Real Estate for the Long Term: The Effect of Return Predictability on Long-Horizon Allocations

We examine how the predictability of real estate returns affects the risk of, and optimal allocations to, real estate for investors of differing investment horizons. Returns to direct real estate are mean reverting, and risk decreases with horizon. This is driven by a tendency for property transaction prices to overshoot inflation. Mean reversion in real estate returns is weaker than that of equities, resulting in real estate having similar risk to equities for long-term investors. However, optimal portfolios have large allocations to direct real estate at all horizons, and the allocation increases with horizon. Finally, we find that real estate investment trusts are a redundant asset class for investors with access to direct real estate as an asset class, but they do have a role in optimal allocations when direct property investment is not feasible.     

The pricing of real estate investment trust initial public offerings

This paper examines the pricing of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Unlike standard corporations, evidence suggests that REIT IPOs are correctly priced in the initial market. Significant negative initial-day return for mortgage REITs is found to be a function of using the bid price to calculate returns for those securities, which trade initially over the counter (OTC). If the bid-ask average or the ask price is used in calculating returns, any apparent overpricing disappears. Additionally, we find that once transactions costs are considered, an investor is better off purchasing a REIT on the offering.     

Evidence of Forward-Looking Loan Loss Provisioning with Credit Market Information

Our paper makes a fundamental contribution by studying loan loss provisioning over the credit cycle as three distinct phases. Looking at the three distinct phases of the financial crisis – the pre-crisis period, crisis period, and post-crisis period – is important as loan loss provisioning is driven by different factors in each, in part due to extensive shifts in (or in the application of) regulatory rule. Controlling for credit market information using data from the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Surveys (SLOOS) we extend the work of previous studies of forward-looking loan loss provisions using the delayed expected loss recognition approach. We contribute to the growing literature on forward-looking loan loss provisioning and early in the cycle loss recognition by incorporating a broader range of available credit information and explicitly controlling for structural breaks in the sample corresponding to the financial crisis.     

Islam’s Gift: An Economy of Spiritual Development

According to the standard narrative, economics is an objective and scientific study of universal laws applicable to economic affairs of modern societies. After a brief introduction, the second section of the article presents a counter‐narrative that disputes this claim, and provides an alternative point of view that situates modern economics within its European historical, political, and social context. We briefly discuss why the conventional methodology of modern economics makes false claims to objectivity and universality. The third section provides an alternative methodology that is based on the recognition that human behavior is inherently and unavoidably normative, and any study of human beings and societies must take this into account. The fourth section of the article brings out the norms concealed within the foundations of modern economics, since the avowed methodology does not permit explicit and open expression of these norms. The fifth section describes Islamic views that describe the normative ideals for our personal and social lives. In particular, Islam aims at the development of the potential for excellence that every human being is born with. It does not aim at accumulation of wealth and material possessions. Nor does it aim at achievement of happiness through the maximization of pleasure achieved by consumption. The sixth section describes the transformational strategies required for spiritual progress in different dimensions of our human existence. The seventh section describes some of the institutional structures required in the economic realm to assist in the achievement of the transformation towards the normative ideals. The final section explains how we should use our unique and precious lives to aim for higher goals than mere consumption of goods and acquisition of wealth.     

Dynamic linkages between tourism transportation expenditures,carbon dioxide emission,energy consumption and growth factors: evidence from the transition economies

Tourism transport profoundly affects economic growth, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. This study is an attempt to examine the impact of international tourism transportation expenditures, energy demand, foreign direct investment inflows, trade openness and urban population on carbon dioxide emission and per capita income for the panel of 11 transition Economies, over the period of 1995–2013. The results show that per capita income escalates the carbon dioxide emission (CO₂), which deteriorates the natural environment. International tourism receipts and international tourism expenditures for travel items are associated with the intensifying CO₂ emission and per capita income in the region. The study confirmed the energy-led emissions, FDI-led emissions, FDI-led growth, income-led emissions, income-led energy demand, trade-led growth and trade-led energy demand. The causality results further substantiate the the tourism-led growth and FDI hypothesis in the region. Finally, the variance decomposition analysis confirmed the following results, that is, (i) per capita income is the contributor that least influences CO₂ emissions, (ii) urban population influences per capita income and (iii) international tourism transportation expenditures will influence CO₂ emissions and per capita income for the next 10-year period.     

