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31.
Pension Reform, Capital Markets and the Rate of Return 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Axel Börsch-Supan Florian Heiss Alexander Ludwig Joachim Winter 《The German Economic Review》2003,4(2):151-181
Abstract. This paper discusses the consequences of population aging and a fundamental pension reform – that is, a shift towards more pre‐funding – for capital markets in Germany. We use a stylized closed‐economy, overlapping‐generations model to compare the effects of the recent German pension reform with those of a more decisive reform that would freeze the current pay‐as‐you‐go contribution rate and thus result in a larger funded component of the pension system. We predict rates of return to capital under both reform scenarios over a long horizon, taking demographic projections as given. Our main finding is that the future decrease in the rate of return is much smaller than often claimed in the public debate. Our simulations show that the capital stock will decrease once the baby‐boom generations enter retirement, even if there were no fundamental pension reform. The corresponding decrease in the rate of return, the direct effect of population aging, is around 0.7 percentage points. While the capital market effects of the recent German pension reform are marginal, the rate of return to capital would decrease by an additional 0.5 percentage points under the more decisive reform proposal. 相似文献
32.
Axel J. Halbach 《Intereconomics》1994,29(2):98-102
The collapse of socialism and opening up of markets in the East has led to a significant structural change in direct investment behaviour on a worldwide scale. The trend is particularly evident in Germany's direct investment patterns over the past two years. While newly industrializing countries in Latin America and Asia continue to be attractive investment locations, the major losers are the less developed countries, especially in Africa. There is a good deal of evidence to suggest that the countries of Africa, with a small number of exceptions, are increasingly becoming pure recipients of development aid. 相似文献
33.
34.
Axel J. Halbach 《Intereconomics》1979,14(3):145-154
Taiwan is developing ever more perceptibly into what both Peking and Taipei consider it to be: a province of China, albeit a province sui generis—part of China and yet an independent state, enjoying world-wide recognition though denied diplomatic relations, a leading commercial power but without proper commercial treaties. The prosperity which has been generated in the island is an ever present temptation for the People's Republic. Is it tempting enough to provoke an appeal to arms? Or is Red China's perfectly legitimate interest directed primarily at the exchange of goods and technologies? 相似文献
35.
Felicitas Nowak‐Lehmann Axel Dreher Dierk Herzer Stephan Klasen Inmaculada Martínez‐Zarzoso 《The Canadian journal of economics》2012,45(1):288-313
Abstract. We analyze the relationship between per capita income and foreign aid. We employ annual data and five‐year averages and carefully examine the time‐series properties of the data. Panel estimations with dynamic feasible generalized least‐squares (DFGLS) show that aid generally has an insignificant or minute negative significant impact on per capita income (particularly in highly aid‐dependent countries). This holds true for countries with different levels of human development and income, as well as for different regions. We also find that aid has a small positive impact on investment, but a significant negative impact on domestic savings (crowding out) and the real exchange rate (appreciation). JEL classification: F35, O11, C23, C51 相似文献
36.
This paper analyzes timing issues on the German balancing power market. We focus the analysis on the length of the bidding
period, i.e. the length of the time period a supplier has to provide balancing power capacities, and the question of how far
before the beginning of a bidding period the auction should be carried out. We show that different load levels require different
plants for the optimal provision of balancing power. In a longer bidding period, the power plants that have the lowest average
cost in the bidding period are unlikely to be efficient in all hours of the bidding period. Hence, shortening bidding periods
can increase efficiency. Furthermore, we show that an early commitment on a power plant’s mode of operation (when uncertainty
about resulting spot prices is still relatively high) also reduces efficiency. This suggests that the auction should be held
relatively close to the beginning of the bidding period. Furthermore, we discuss some advantages of a liquid real time market. 相似文献
37.
This study uses a relative purchasing power parity (PPP) model based on price indexes (consumer, CPI or traded-goods price indexes, TPI), interest rate differentials, and a linear forecasting technique to determine the horizon over which such a model outperforms a random walk in forecasting the Yen/U.S. Dollar exchange rates out-of-sample. The results improve if one adjusts a simple CPI-based PPP-model by interest rate differentials, while the best results are obtained using a TPI-based PPP-model. For example, the TPI-based model, adjusted by interest rate differentials, is able to statistically significantly outperform the pure random walk starting at forecast horizons of 1 month. 相似文献
38.
We propose and empirically investigate a pricing model for convertible bonds based on Monte Carlo simulation. The method uses parametric representations of the early exercise decisions and consists of two stages. Pricing convertible bonds with the proposed Monte Carlo approach allows us to better capture both the dynamics of the underlying state variables and the rich set of real-world convertible bond specifications. Furthermore, using the simulation model proposed, we present an empirical pricing study of the US market, using 32 convertible bonds and 69 months of daily market prices. Our results do not confirm the evidence of previous studies that market prices of convertible bonds are on average lower than prices generated by a theoretical model. Similarly, our study is not supportive of a strong positive relationship between moneyness and mean pricing error, as argued in the literature. 相似文献
39.
Axel Jochem 《International Advances in Economic Research》1999,5(1):37-47
The best way to prevent hyperinflation when domestic prices are liberalized is to initiate the transition from a planned economy to a market economy with a currency reform. In the following period, moderate inflation and flexible exchange rates are suitable to facilitate relative price adjustments. Only after the bulk of alignments has been accomplished can a switch in the exchange rate regime be convenient. The nominal peg of a stable reference currency lowers the level and the variance of domestic inflation rates. The credibility of an exchange rate target may best be achieved by combining a currency board (objective sustainability) with a crawling peg (political sustainability). Price stability can be realized in the long run by reducing the annual depreciation rate in regular, preannounced steps. 相似文献
40.
Axel Johne 《Journal of Marketing Management》2013,29(3):291-301
When firms experience a faster pace of change in their markets and in the technology used they frequently have to turn to developing new products in order to safeguard their competitive position. This paper identifies possible formal organisation designs for developing new products and discusses a method for understanding the different ways in which firms actually undertake the detailed tasks involved. New avenues for further practically orientated research are identified. 相似文献