Testing Prediction Performance of Poverty Models: Empirical Evidence from Uganda

This paper examines the performance of a method of predicting poverty rates. Because most developing countries cannot justify the expense of frequent household budget surveys, additional low‐cost methods have been developed and used. The prediction method is based on a model linking the proportion of poor households to suitable explanatory variables (consumption proxies). These consumption proxies are variables that can be collected at much lower cost through smaller annual surveys. Several applications have shown that such models can produce poverty estimates with confidence intervals of a similar magnitude to the poverty estimates from the household budget surveys. There is, however, limited evidence of how well the methods perform out‐of‐sample. A series of seven household budget surveys conducted in Uganda in the period 1993–2005 allows us to test the prediction performance of the model. We test the poverty models by using data from one survey to predict the proportion of poor households in other surveys, and vice versa. The results are encouraging, as all models predict similar poverty trends. Although in most cases the predictions are precise, sometimes they differ significantly from the poverty level estimated from the survey directly.     

Determinants of discounts in equity rights issues: An international comparison

Equity rights offerings are the predominant SEO flotation method in many European and Asian countries. Several previous studies focus on rights offerings, but these studies often measure solely the announcement effects of these offerings and pay little attention to the discount. This study seeks to close this gap, explain the discounts on such rights offerings, and determine the drivers of offering discounts with a focus on cultural effects regarding the level of uncertainty avoidance. Based on the existing literature, we develop several hypotheses and find supporting evidence for these hypotheses in our data. Our main finding is that the most important factors for explaining the discount on an equity rights offer are the level of uncertainty avoidance, the quality of a firm, and the level of uncertainty about firm value.     

Increasing the length of parents' birth-related leave: The effect on children's long-term educational outcomes

Investments in children are generally seen as investments in the future economy. In this study I focus on time investments in children as I investigate the long-term educational effects on children of increasing parents' birth-related leave from 14 to 20 weeks using a natural experiment from 1984 in Denmark. The causal effect of the reform is identified using regression discontinuity design to compare a population sample of children born shortly before and shortly after the reform took effect. Results indicate that increasing parents' access to birth-related leave has no measurable effect on children's long-term educational outcomes. Mothers' incomes and career opportunities are slightly positively affected by the reform.     

Demand estimation and consumer welfare in the banking industry

This paper estimates a structural demand model for commercial bank deposit services in order to measure the effects on consumers given dramatic changes in bank services throughout US branching deregulation in the 1990s. Following the discrete choice literature, consumer decisions are based on prices and bank characteristics. Consumers are found to respond to deposit rates, and to a lesser extent, to account fees, in choosing a depository institution. Moreover, consumers respond favorably to the branch staffing and geographic density, as well as to the bank’s age, size, and geographic diversification. Consumers in most markets experience a slight increase in welfare throughout the period.     

Overcoming the “recency trap” in customer relationship management

Purchase likelihood typically declines as the length of time since the customer’s previous purchase (“recency”) increases. As a result, firms face a “recency trap,” whereby recency increases for customers who do not purchase in a given period, making it even less likely they will purchase in the next period. Eventually the customer is effectively lost to the firm. We develop and illustrate a modeling approach to target a firm’s marketing efforts, keeping in mind the customer’s recency state. This requires an empirical model that predicts purchase likelihood as a function of recency and marketing, and a dynamic optimization that prescribes the most profitable way to target customers. In our application we find that customers’ purchase likelihoods as well as response to marketing depend on recency. These results are used to show that the targeting of email and direct mail should depend on the customer’s recency and that the optimal decision policy enables the average high recency customer, who currently is virtually worthless to the firm, to become profitable.     

Efficiency analysis of German electricity distribution utilities – non-parametric and parametric tests

This study applies non-parametric and parametric tests to assess the efficiency of electricity distribution companies in Germany. Traditional issues in electricity sector benchmarking are addressed, such as the role of scale effects and optimal utility size, as well as new evidence specific to the situation in Germany. Labour, capital, and peak load capacity are used as inputs, and units sold and the number of customers as output. The data cover 307 (out of 553) German electricity distribution utilities. A data envelopment analysis (DEA) is applied with constant returns to scale (CRS) as the main productivity analysis technique, whereas stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) with distance function is the verification method. The results suggest that returns to scale play but a minor role; only very small utilities have a significant cost advantage. Low customer density is found to affect the efficiency score significantly, in particular in the lower third of all observations. Surprisingly, East German utilities feature a higher average efficiency than their West German counterparts. The correlation tests imply a high coherence of the results.     

Benchmarking and firm heterogeneity: a latent class analysis for German electricity distribution companies

In January 2009, the German Federal Network Agency introduced incentive regulation for the electricity distribution sector based on results obtained from econometric and nonparametric benchmarking analysis. One main problem for the regulator in assigning the relative efficiency scores is unobserved firm-specific factors such as network and technological differences. Comparing the efficiency of different firms usually assumes that they operate under the same production technology, thus unobserved factors might be inappropriately understood as inefficiency. To avoid this type of misspecification in regulatory practice, estimation is carried out in two stages: in the first stage observations are classified into two categories according to the size of the network operators. Then separate analyses are conducted for each subgroup. This article shows how to disentangle the heterogeneity from inefficiency in one step, using a latent class model for stochastic frontiers. As the classification is not based on a priori sample separation criteria it delivers more robust, statistically significant, and testable results. Against this background, we analyze the level of technical efficiency of different subgroups from a sample of 200 regional and local German electricity distribution companies for a balanced panel data set (2001–2005). Testing the hypothesis if larger distributors operate under a different technology than smaller ones, we assess if a single step latent class model provides new insights to the use of benchmarking approaches within the incentive regulation schemes.