Aggregate insider trading: Contrarian beliefs or superior information?

We decompose realized market returns into expected return, unexpected cash-flow news and unexpected discount rate news to test the relation between aggregate market returns and aggregate insider trading. We find that (1) the predictive ability of aggregate insider trading is much stronger than what was reported in earlier studies, (2) aggregate insider trading is strongly related to unexpected cash-flow news, (3) market expectations do not cause insider trading contrary to what others have documented, and (4) aggregate insider trading in firms with high information uncertainty is more likely to be associated with contrarian investment strategy. These results strongly suggest that the predictive ability of aggregate insider trading is because of insider’s ability to predict future cash-flow news rather than from adopting a contrarian investment strategy. These results hold even after we control for non-informative trades and information uncertainty.     

A comparative study of driving performance in metropolitan regions using large-scale vehicle trajectory data: Implications for sustainable cities

Volatile driving, characterized by hard accelerations and braking, can contribute substantially to higher energy consumption, tailpipe emissions, and crash risks. Drivers’ decisions to maintain speed, accelerate, brake rapidly, or jerk their vehicle are largely constrained by their unique regional and metropolitan contexts. These contexts may be characterized by their geography, roadway structure, traffic management, driving population, etc. This study captures how people generally drive in a region using large-scale vehicle trajectory data, implying how energy is consumed and how emissions are produced in regional transportation systems. Specifically, driving performance in four U.S. metropolitan areas (Los Angeles, San Francisco, Sacramento, and Atlanta) is compared, taking advantage of large-scale behavioral data (78.7 million seconds of speed records), collected by in-vehicle global positioning systems (GPSs) as part of regional surveys. Comparative analysis shows significant regional differences in terms of volatile driving and time spent to accelerate, brake, and jerk the vehicle during daily trips. Correlates of higher volatility are also explored, e.g., battery electric vehicles show low volatility, as expected. This study proposes a novel way to compare regional driving performance by successfully turning GPS driving data into valuable knowledge that can be applied in practice by developing regional driving performance indices. The new indices can also be used to compare regional performance over time and to imply the levels of sustainability of regional transportation systems. This study contributes by proposing a way to extract useful information from large-scale driving data.     

Failures of the “Invisible Hand”

Despite many failures of the invisible hand both empirically and theoretically, it continues to be vigorously asserted and widely believed. We document the failures and explain why it continues to be asserted despite these failures.     

A Study of the Informal Interactions between Audit Committees and Internal Auditors in Australia

This paper finds evidence for the growing importance of informal interactions between the internal audit function and the audit committee (AC) in Australia – a relatively unexplored topic in the literature – using a survey of Chief Audit Executives (CAEs). It also describes the nature of these informal interactions. The most innovative elements of this paper are the findings that certain personal characteristics of CAEs, the specific knowledge and expertise of the AC chair, as well as some of the AC chair's personal characteristics are associated with the existence (and increase) of informal interactions.     

Management quality and the cost of debt: Does management matter to lenders?

This paper investigates the effect of organizational capital, typified by various management practices within a firm, on the cost of external debt financing. Using a sample of medium-sized manufacturing firms in the US, we find that better management practices enhance a firm’s external financing capacity by lowering the firm’s cost of bank loans. We do not find any evidence that the lower loan cost of a high-quality-management firm is associated with more restrictive non-price contract terms such as greater collateral requirements and stricter covenants. These results suggest that banks explicitly take into account the risk arising from poor management practices when pricing and designing debt contracts.