Hidden persistent disasters and asset prices

This study analyzes the effects of agents’ learning about hidden persistent economic disasters on asset prices. In this study, it is assumed that aggregate consumption follows a hidden Markov regime-switching process and a representative agent infers the current regime, normal regime, or disaster regime, sequentially from the realized path of the past consumption process. In this setting, the fluctuation in the agent’s posterior probabilities of the disaster regime augments the volatility of equity returns. By utilizing the stochastic differential utility, this study demonstrates that the current model can help resolve many asset pricing puzzles including the equity premium puzzle, equity volatility puzzle, and risk-free rate puzzle simultaneously. Further, the current model predicts the counter-cyclical pattern in the equity premium and equity-return volatility on the normal regime, although asset returns are negative and highly volatile during disasters. The study also demonstrates that, if the agent’s preferences are restricted to time-additive power utility, the consideration of hidden persistent disasters deepens the asset pricing puzzles.     

Reducing Agricultural Income Vulnerabilities through Agroforestry Training: Evidence from a Randomised Field Experiment in Indonesia

Although agroforestry is recognised as a means to stabilise farm income, little work has been done to differentiate farmers based on their incomes, their capacity to diversify crops, and the economic outcomes of agroforestry adoption. By distinguishing between high- and low-income farmers, this paper examines how agricultural training affects agroforestry promotion, and evaluates its relevance for the poor, the extent of its adoption, and its economic consequences. We found that although training generally increased participants’ knowledge of agroforestry, it increased crop diversity only for low-income participants. We also detected the presence of information spillovers from participants to non-participants, which may increase crop diversity among non-participants and consequently reduce the measurable impact of training. When income heterogeneity is considered, we found that the low-income participants benefited more from increasing their incomes and expanding their social networks than the higher-income participants. We also found that agroforestry adoption helped to reduce income volatility.     

Business cycle and corruption

In studying the Great Depression, Galbraith asserts that the higher the transitory income the higher the corruption. For a panel of 39 countries over 13 years, 1995-2007, Galbraith's claim holds. Regression analyses also confirm that the higher the permanent income, the lower the corruption.     

Contagion of Self‐Interested Behavior: Evidence from Group Dictator Game Experiments

We examine how group decision‐making affects other‐regarding behavior in experimental dictator games. In particular, we assess whether the effects of iterated games differ for group and individual decision‐making and whether the difference in decision‐making style (individual or group) changes the perception of social identity. We make two findings on group decision‐making. First, group decisions become more selfish when repeating the game after changing group members. Second, a dictator group donates more to a recipient group at the same university than to a recipient group at a different university. These findings are not true for individual decision‐making.     

RADICALISM VERSUS GRADUALISM: AN ANALYTICAL SURVEY OF THE TRANSITION STRATEGY DEBATE

Academic debate on a transition strategy for former socialist economies continues even a quarter century after the collapse of the communism in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. In this paper, through an analytical survey of 137 preceding studies, we present an overall picture of the debate and examine the relationship between the debate attitudes and the literature attributes in related studies. We found that the radicalists maintain a consistent debate attitude from the viewpoints of time speed and policy sequence of economic transition, while the debate attitude of the gradualists is more diversified. We also found that there is another group of researchers that stays within the framework of the radicalism‐versus‐gradualism debate while at the same time keeping at arm's length from both the radicalists and the gradualists. In addition, our regression estimation of qualitative selection models provides interesting findings on the relationship between the debate attitudes and the literature attributes.     

On a Non-linear Risk Analysis for Stock Market Indexes

We propose a method to detect early signs of a potential major crash in the market from only the information of the time series representing its stock market data. As reinforcement of the abnormality test Test(ABN) developed in Okabe, Matsuura, and Klimek (International Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics, 3, 443–484, 2002), we introduce in this paper a risk graph to measure abnormality of time series by using the non-linear prediction analysis in the theory of KM₂O-Langevin equations. By applying it to real data of stock market indexes on the Black Monday of 1987 and those during the past 7 years from January 2000 to December 2006, we investigate whether we can detect early signs of a potential major crash in the market by watching the behavior of the risk graph. An erratum to this article can be found at     

A Finite‐Time‐Horizon Model of Suicide When a Person's Income is at Risk: A Research Note

The risk of income fluctuations affects the suicidal behaviour. First, an increase in this risk makes risk‐averse individuals more likely to commit suicide by reducing their expected utility. Second, the increased risk makes them less likely to commit suicide by creating a value to waiting for the economic conditions to improve. I lay out a theoretical model of suicide to assess the net impact of income fluctuations on suicidal behaviour by taking into account an individual's ability to delay the action. I also address the question of whether there are generational differences in the suicidal behaviour.     

Consumption,income, and wealth inequality in Canada

In this paper, we document some features of the distribution of income, consumption and wealth in Canada using survey data from many different sources. We find that wage and income inequality have increased substantially over the last 30 years, but that much of this rise was offset by the tax and transfer system. As a result, the rise in consumption inequality has been relatively mild. We also document that wealth inequality has remained fairly stable since 1999. Using both confidential data and publicly available data, we are able to gauge the extent to which the publicly available data conceals aspects of inequality that confidential data reveals.     

Potential cost savings of frequent flyer miles for business travel

The mileage redemption strategy is a procedure used by many business firms to reduce air travel costs, in which the frequent flyer miles of traveling employees accumulated during business trips are applied to their future business trips to obtain “free” air tickets. This paper presents a framework that investigates how the frequent flyer miles can be used in the most effective way to reduce air travel costs by those firms that are either using the mileage redemption strategy or considering the use of the strategy. The framework can be implemented quite easily by a spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel.