Organizational Structure and Managerial Decisions

We investigate how the organizational structure of a firm influences the decision making of its top management. Different organizational structures lead information to be processed in different ways by the individual decision makers, potentially creating an informational cascade within the organization. We analyze two organizational structures: the first inducing sequential information processing, the second inducing batch information processing. In particular, we characterize the optimal organizational structure using the signal precision of the top manager, i.e., the value of his private information.     

International market selection strategies of manufacturing and services firms

This paper discusses the entrepreneurial landscape in Africa and locates a new generation of African entrepreneurs and their business networks within it. Unlike others in that landscape (i.e. micro- or small-scale informal sector vendors, and traditional or multinational large-scale formal sector firms), the ‘new generation’ entrepreneurs are business globalists who organized a system of business enterprise networks consisting of national, regional, and pan-African organizations. The study analyses interview data from 57 men and women network members from 10 countries (Botswana, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Senegal, South Africa, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe). Some defining characteristics of these entrepreneurs are interactive social and business relationships, use of modern management methods and information technology, trust among fellow members, transparent business practices, advocacy on behalf of the private sector, and commitment to increasing intra-African commerce. Their mission is to improve the climate for private sector business in Africa and to promote regional economic integration. They pursue cross-national commercial ventures, maintain official observer status at established regional economic organizations, sign memoranda of understanding with multilateral agencies, establish venture capital funds, and help to change government policies. The paper identifies characteristics of the ‘new generation’ entrepreneurs, evaluates goals and achievements of their networks, and concludes that despite limitations, these entrepreneurs and their organizations have created intra- and cross-national networks that strengthen private-sector-led economic growth in Africa.     

Integrating expected coverage and local reliability for emergency medical services location problems

Daskin's MEXCLP model [Daskin M. A maximum expected covering location model: formulation, properties, and heuristic solution. Transportation Science 1983;17:48-70] was one of the first efforts to capture the stochastic nature of emergency medical services (EMS) location problems within a mixed-integer formulation. With their subsequent introduction of MALP, ReVelle and Hogan [The maximum availability location problem. Transportation Science 1989;23:192-200] offered two key advances, local vehicle busyness estimates and the α-reliability objective. While these constructs have influenced many subsequent EMS location models, they have been subjected to relatively little empirical analysis. To address this, we introduce the LR-MEXCLP, a hybrid model combining the local busyness estimates of MALP with the maximum coverage objective of MEXCLP. We then solve a series of problems with all three models and employ simulation to estimate aggregate service levels. We find that LR-MEXCLP leads to modest but consistent service gains over both MALP and MEXCLP. These results support the merits of local busyness estimates, but they also suggest that the α-reliability objective may be inappropriate when seeking to maximize aggregate system response capabilities. More generally, our research underscores the utility of (a) linking modeling assumptions and goals with real-world application contexts, and (b) employing simulation or other techniques to validate theoretical results.     

顺流而动并非上策

正在市场环境瞬息万变的今天,为改变而改变一定是最优选择么?怎样调整才能既保留公司核心竞争力,又开拓新的领域?商海行舟,不进则退。不变革便衰败,只有挣脱束缚自己的枷锁才能更好地前行。当今世界日新月异,组织必须与时俱进以保证利润和市场份额的观念已深入人心,并被奉为金句。从百事达(Blockbuster)到柯达,从纸质报业到投币电话制造商,更给了我们"不变则死"的惨痛教训。各行各业也都有公司为自己的因循守旧埋了单。     

THE IRREDUCIBLE ROLE OF DERIVED MARGINAL UTILITY IN DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC PROGRAMMING

Abstract. Using the important case of multi-period investing between a safe asset with a low mean return and an equity basket with a higher total return but a riskier one, this analysis demonstrates that the relevant stochastic programming involves irreducibly recursive variational relations. The "direct" Lagrange-Chow procedure is related to the derivatives of the Bellman "indirect"'algorithms and shown to require essentially the same computations save only for standard integrations or taking of first derivatives. To demonstrate that the comparison is unchanged when a vector of control variables must be optimized in a many-period stochastic scenario, the problem is solved for a rentier to both decide how much to save in each period and how much to put of each period's investment into risky securities.     

The Effect of Accounting Restatements on Earnings Revisions and the Estimated Cost of Capital

This paper examines the effect of accounting restatements on a firm's cost of equity capital. We show that, on average, accounting restatements lead to both decreases in expected future earnings and increases in the firm's cost of equity capital. Depending on the model used, relative percentage increases in the cost of equity capital average between 7 and 19% in the month immediately following a restatement. The relative increase in the cost of capital dissipates as time passes and after controlling for analyst forecast biases, but continues to average between 6 and 15% in the most conservative setting. We also show that restatements initiated by auditors are associated with the largest increase in the cost of capital, and that firms with greater leverage experience greater increases in their cost of capital. Overall, our evidence is consistent with accounting restatements lowering the perceived earnings quality of the firm and increasing investors' required rates of return.     

An equilibrium analysis of information aggregation and fluctuations in markets with discrete decisions

This paper shows how the interaction between decentralized information gathering and discreteness of investment decisions at the individual level can generate random fluctuations in aggregate investment that involve occasionally large allocation errors. This interaction is illustrated in a model in which private information is costly to acquire and prices reveal information. The unique rational expectations equilibrium outcome of the model is shown to always be noisy and characterized by investment levels which may be high simply because uninformed investors are buying under the impression that the high price is a signal of good investment opportunities.     

Impact of Regional Economic Integration in East Asia

The current study evaluates the economy wide impact of trade liberalization in the ASEAN region along with China, Japan and Korea (ASEAN + 3) by the year 2020 using the GTAP framework. The study also assesses the environmental impact of the trade liberalization in the region focusing on the seven environmental indicators (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, BOD, COD, Suspended Solid and Industrial Waste). The result shows that the countries under agreement (ASEAN + 3) will benefit with increased output, expansion of trade and welfare due to trade reforms. Further, the integration will increase the global welfare, although the regions not under agreement in the world will show a decline in output growth. Vietnam will be gaining with the highest output growth among the ASEAN region; however, the impact on the environment would not be favourable. The environmental impact reveals a mixed outcome for participating countries under the agreement. The paper provides useful insight in pursuing greater trade liberalization among the countries under the study.     

Aid, policy and growth in post-conflict societies

Countries emerging from civil war attract both aid and policy advice. This paper provides the first systematic empirical analysis of aid and policy reform in the post-conflict growth process. It is based on a comprehensive data set of large civil wars, and covers 17 societies that were in their first decade of post-conflict economic recovery. We first investigate whether the absorptive capacity for aid is systematically different in post-conflict countries. We find that during the first 3 post-conflict years absorptive capacity is no greater than normal, but that in the rest of the first decade it is approximately double its normal level. Thus, ideally, aid should phase in during the decade. Historically, aid has not, on average, been higher in post-conflict societies, and indeed it has tended to taper out over the course of the decade. We then investigate whether the contribution of policy to growth is systematically different in post-conflict countries, and in particular, whether particular components of policy are differentially important. For this we use the World Bank policy rating database. We find that growth is more sensitive to policy in post-conflict societies. Comparing the efficacy of different policies, we find that social policies are differentially important relative to macroeconomic policies. However, historically, this does not appear to have been how policy reform has been prioritized in post-conflict societies.