Stock returns and economic activity: the UK case

This paper investigates the relationships between real stock returns and a number of financial and economic variables for the UK economy for the period 1980 to 1994. We begin by discussing a theoretical model proposed by Balvers et al. and then re-estimate for the UK what may be regarded as an application of that model by Fama applied to the US market. This reproduces Fama's main results. For the UK we than suggest a slightly, different application of the Balvers model, the most important feature of which is the use of expectational macro-economic variables instead of Fama's use of leading values of industrial production. We then go on to investigate the unit root properties of the data and show that much of the data is indeed characterized by the presence of unit root non stationarity In the light of this, we propose an application of the Phillips-Loretan error-correction model and show that this provides a plausible relationship between real stock returns and most of the financial and economic variables.     

Integral consciousness through the global lens: The great shift in the presiding technology of consciousness

It is now more evident that humanity is in the midst of a profound evolutionary shift in all dimensions of our cultural life and in our human condition. One symptom of this great shift is the increasing sense of “crisis” as our older dysfunctional forms of life and mind face a certain meltdown in this metamorphesis. Ironically, our entrenched patterns of “minding” and consciousness feed the crisis and eclipse the depth of the real crisis. The shift we now face has long been emerging since the dawn of civilizations, and is nothing less than an evolutionary shift, a maturation of our human form and technology of consciousness. Indeed, the essence of the global crises turns essentially on this “crisis” in consciousness—a radical dimensional shift in our rational capacities and mind processing powers. And this shift has been long seen and anticipated in our hitherto dormant global wisdom tradition through the ages. This essay suggests that our future sustainability now turns on bringing forth this mindshift from egomental patterns to more mature holistic, integral and dialogical patterns of being human through our dilated global lens.     

An efficient variant of the product and ratio estimators

Abstract  This article presents a variant of the usual ratio and product methods of estimation, with the intention 10 improve their efficiency. The first order large sample approximations to the bias and the mean square error of the proposed estimator are obtained and compared with those of the well-known methods (simple expansion, ratio, product, difference and linear regression methods). For a special case, the accuracy of the first order approximation (terms up to the order n-¹ ) is examined by including terms upto the order n^-2 . With suitable choice of a design parameter, the proposed estimator turns out to be superior to the three methods mentioned first. The relation to the other two methods is examined; if the design parameter can be chosen near to the optimal value, the proposed method is seen to be approximately as efficient as the linear regression estimator. Finally some extensions are indicated.     

A Regional Analysis of Technical Change in Australian Manufacturing

Manufacturing is an important sector to many Australian regional areas. Technical change is important to the economic performance of manufacturing and improvements in competitive advantage. In this paper, technical change in manufacturing is estimated for each of the Australian States using a cointegration framework, for the period 1954–55 to 1995–96. Regional differences in technical change are identified.     

Trade,Growth, and Increasing Returns to Infrastructure: The Role of the Sophisticated Monopolist*

Equilibrium in international trade with increasing returns in infrastructure depends on whether the infrastructure provider is “naïve” or sophisticated. A monopolist produces infrastructure under decreasing cost using fixed equipment. Unlike similar work, we derive a unique closed‐economy equilibrium. In a small open economy, with “naïve” infrastructure provider(s), multiple equilibria obtain. The industrial export potential of the economy depends on unexhausted economies of scale, and equilibria are possible where manufactures are exported despite an autarky price higher than the world price. With a sophisticated infrastructure provider, even an open economy has a unique equilibrium, which, at least as long as economies of scale are unexhausted, also involves more industrialization than the “naïve” equilibria. Access to the unlimited world market is necessary for significant industrialization but is not sufficient: one may also require “Schumpeterian” entrepreneurs, monopolists with a panoramic vision of the economy and of their catalytic role in it.     

THEORY AND PRACTICE OF DECENTRALIZED PLANNING PROCEDURES

Abstract. The paper surveys the theory of decentralized planning procedures, dealing with price-guided, quantity-guided and mixed procedures. Informational and incentive properties of the various procedures are dealt with, as is the problem of public goods. The practice of planning in the USSR, Hungary and India is also discussed.     

The water footprints of Morocco and the Netherlands: Global water use as a result of domestic consumption of agricultural commodities

The volume of international trade in agricultural commodities is increasing faster than the global volume of production, which is an indicator of growing international dependencies in the area of food supply. Although less obvious, it also implies growing international dependencies in the field of water supply. By importing food, countries also import water in virtual form. The aim of the paper is to assess the water footprints of Morocco, a semi-arid/arid country, and the Netherlands, a humid country. The water footprint of a country is defined as the volume of water used for the production of the goods and services consumed by the inhabitants of the country. The internal water footprint is the volume of water used from domestic water resources; the external water footprint is the volume of water used in other countries to produce goods and services imported and consumed by the inhabitants of the country. The study shows that both Morocco and the Netherlands import more water in virtual form (in the form of water-intensive agricultural commodities) than they export, which makes them dependent on water resources elsewhere in the world. The water footprint calculations show that Morocco depends for 14% on water resources outside its own borders, while the Netherlands depend on foreign water resources for 95%. It is shown that international trade can result in global water saving when a water-intensive commodity is traded from an area where it is produced with high water productivity to an area with lower water productivity. If Morocco had to domestically produce the products that are now imported from the Netherlands, it would require 780 million m³/year. However, the imported products from the Netherlands were actually produced with only 140 million m³/year, which implies a global water saving of 640 million m³/year.     

用Cyanex921-甲苯萃取分离Pt,Pd和Rh--一种用于从废催化剂中回收铂族金属的方法

图１铂族金属萃取率与HCl浓度的关系（有机相：７５mmol·L－１Cyanex９２１；水相：Rh（Ⅲ）、Pt（Ⅳ）和Pd（Ⅱ）浓度均为１mmol·L－１；振荡时间：１０min）１前言铂族金属广泛地应用于催化反应、电子器件、航空航天等领域，在汽车尾气净化催化剂中的应用也与日俱增。铂族金属价格高，需求量大，促使人们从低品位矿和废催化剂中回收它们。由于铂族金属在氯化物水溶液中的化学性质极其相似犤１犦，分离和提纯它们是十分困难的，有必要开发一种更为有效的分离与提取方法。关于铂族金属的提取分离，许多作者［２～７］早有研究，也有许…