Utility and economics

Summary Although utility has been the central concept in economics, economists have paid relatively little attention to its measurement. Generally, utility is measured indirectly via the revealed preference approach. We discuss problems with this approach and next introduce alternative direct measurement methods. The direct measurement methods are seen to spawn a so-called theory of preference formation, which explains differences in utility functions of different individuals. The similarities of this theory with related theories in sociology and psychology, and various sorts of empirical evidence, are reviewed. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for economic theories.This is a slightly adapted version of my inaugural address at Tilburg University. I thank Tom Wansbeek for his helpful comments.     

Capital Utilisation in Indonesian Medium and Large Scale Manufacturing∗

This article presents the main results of a survey of the utilisation of existing productive capacity in the Indonesian manufacturing sector. It was found that although prevailing levels of capital utilisation in Indonesian manufacturing do not appear to be out of line with levels observed in other developing countries, there is scope for improvement in some sectors. The paper suggests some policy reforms which would improve the competitive environment for Indonesian manufacturing and increase the price ratio of capital to labour, thus promoting more intensive capital utilisation in the manufacturing sector.

     

Pricing futures on geometric indexes: A discrete time approach

Several futures contracts are written against an underlying asset that is a geometric, rather than arithmetic, index. These contracts include: the US Dollar Index futures, the CRB-17 futures, and the Value Line geometric index futures. Due to the geometric averaging, the standard cost-of-carry futures pricing formula is improper for pricing these futures contracts. We assume that asset prices are lognormally distributed, and capital markets are complete. Using the concepts of equivalent martingale measure and the risk-neutral valuation relationships in conjunction with discrete time methodology, we derive closed-form pricing formulas for these contracts. Our pricing formulas are consistent with the ones obtained via a continuous time paradigm.

Lot Size Constraints and Market Quality: Evidence from the Borsa Italiana

Trading venues often impose a minimum lot size (minimum trade unit [MTU]) to facilitate order execution. We document changes in market quality associated with the reduction of the MTU to one share on the Italian stock exchange, the Borsa Italiana. We observe a substantial improvement in liquidity, with an average decrease in the relative spread of 10.2%, and more significant improvements for those firms for which the MTU constraint was more binding. We also show that the improvement in liquidity is mainly driven by a reduction in adverse selection; that informational efficiency is not significantly affected; and there is an increase in retail trading. We interpret our findings in light of a model of asymmetric information in which the MTU affects traders’ choice of order size.     

An exploratory inquiry into destination risk perceptions and risk reduction strategies of first time vs. repeat visitors to a highly volatile destination

The paper examines the relationships between first-time vs. repeat visitors to a highly volatile destination in terms of destination risk perceptions, risk reduction strategies and motivation for the visit. The exploratory research question centers on possible differences in tourist behavioral profiles associated with their decision to visit a foreign destination again. Set in Israel, a highly volatile tourist destination, researchers interviewed 760 international tourists using a questionnaire classifying them as either first-time or repeat visitors. Discriminant analysis revealed that first-time visitors were characterized by human-induced risk, socio-psychological risk, food safety and weather risk. In contrast, repeat visitors were associated with the destination risk factors of financial risk, service quality risk, natural disasters and car accidents. First-time vs. repeat visitors were also compared and contrasted in terms of risk reduction strategies such as consulting with people who had previously visited specific destinations and gathering information from travel agents. Differences between first-time and repeat visitors were also found regarding motivations for the visit. Similar analyses were conducted on the three sub-groups of repeat visitors, classified in terms of number of visits.     

Operationalising a resilience approach to adapting an urban delta to uncertain climate changes

Climate change may pose considerable challenges to coastal cities, particularly in low-lying urban deltas. Impacts are, however, associated with substantial uncertainties. This paper studies an uncertainty-robust adaptation strategy: strengthening the resilience of the impacted system. This approach is operationalised for the city of Rotterdam, using literature study, interviews, and a workshop. Potential impacts have been explored using national climate statistics and scenarios and a set of ‘wildcards’ (imaginable surprises). Sea level rise, particularly in combination with storm surge, and enduring heat and drought are the most relevant potential stresses in the area. These can lead to damage, loss of image, and societal disruption. Unclear responsibilities enhance disruption. ‘Resilience principles’ made the concept of resilience sufficiently operational for local actors to explore policy options. Useful principles for urban resilience include: homeostasis, omnivory, high flux, flatness, buffering, redundancy, foresight and preparedness/planning, compartmentalisation, and flexible planning/design. A resilience approach makes the system less prone to disturbances, enables quick and flexible responses, and is better capable of dealing with surprises than traditional predictive approaches. Local actors frame resilience as a flexible approach to adaptation that would be more suitable and tailored to local situations than rigid top-down regulations. In addition to a change in policy, it would require a more pro-active mentality among the population.     

Societal embedding and product creation management

Societal embedding of new products - that is, their integration in relevant industries and markets, their admissibility with regard to regulation and standards, and their acceptance by the public - is a challenge. A management approach is developed based on our case studies in the biotechnology sector and on recent innovation literature. Tools are presented to map internal and external alignments. Learning processes, in interaction with societal actors, overcome the dilemmas or at least make them manageable.     

Partial identification using random set theory

This paper illustrates how the use of random set theory can benefit partial identification analysis. We revisit the origins of Manski’s work in partial identification (e.g., [Manski, 1989] and [Manski, 1990]) focusing our discussion on identification of probability distributions and conditional expectations in the presence of selectively observed data, statistical independence and mean independence assumptions, and shape restrictions. We show that the use of the Choquet capacity functional and the Aumann expectation of a properly defined random set can simplify and extend previous results in the literature. We pay special attention to explaining how the relevant random set needs to be constructed, depending on the econometric framework at hand. We also discuss limitations in the applicability of specific tools of random set theory to partial identification analysis.