Jensen’s Inequality in Finance

The purpose of this paper is to measure the size and the statistical significance of three inequalities in the field of financial economics. The three are variants of Jensen’s inequality. The first inequality is a comparison of the expected value of a ratio to the ratio of the expected value, a problem that arises in pricing foreign exchange rates. The second is a comparison of the log of the expected value to the expected value of the log, a problem that arises in testing forward market efficiency, money demand, production functions, and trade gravity models. The third is a comparison of the expected utility to the utility of the expected value, and helps in determining the importance of the expected utility paradigm, and the magnitude of the equity risk premium. The methodology used is by simulation of random normal variables, thereby introducing sampling error. Despite this sampling error the conclusion is general: all three inequalities are economically material, and stand statistically as inequalities. The major conclusion is that Jensen’s inequality is not a theoretical and superfluous exercise in finance as some have advocated.

Econometric diagnostics to distinguish between the IS curve and the Ricardian equivalence

In this article two different specifications of a macroeconomic model are analysed. The first model is the Keynesian IS (Investments–savings) curve. The second is derived from the New Classical Ricardian equivalence. Since the two specifications are observationally equivalent, including the same set of variables, the econometric diagnostics of the regression equations are used to differentiate between the two of them. Six statistical criteria are compared: serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, specification tests, fit, randomness, and normality. The results support much better Ricardian equivalence than the Keynesian IS model.     

Do soccer players play the mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium?

Mixed-Strategy Nash Equilibrium (MSNE) is a commonly used solution concept in game-theoretic models in various fields in economics, management and other disciplines, but the experimental results whether the MSNE predicts well actual play in games is mixed. Consequently, the evidence for naturally occurring games in which the MSNE predicts the outcome well is of great importance, as it can justify the vast use of MSNE in models. The game between the kicker and the goalkeeper in soccer penalty kicks is a real-world game that can be used to examine the application of the MSNE concept or its accuracy, because payoffs are a common knowledge, the players have huge incentives to play correctly, the game is simple enough to analyse, its Nash equilibrium is in mixed strategies, and players’ actions can be observed. We collected and analysed the data on the direction of kicks and jumps in penalty kicks in various top leagues and tournaments. Our analysis suggests that the MSNE predictions are the closest to the actual sample data, even though some other prediction methods use information on the marginal distribution of kicks or jumps, whereas the MSNE does not.     

Performance differences between the wrigley/rumelt strategic categories

This study examines differences in profit and sales performance between the different Wrigley/Rumelt categories of diversification strategy. Our sample comprised 305 large U. K. manufacturing companies over the period 1972–84. Although diversification strategy explained only a small proportion of inter-firm performance differences, once the influence of other firm and industry variables were taken into account, significant differences did emerge. Our findings conflict with those of earlier U.S. studies. In particular, we find that diversified firms outperformed specialized firms and there was no evidence that related diversification was more successful than unrelated.     

Do people tip strategically,to improve future service? Theory and evidence

Abstract.  A central question about tipping is whether people tip strategically, to improve future service, or only because tipping is a social norm. I present a theoretical model that incorporates psychological utility associated with tipping (because it is a social norm) and allows tipping to be motivated also by future service considerations. The model predicts that if future service is a reason for tipping, the sensitivity of tips to service quality should be higher for repeating customers than for non-repeating ones. Surveys of 597 restaurant customers are analysed and suggest that future service is not a reason for tipping.     

Are Optimal CO2 Emissions Really Optimal?

Although the greenhouse effect is by many considered as one of the most serious environmental problems, several economic studies of the greenhouse effect, most notably Nordhaus's DICE model, suggest that it is optimal to allow the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) to increase by a factor of three over the next century. Other studies have found that substantial reductions can be justified on economic grounds. This paper explores into the reasons for these differences and identifies four (partly overlapping) crucial issues that have to be dealt with when analysing the economics of the greenhouse effect: low-probability but catastrophic events; cost evaluation methods; the choice of discount rate; the choice of decision criterion. The paper shows that (i) these aspects are crucial for the policy conclusions drawn from models of the economics of climate change, and that (ii) ethical choices have to be made for each of these issues. This fact needs wider recognition since economics is very often perceived as a value neutral tool that can be used to provide policy makers with “optimal” policies.     

Organizational innovation,technological innovation,and export performance: The effects of innovation radicalness and extensiveness

This study focuses on the relevance of different types of innovation for firms’ export performance. Despite ample research on the innovation–performance relationship, previous studies have mainly focused on technological innovations, leaving the effects of organizational innovations relatively unexplored. Hypotheses on the relationship between organizational and technological innovations and firm export performance are tested by structural equation modelling using data from 218 Swedish export ventures. The results indicate that organizational innovation enhances export performance both directly and indirectly by sustaining technological innovation. Moreover, by fine-graining our analysis of the mediating role of technological innovation, according to its radicalness and extensiveness, for organizational innovation, we show how the latter enhances both the radicalness and extensiveness of technological innovation although, notably, only extensiveness is actually beneficial for export performance. This study helps alleviate the scarcity of research examining the links among different types of innovation in relation to export performance and contributes to international business and marketing literature by generating new evidence regarding the mechanisms through which organizational and technological innovations may improve export performance.     

Do MNEs from developed and emerging economies differ in their location choice of FDI? A 36-year review

This study examines the extent to which MNEs from developed (DMNEs) and emerging (EMNEs) economies differ in Location behaviour. Studies on MNE location choices have failed to capture the changing FDI landscape and leave the inconsistent findings unexplained. We address this gap by systematically reviewing the extant literature on location choices of DMNEs and EMNEs over the past 36 years – from the introduction of the OLI model to 2016. Key themes emerging from the review reflect a comprehensive picture, capturing the impact of multiple factors affecting location choices of DMNEs and EMNEs. Future research is challenged by: a. adopting an integrated approach examining three levels – individual (managerial), firm (ownership structure, type of FDI, internationalisation stages, and the different nature of ownership advantage), and context of location decisions (home, host, sub-national, regional, supranational, and networking); b. refining or developing theories to capture the dynamic picture of MNE internationalisation.     

Weight Factors in Cost-Benefit Analysis of Climate Change

Equity considerations may justify the use of weight factors when estimating the costs of climate change. This paper reviews different weight factors that have been used in the climate economics literature. Based on a simple model, it is shown that although the different weight factors imply substantially different cost-damage estimates, they actually yield the same optimal emission reductions. This paradox is explained by the fact that some of the approaches require that also the abatement costs are weighted – and this offsets the effect of the diverging cost-damage estimates. The model is then used to analyse the importance weighting may have on the overall cost-benefit analysis. At present, when most of the global emissions of (fossil) CO2 originate from the industrialised countries, the global optimal emissions are considerably lower if costs are weighted. However, the more the emissions in developing countries grow, the less important becomes the introduction of weight factors in cost-benefit analysis of climate change for the global emission reductions, in the model developed here. On a regional level, the introduction of weight factors continues to play an important role, implying substantially lower emissions in the rich region and slightly higher (!) in the poor.