accurate methodologies suited for individual buildings assessment. Moreover, it is fundamental to operate in the most vulnerable areas in our built environment, typically, the historical urban centres. As it is recognised, it is within these areas, that old masonry buildings are generally concentrated, being both the most representative and vulnerable constructive typology. Comprising 354 buildings, the case study of the old city centre of Faro is herein presented aiming at analysing and evaluating the seismic vulnerability of its old masonry building stock. In order to achieve these objectives, a vulnerability-index-based methodology was used for the assessment of the seismic vulnerability of the old masonry buildings belonging to the historical centre of Faro (Ribeirinha area) carried out through detailed inspection and survey. The results obtained were analysed using a geographical information system tool. The integration of such vulnerability and loss results represents a valuable tool for city councils and/or regional authorities to plan interventions, on the basis of a global view of the site under analysis, leading this way to more accurate and comprehensive risk mitigation strategies which comply with the requirements of safety and emergency planning. The application of this large-scale scoring methodology has confirmed moderate-to-high values for the vulnerability of this particular area, which combined with its high seismicity, may be quite alarming.     

Regulating a Monopolist with Unknown Demand: Costly Public Funds and the Value of Private Information

In this paper, we analyze the optimal regulation policy when the regulated firm has better information concerning the market demand than the regulator. We show that introducing a cost on public funds into the Planner's objective function does not lead to qualitative results similar to those obtained by introducing distributional considerations. In particular we show that under constant marginal cost the full information policy is not implementable and that the optimal regulatory policy results in informational rents. The social value of private information and the firm's informational rents are both increasing functions of the cost of the public funds.     

Valuation and Management of Fishing Resources Under Price Uncertainty

The traditional expected-net-present-value methods cannot properly capture the management flexibility and strategic value aspects of a fishery, and may understate its value. Instead, this paper develops a Real Options model to conceptualize and evaluate fishery exploitation flexibility. Specifically, general models to value the opportunity to either exploit or invest in a fishery are presented. They suffice to determine not only these values, but also the optimal policy for opening, closing, delaying and setting its harvest rate. The sustainable case in which the harvest rate equals the natural net growth function is also considered. Concerning the exploitation decision, it is found that, as could be expected, the higher the resource price the higher the value of this opportunity in both models (general and sustainable). However, the resource stock affects both models differently. As to the investment opportunity, its value is always lower than the exploitation opportunity because of investment costs. Finally, numerical simulations are run in order to illustrate the nature of the solution. Sensitivity analysis concerning the influence of the tax rate, convenience yield, risk-free interest rate and price volatility on the value of the fishery is also reported. Earlier versions of this paper have benefited from conference participants at the Young Economists Conference 2000 (Oxford University), Tenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade (Oregon State University), XXV Simposio de Análisis Económico (Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona, Spain) and Seminar at the Dpt. Fundamentos del Análisis Económico (Universidad del País Vasco, Spain). We especially thank Prof. Ian Bateman and two anonymous referees whose insightful comments have enabled us to eliminate several errors and to improve the presentation. Murillas gratefully acknowledges doctoral fellowship from Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia (AP96), and financial support from the Xunta de Galicia (PGIDT01PXI30004PR) and from the Ministerio de Ciencia y Teconología (SEC 2001-3700). The usual disclaimer applies.