Partial identification using random set theory

This paper illustrates how the use of random set theory can benefit partial identification analysis. We revisit the origins of Manski’s work in partial identification (e.g., [Manski, 1989] and [Manski, 1990]) focusing our discussion on identification of probability distributions and conditional expectations in the presence of selectively observed data, statistical independence and mean independence assumptions, and shape restrictions. We show that the use of the Choquet capacity functional and the Aumann expectation of a properly defined random set can simplify and extend previous results in the literature. We pay special attention to explaining how the relevant random set needs to be constructed, depending on the econometric framework at hand. We also discuss limitations in the applicability of specific tools of random set theory to partial identification analysis.     

Workers with Disabilities: Exploring the Hiring Intentions of Nonprofit and For-profit Employers

Using the Theory of Planned Behavior as a conceptual framework, focus groups were held with nonprofit and for-profit employers in order to examine behavioral intentions to hire workers with disabilities. Content analysis revealed the following main themes: (1) For-profit hiring strategies were driven by a mission to sell a product or service; (2) Nonprofit hiring strategies were driven by a mission to serve the community; (3) Forprofit hiring and nonprofit hiring were impacted by the economy; (4) Although driven to have diverse workforces, the number of workers with disabilities was largely unknown; and (5) Employer attitudes mattered and impacted job opportunities for people with disabilities. Implications of this qualitative study highlight the utility of the Theory of Planned Behavior and the role that nonprofit managers and leaders may play in improving employment opportunities for individuals with disabilities.     

Utility and economics

Summary Although utility has been the central concept in economics, economists have paid relatively little attention to its measurement. Generally, utility is measured indirectly via the revealed preference approach. We discuss problems with this approach and next introduce alternative direct measurement methods. The direct measurement methods are seen to spawn a so-called theory of preference formation, which explains differences in utility functions of different individuals. The similarities of this theory with related theories in sociology and psychology, and various sorts of empirical evidence, are reviewed. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for economic theories.This is a slightly adapted version of my inaugural address at Tilburg University. I thank Tom Wansbeek for his helpful comments.     

The Structure of Indonesian Manufacturing Industry: An Input-Output Approach∗

The paper examines the structure of Indonesia's manufacturing sector, using data from the 1980 input-output tables., and supporting data from various industrial surveys and national accounts. An input-output analysis of sectoral linkages and factor demand (labour, proxies for skill and capital, imports) is used to derive implications for growth and employment of two contrasting industrial development strategies — a labour-intensive strategy and a more capital-intensive strategy fostering basic industries. It is argued that a labour-intensive, resource-based, and export-oriented strategy combined with selective import substitution is most likely to achieve the stated development goals of the Indonesian government.

     

Capital Utilisation in Indonesian Medium and Large Scale Manufacturing∗

This article presents the main results of a survey of the utilisation of existing productive capacity in the Indonesian manufacturing sector. It was found that although prevailing levels of capital utilisation in Indonesian manufacturing do not appear to be out of line with levels observed in other developing countries, there is scope for improvement in some sectors. The paper suggests some policy reforms which would improve the competitive environment for Indonesian manufacturing and increase the price ratio of capital to labour, thus promoting more intensive capital utilisation in the manufacturing sector.

     

Illegal but ethical: an inquiry into the roots of illegal corporate behaviour in Russia

This paper examines the perceptions of Russian executives toward the relationship between legal and ethical conduct. The focus is on questions of tax evasion attitudes and corporate illegal behavior. Forty Russian managers and entrepreneurs from a variety of organizations were interviewed. Their actions are aimed at gaining corporate income and profit from operations through hiding corporate activity from state and local authorities in a context where these authorities levy excessive taxes and other types of payment from businesses. Tax evasion methods are presented and analyzed along with other varieties of illegal corporate behavior. The research results show that executives believe business could not perform in a completely legal way under Russia's existing conditions. Illegal performance is thus viewed as legitimate and ethical.     

Investment Spikes in Dutch Greenhouse Horticulture

The presence of investment cycles demonstrates the long‐run policy of firms investing in particular periods (investment spikes) with lower or zero investment levels in between, which contradicts the smooth pattern predicted by a convex adjustment model. This paper investigates the spells between investment spikes in a discrete‐time proportional hazard framework to estimate the probability of observing lumpy investment and factors underlying lumpy and intermittent patterns of investment. Duration models were estimated on two datasets: on an unbalanced panel and on average data of 10 ‘firm size’ groups of Dutch greenhouse firms over the period 1975–1999. Two specifications of the model were estimated: one includes only theoretically grounded variables, and the other specification is extended by empirically grounded variables. Theoretically based models can explain the occurrence of investment spikes. Both specifications of model show an investment cycle of six years. This is also confirmed for the average firm, which exhibits a higher hazard ratio in the 6th, 12–13th and 21st years of duration.     

Rationalising terror‐related risks: the case of Israeli tourists in Sinai

Research into tourist reactions to terror requires qualitative studies that provide insight into the affective and cognitive processes that tourists experience when facing terror‐related risks. The study responds to this need by focusing on Israeli tourists who voluntarily travelled to the terror‐threatened destination of Sinai, Egypt. Applying ethnographic methods, the study identifies two major rationalisations tourists used to reduce their perceived risk: (i) inward‐oriented rationalisations that reduce the perceived risk of the destination by stressing the safety within it; and (ii) outward‐oriented rationalisations that reduce the perceived risk of the destination by emphasising the terror‐related risks, which exist elsewhere. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sustainable natural resource use in rural China: Recent trends and policies

In this paper we provide an overview of recent trends in the availability and quality of land and water resources in rural China, and examine the common presumption that rural resources are rapidly degrading in China. Data based on consistent definitions and measurement methods that have recently become available are used to that end. In addition, we analyse the impact of new policy initiatives to introduce market-based instruments and new institutions to address land degradation and water scarcity problems.We find that the decline in cultivated area has accelerated in the beginning of the new century. Ecological recovery programs, not urbanization and industrialization, are the major factors causing this decline. Ecological recovery programs are also a major force behind the increase in forest land area and the reduction of water erosion. Modest successes can be observed in the protection of wetlands and (until the mid-1980s) for the average quality of cultivated land. On the other hand, degradation of natural grassland and wind erosion have become much more severe in recent decades.In northern China, particularly in the 3-H (Hai and Luan, Huai and Huang) river basins, the availability of water has tightened. Groundwater tables have fallen considerably in the Hai river basin, because farmers increasingly rely on groundwater for irrigation. Evidence on other parts of northern China is mixed. Pollution of surface water is getting worse since the beginning of the 1990s in two major lakes in southern China and until recently in the rivers in northern China. Water quality problems in the larger rivers in southern China are less severe and getting less. These problems are to a large extent caused by agriculture-based non-point source pollution, especially in the major lakes and reservoirs.The sloping land conversion program, water pricing, and the establishment of water user associations and payments for environmental service projects are used as cases to examine the introduction of market-based instruments and new institutions. We argue that less government interference in the implementation of these instruments and institutions is likely to enhance ecological as well the economic benefits. Moreover, supportive measures to improve the functioning of land and labor markets are usually needed to ensure the sustainability of the impact of interventions.