What to do if a dollar is not a dollar? The impact of inflation risk on production and risk management

An entrepreneur faces two types of risk: one from income generation, one from income spending. His income from firm profits is risky due to output price fluctuations and other risks. As a consumer, he is also exposed to inflation risk since he maximizes expected utility of real income. This article focuses on optimal production and risk management decisions of a risk‐averse entrepreneur jointly facing tradable output price risk and untradable inflation risk. Inflation risk applies multiplicatively to the entrepreneur's entire nominal income. Relative risk aversion and the risks' joint distribution determine the effect of introducing a futures market on production. For dependent risks, this effect may be negative if relative risk aversion is above one. Relative risk aversion and the joint distribution also determine optimal risk management with futures contracts where speculation on a real risk premium and cross hedging may be conflicting objectives. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:371–386, 2002     

Hybrid Choice Models: Progress and Challenges

We discuss the development of predictive choice models that go beyond the random utility model in its narrowest formulation. Such approaches incorporate several elements of cognitive process that have been identified as important to the choice process, including strong dependence on history and context, perception formation, and latent constraints. A flexible and practical hybrid choice model is presented that integrates many types of discrete choice modeling methods, draws on different types of data, and allows for flexible disturbances and explicit modeling of latent psychological explanatory variables, heterogeneity, and latent segmentation. Both progress and challenges related to the development of the hybrid choice model are presented.     

The impact of global factors on stock market movements in emerging market economies

Global factors are becoming increasingly important as a cause of international capital fl ows. It is nearly impossible for some countries to protect themselves from outside infl uences on their fi nancial markets. This paper investigates the extent to which various global factors such as stock market volatility, international liquidity and global interest rate levels impact on the effective fi nancial market exchange rates of selected emerging market economies. These results are compared with effects on the fi nancial market exchange rates of the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany.     

Social Media Analytics

In this contribution, we introduce “social media analytics” (SMA) as an emerging interdisciplinary research field that, in our view, will have a significant impact on social media-related future research from across different academic disciplines. Despite a number of challenges, we argue that SMA can provide other disciplines – including IS – with methodological foundations for research that focuses on social media. Furthermore, we believe that SMA can help IS research to develop decision-making or decision-aiding frameworks by tackling the issue of social media-related performance measurement, which has been challenging until now. Moreover, SMA can provide architectural designs and solution frameworks for new social media-based applications and information systems. Finally, we call for an interdisciplinary SMA research agenda as well as a significantly increased level of interdisciplinary research co-operation, which must aim to generate significant advancements in scientific methods for analyzing social media, as well as to answer research questions from across different disciplines.     

Multi-agent-based transport planning in the newspaper industry

In many cases of today's planning tasks, the synchronization of production and distribution is becoming increasingly important in order to minimize costs and to maximize customer satisfaction. This is especially the case if transport schedules are closely connected to production schedules, as it is in the newspaper industry—where perishable goods are distributed immediately after production. In order to achieve the above mentioned competing objectives, a special kind of vehicle routing problem, the vehicle routing problem with time windows and cluster-dependent tour starts (VRPTWCD), has to be solved. Moreover, the varying print and post-processing schedules due to unknown editorial deadlines lead to the need for a dynamic online control of the newspaper production and distribution process. In this contribution, the outlined dynamic transport problem is solved online under consideration of unforeseen changes in production schedules. The solution concept is based on a multi-agent system consisting of, amongst others, several Edition and Vehicle Agents. This system is exemplarily applied to a real life application case of one of the largest German newspaper companies. It is shown that a static (centralized) optimization of the underlying problem would even lead to worse results in comparison to the current situation and that the appliance of the multi-agent system is suitable in the newspaper industry.     

External economic policy and development policy

Since 1970 the world economy has gone through a series of grave crises which have stimulated an intensive discussion about the economic and political relations between industrialized and developing countries. As seen from the Federal Republic of Germany, the witnessed events have not only an international dimension, but they focus attention again on one particular problem of national economic policy, the relationship of external economic policy and development policy, because the new strains on the international plane are in part reflected by this relationship.     

SAVINGS IN TIMES OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE: LESSONS FROM THE GERMAN EXPERIENCE

Pension reforms in many developed countries make individuals shoulder a bigger share of longevity and income risks. The desired response is that individuals accumulate private assets for retirement. Whether this actually takes place, is of paramount relevance for scientists and policy makers. We take Germany as an example: Twenty years of pension reform have transformed the monolithic German pension system into a multipillar system. Formerly generous public pension benefits are gradually being reduced, whereas substantial incentives are granted to occupational and private saving schemes. Has this transition worked out? We survey the reform steps and households’ reactions: How did individuals adjust their labor market behavior? How did private and occupational pension plans take off? How do behavioral adjustments vary in the population? Most Germans adapted to the new situation. Both actual and expected retirement decisions changed and the share of households without supplementary pensions decreased from 73% to 39% in little more than a decade. This is a remarkable success. Nonetheless, households with low education, low income and less financial education did neither adjust their retirement behavior nor pick up supplementary pension plans and are thus likely to face difficulties in bridging the gap arising in future pension income.