Alternative estimation methods for two-regime models: A mathematical programming approach

This paper suggests mathematical programming methods for estimating the parameters of piecewise regression models. Maximum likelihood estimation results in a non-convex optimization problem which is not continuously differentiable, and might even become discontinuous. To solve these difficulties we suggest two classes of methods. The first one consists of ‘scanning methods’, which are combinatorial in nature and therefore adequate for problems limited in size. The second class consists of ‘smoothing (or approximation) methods’, which can be used for larger problems. While scanning methods always find the global solution in a finite number of steps, smoothing methods are only guaranteed to find a local optimum. The paper ends with an application of the methods to the determination of export prices.     

Visioning 2035: The future of the higher education sector in the UK

The concept of ‘university’ has been around for centuries and yet the majority of British Universities have yet to reach their 50th birthday. The higher education sector has been through extensive change over a relatively short period of time and this is likely to continue in the future. This paper presents the results of a futures study focussed on the Higher Education sector in the UK in 10 and 25 years time. Following an extensive, broad ranging literature review covering business, education, futures, and socio-political texts and studies, a series of scenarios were developed for the future of the sector as a whole. This study differs from other studies in its field as it is does not focus on individual institutions, but rather at the environmental factors that are going to impact on the sector, setting out a range of scenarios within which institutions will need to shape their individual futures. Five scenarios are presented in this paper with their underlying driving factors, and their implications for the academic workforce being employed in the sector.     

Postgraduate research students: You are the future of the Academy

This paper explores the changing role of the university developed and changed over time, and how this is likely to change further in the next 25 years. By drawing on scenarios for the future of the HE sector in the UK in 2035, the article argues that postgraduate research students will be the key factor that sustains the future of the Academy as universities focus more and more attention on the teaching of ever increasing numbers of undergraduate students. The paper highlights the danger of a divide occurring between the idea of the university and the notion of the Academy in the future, and the essential role that research students will play in ensuring this divide remains bridged. The article argues that it is imperative for universities to expand their postgraduate research degree provision if the Academy is to continue in the future as the foundation to knowledge creation.     

The relative importance of project success dimensions

Traditionally, the success of a project is assessed using internal measures such as technical and operational goals, and meeting schedule and budget. More recently, it has been recognized that several other measures should be used to define project success. These measures reflect external effectiveness: the project's impact on its customers, and on the developing organization itself.
In our study of 110 defense projects performed by Israeli industry, we used a multidimensional approach to measure the success of defense projects. Based on previous studies, we defined four dimensions of success: meeting design goals ; benefits to the customer ; benefits to the developing organization ; and benefits to the defense and national infrastructure . For each project, we asked three different stakeholders (the customer, the developing organization, and the coordinating office within the Ministry of Defense) for their views on the relative importance of these dimensions of success. Analysis of the data revealed that the dimension benefits to the customer is by far the most important success dimension. The second in importance is meeting design goals . The other two dimensions are relatively unimportant.     

Mobilizing non-conventional budgetary resources in Asia in the 21st century

The 21st century will be characterized by the curtailment of tax policy autonomy and high locational elasticities for economic activities. Resource mobilization tasks for Asian governments will therefore be far more complex. With respect to traditional taxes, base broadening and modernization of tax administration will have to be primary instruments of raising additional revenue rather than rate increases.The paper suggests that Asian countries will need to substantially enhance their capacity to benefit from innovative instruments of resource mobilization. These include public asset restructuring, treasury management, and revenue from creation of property rights, regulatory levies and more effective use of cost recovery and user charges. Resource mobilization and delivery of public services will have to be increasingly linked. An Asia wide tax forum to address common concerns, such as tax avoidance will need to be considered.     

USING ELICITED CHOICE PROBABILITIES TO ESTIMATE RANDOM UTILITY MODELS: PREFERENCES FOR ELECTRICITY RELIABILITY*

When choice data are not available, researchers studying preferences sometimes ask respondents to state the actions they would choose in choice scenarios. Data on stated choices are then used to estimate random utility models, as if they are data on actual choices. Stated and actual choices may differ because researchers typically provide respondents less information than they would have in actuality. Elicitation of choice probabilities overcomes this problem by permitting respondents to express uncertainty about behavior. This article shows how to use elicited choice probabilities to estimate random utility models and reports estimates of preferences for electricity reliability.     

Regulation of Duopoly: Managed Competition vs Regulated Monopolies

This paper discusses the regulation of oligopolistic differentiated-product industries. The regulator can control prices and impose quantity restrictions, but cannot control the quality choices of the firms. We inquire about the optimal choice of regulatory regime—whether and under what conditions managed competition or segmentation of the market between regulated monopolies achieves better results. In the spatial duopoly model analyzed here, unhindered competition generally results in an inefficient allocation. When the regulator knows the technologies, optimal managed competition results in distortions of the quality choice, but an optimal regulated-monopolies regime achieves the first best outcome. When the regulator is uncertain about the technologies, neither of these methods yields the first-best outcome. The regulated-monopolies regime still tends to produce better quality choices, but managed competition tends to be more effective at extracting rents from the firms. The overall comparison depends on some finer details of the environment.