GASOLINE PRICES,GOVERNMENT SUPPORT,AND THE DEMAND FOR HYBRID VEHICLES IN THE UNITED STATES*

We analyze the determinants of hybrid vehicle demand, focusing on gasoline prices and income tax incentives. We find that hybrid vehicle sales in 2006 would have been 37% lower had gasoline prices stayed at the 1999 levels, and the effect of the federal income tax credit program is estimated at 20% in 2006. Under the program, the cost of reducing gasoline consumption was $75 per barrel in government revenue and that of CO₂ emission reduction was $177 per ton. We show that the cost effectiveness of federal tax programs can be improved by a flat rebate scheme.     

Project Valuation With Time-Varying Cash Flows: A Bayesian Approach

This article investigates the valuation of a project when the distributions of cash flows vary over time. The decision maker is assumed to be a Bayesian decision maker under uncertainty. Using the dynamic programming principle of backward induction and assuming that the capital asset pricing model is valid in each time period, we derive the project's valuation formulas and systematic risks, and investigate their characteristics. Our valuation formulas embed a Bayesian learning effect and differ from the traditional textbook capital budgeting formulas.     

Debt stabilization games in the presence of risk premia

As a result of the recent financial crisis and the ensuing economic recession, fiscal deficits have soared in many OECD countries. As a consequence, government debt has been on the rise again after a period of stable or declining government debt. In this paper we analyze debt stabilization in a country that features endogenous risk premia, imposed by financial markets that evaluate the probability of debt default by governments. Endogenous risk premia arise by assuming, e.g., simple linear relations between risk premia and the level of debt. As a result the real interest rate on government debt can be written as a constant (measuring the risk-free real interest rate corrected for real output growth) plus an endogenous risk premium that depends on the debt level. We bring such an endogenous risk premium into Tabellini (1986) model and analyze the impact of it. This gives rise to a non-linear differential game. We solve this game for both a cooperative setting and a non-cooperative setting. The non-cooperative game is solved under an open-loop information structure. We present a bifurcation analysis w.r.t. the risk premium parameter.     

Efficiency Gains in Rank‐ordered Multinomial Logit Models

This paper considers estimation of discrete choice models when agents report their ranking of the alternatives (or some of them) rather than just the utility maximizing alternative. We investigate the parametric conditional rank‐ordered Logit model. We show that conditions for identification do not change even if we observe ranking. Moreover, we fill a gap in the literature and show analytically and by Monte Carlo simulations that efficiency increases as we use additional information on the ranking.     

Effects of subsidies in Russian dairy farming

This study develops a microeconometric model of specialized dairy farms in the Moscow region using panel data over the period 1995–2001. The model is used to analyze the role of subsidies on profit as well as input and output allocation. Theoretical conditions for short‐term profit maximization are not rejected by the data. Differences between farms allow for a fixed‐effect specification. The dairy producers in the region demonstrate a low responsiveness to market signals, but technology change becomes important. Labor, land, and livestock had low shadow prices. Although subsidies have a distorting effect on the input–output mix, this study shows they relieve the credit constraints on dairy farms and have an important positive influence on farm profit.     

Strategies for sustainable intensification in East African highlands: labor use and input efficiency

Strategies for poverty alleviation and sustainable natural resource management usually focus on land use options for improving yields. Increasing the returns to critical factors requires possibilities for input substitution. Inadequate timing of input applications or nonavailability of complementary factors can seriously hinder this substitution. Such constraints particularly apply in less‐favored areas where soil organic matter content is too low for enabling efficient nutrient uptake and soil structure limits water infiltration and moisture retention. This article focuses attention on the importance of labor for crop management activities and input applications that enhance input efficiency in highland area cropping systems of Northern Ethiopia. Given the inherent complementarities between labor and nutrient supply during critical phases of the plant growth process, input efficiency strongly depends on labor use. We present a semiparametric bioeconomic modeling approach to analyze the available options for improving input efficiency in agricultural production. Input response equations are used that consider the returns per unit of land and labor as a function of specific combinations of material inputs and management practices. Critical trade‐offs may arise when opportunity costs for labor are considered or when complementary factors appear as binding constraints. The model enables assessment of feasible pathways for enhancing sustainable intensification and poverty alleviation in typical settings of the East African highland region.     

Disentangling the tourism sector’s fragmentation: a hands-on coding/post-coding guide for interview and policy document analysis in tourism†

Qualitative tourism research is inevitably multidimensional. The fragmentation of the tourism sector across policy domains, scales, space and stakeholders leads to ‘blurry’ and aggregated datasets. Yet, tourism studies have a weak record in describing how results emanate from raw qualitative data. This paper presents a coding/post-coding scheme that proved robust in disentangling multidimensional tourism datasets in a middle-range research project that necessitated reflecting on the position of the researcher and the literature study during the data analysis. It describes the pragmatic decisions taken to organise the qualitative data from a research project on cross-border tourism and regional development processes. The paper also functions as a reflexive account of how this scheme came into existence. It contributes to the tools available to practically acknowledge the fragmentation of the tourism sector and the resulting multidimensional qualitative data, and calls for a more open accounting of the data analysis process and the underlying research values in tourism studies.     

Choice Based on Goals

This article introduces a goal-based view of consumer choice in which (1) choice is influenced by three classes of goals (consumption goals, criterion goals, and process goals), (2) goals are cognitively represented, and (3) the impact of a goal on choice depends on its activation. For each class of goals, we discuss how goal activation is influenced by direct (subconscious) goal priming, by spreading activation from choice options, from other goals, and from the context, and by goal (non-)achievement. Opportunities for modeling goal-based choice, the integration of emotions in a theory of goal-based choice, and relationships with dual-process theories of decision making are discussed. An expanded version of this paper is available from the first author.     

How useful is the PSE in determining agricultural support?

The support of the agricultural sector in developed countries plays a major role in the international policy agenda. The producer support estimate (PSE) is one of the best known measures which has been developed by OECD and is used all over the globe. In the PSE all types of support are aggregated and one of the main components (70% at OECD level) is the market price support (MPS). Here we show by means of characteristic examples that the MPS has no clear relation to basic economic measures determining support for producers as a consequence of policy intervention. The MPS overestimates the consequences of tariffs and export subsidies and underestimates the consequences of quota systems in determining producer support. Misperception of the size and directions of support may affect policy decision-making wrongly. The paper indicates that weighted average producer prices, corrected for quantity restrictions, may be more useful than the reference prices and quantities used by OECD.