Agreeable bets with multiple priors

This paper considers a two-agent model of trade with multiple priors. Firstly, we characterize the existence of an agreeable bet on some event in terms of the set of priors. It is then shown that the existence of an agreeable bet on some event is a strictly stronger condition than the existence of an agreeable trade, whereas the two conditions are equivalent in the standard Bayesian framework. Secondly, we show that the two conditions are equivalent when the set of priors is the core of a convex capacity. These results are also related to the no trade theorems under asymmetric information.     

On the Cost Structure of the Japanese Property-Casualty Insurance Industry

This article tests economies of scale and economies of scope for the property‐casualty insurance companies in Japan. We fit a composite cost function to a set of Japanese firms over the period from 1980 to 1995 and employ an error components model. Our main findings are as follows. First, statistically significant economies of scale are observed in both Japanese firms and foreign firms operating in Japan. Second, economies of scope are also statistically significant for Japanese firms and most of the foreign insurers between the “third sector” products and the rest of the property‐casualty insurance lines.     

GREEKS FORMULAS FOR AN ASSET PRICE MODEL WITH GAMMA PROCESSES

Greeks formulas of Delta, Rho, Vega, and Gamma are derived in closed form for asset price dynamics described by gamma processes and Brownian motions time‐changed by a gamma process. The model considered here includes many well‐known models of practical interest, such as the variance gamma model and the Black–Scholes model. Our approach is based upon the Malliavin calculus for jump processes by making full use of a scaling property of gamma processes with respect to the Girsanov transform. The existence of their variance is investigated. Numerical results are provided to illustrate that the derived Greeks formulas have faster rate of convergence relative to the finite difference method.     

Post-restructuring performance in Japan

Peek and Rosengren (2005) showed that after the end of the bubble economy era in Japan, regulatory forbearance and perverse incentives allowed Japanese banks to engage extensively in “evergreening”. Inoue et al. (2008) also showed that, compared to out-of-court settlements in the United States, agreements on out-of-court restructuring are attained more easily in Japan. However, widespread forbearance by banks and affiliated companies in addressing the needs of distressed firms indicated a serious weakness of banks and affiliated companies in instituting discipline. This is the first empirical study to examine the performance of Japanese firms that experienced out-of-court restructuring in Japan from January 1990, when the bubble economy burst, to March 2005, when the Koizumi Cabinet declared the bad debt problems of major firms to be resolved. Our results show that important biases permitted deeply unprofitable firms to survive in Japan. This finding is similar to research by Hotchkiss (1995), who analyzed post-restructuring performance in the United States. We also find that out-of-court restructurings of troubled firms in Japan were less effective in improving profitability than restructurings under Chapter 11 in the United States. However, we find that restructurings associated with new capital injections and new outside management are more likely to lead to genuine improvement in financial performance.     

Endogenous timing in a mixed duopoly: price competition with managerial delegation

We introduce a managerial delegation contract into the mixed duopoly model and examine its influence on price setting in a mixed duopoly in the context of the endogenous‐timing problem. We obtain the result that owners of a public and a private firm prefer to delay the setting of the prices of their products as much as possible. Thus, in equilibrium, the firms choose their prices simultaneously in the latter stage of the game. This is in contrast to the findings of the entrepreneurial case, according to which firms choose prices simultaneously in the former stage. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of changes in Japanese consolidation policy on analyst forecast error

Our broad research objective is to investigate whether convergence towards international standards improves the decision usefulness of information. Recent changes in Japanese consolidated reporting practices to better align with international standards provide an excellent setting to investigate this research objective. Specifically, we examine the effect of changes in Japanese consolidation policy on financial analysts’ perceptions of the persistence of subsidiary earnings. Previous research provides evidence that, prior to the change in consolidation policy, consolidated financial information was not used efficiently in the Japanese capital market. Prior research finds a positive relation between subsidiary earnings and future stock returns in Japan, indicating that investors underestimate the persistence of subsidiary earnings. Consistent with prior research using stock returns, we find that financial analysts also underestimate the persistence of subsidiary earnings in Japan. We document a significant positive relation between subsidiary earnings and future forecast errors of consolidated earnings. However, following the changes in consolidation policy in Japan, we find that financial analysts no longer underestimate the persistence of subsidiary earnings. Changes in Japanese consolidation policy in conformance with international standards increase decision usefulness by improving the ability of financial analysts to predict overall firm performance. One limitation of our research design relates to the adoption of mandated accounting policy changes by all sample firms in the same calendar time. This makes it difficult to control for the impact of correlated omitted variables. While this concern can never be completely eliminated, we provide additional tests that examine sample partitions by firm size and industry. These additional tests support the primary findings that Japan’s efforts to converge consolidation rules with international standards have improved analysts’ consolidated earnings forecasts.     

Effects of the Reform of the Social Medical Insurance System in Japan

We estimate outpatient medical care demand functions and examine the effects of the 1997 reform of the medical insurance system. We focus on the issue of which persons have been most affected by the reform and on the extent to which price elasticities have changed since the reform. The estimation results show that the reform affected mainly dependants' demand for medical care, which implies that all members of the household shared the increase in the medical costs of the head of the household. Price elasticities ranged from −0.18 to −0.26 before the reform, and from −0.08 to −0.11 after the reform.
JEL Classification Numbers: C35, I10, I18.     

Financial Access and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

This study empirically analyzes the effects of financial access on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. By estimating panel data on thirty-seven countries from Sub-Saharan Africa between 2004 and 2012, we examine whether improved access to financial services has contributed to economic growth in this region. The empirical results clearly indicate that financial access has a statistically significant and robust effect on increasing economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa.