Finding Pareto Optimal Insurance Contracts

This paper deals with on-line computation—or step-wise learning—of Pareto optimal insurance contracts. Our approach tolerates that the loss distribution might be unknown, intractable, or not well specified. Thus we accommodate fairly inexperienced parties. Losses are here simulated or observed, one at a time, and they cause iterated revisions of the premium. The mechanical and global nature of probability calculus thereby yields to more tentative, myopic procedures, possibly closer to how humans operate or reason in face of risk. Sequential revisions may also reduce the expense of insurers' time and money in seeking sufficient statistics. Emphasized below is the remarkable simplicity and stability of the resulting adaptive procedures. Special attention goes to catastrophic risks, and to subsidized or competitive insurance.     

Supplier Partnerships and the Small, High-Growth Firm: Selecting for Success

Strategic partnerships are commonplace in today's global economy. Effective use of partnerships are viewed increasingly as an important issue facing small, growth-oriented firms. A key debate is how small firms should manage supplier partnerships. Contrasting the debate about the extent to which small firms are inertial versus adaptive, the impact of growth on value chain partnerships with suppliers was investigated. Data collected from 91 pharmaceutical-related firms is used to test the proposition that firm growth is related positively to maintaining or to expanding relationships with suppliers, not to terminating partnerships. The paper further posits that this relationship between firm growth and the amount purchased from a supplier is moderated by the perceived effectiveness of the value-chain partnerships such that when effectiveness is higher, the relationship between sales growth and the amount purchased from a value-chain partner is stronger. The propositions, which are tested with regression analysis, are supported partially.     

Contract modifications and the basis behavior of live cattle futures

The purpose of this study was to assess the basis behavior of the Live Cattle Futures contract at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) before and after the 1995 contract changes. Additionally, an alternative method of basis calculation utilizing weighted mean futures prices versus settlement futures prices was compared to determine which method provides a better representation of the basis level. Within a regression model with heteroskedascity error framework, we found that the level of nearby basis in the period after June 1995 has shifted lower and the average monthly open interest of net commercial long positions has substantially increased after the contract modifications. These empirical results are consistent with the notion that more long activity entered the market in response to the contract modifications. Additionally, an alternative (new) measure of basis calculation (cash price minus weighted mean futures price) produced similar results to two other commonly used measures. In conclusion, the 1995 contract changes have neither increased nor decreased the volatility of live cattle basis. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:557–590, 2004     

Dynamics of the federal funds target rate: a nonstationary discrete choice approach

We apply a discrete choice approach to model the empirical behaviour of the Federal Reserve in changing the federal funds target rate, the benchmark of short‐term market interest rates in the US. Our methods allow the explanatory variables to be nonstationary as well as stationary. This feature is particularly useful in the present application as many economic fundamentals that are monitored by the Fed and are believed to affect decisions to adjust interest rate targets display some nonstationarity over time. The chosen model successfully predicts the majority of the target rate changes during the time period considered (1994–2001) and helps to explain strings of similar intervention decisions by the Fed. Based on the model‐implied optimal interest rate, our findings suggest that there is a lag in the Fed's reaction to economic shocks during this period. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of planning in achieving indigenous land justice and community goals

This paper suggests that the capacity of indigenous groups to engage effectively in a range of planning activities is crucial to achieving land justice and community goals. This argument is relevant in the face of long-standing tensions between indigenous peoples residing in post-settler societies and nation-states such as Australia, Canada, and New Zealand over questions of land and natural resource use. The paper argues that effective planning is crucial for (i) protecting indigenous interests by engaging the planning activities of the state, (ii) the successful acquisition of lands through legal land claim processes, and (iii) helping indigenous communities achieve their goals by implementing effective community-based planning processes.     

Fashion consumers and fashion problem recognition style

Consumer spending over the life span of today's 18‐ to 25‐year‐old emerging adults will reach into the $10 trillion range. Emerging adults are a powerful force in shaping demand for consumer products. The problem recognition styles associated with emerging adults can help marketers understand this group of consumers and provide insight into what kinds of products, services, and messages will appeal to them as lifelong consumers. The purpose of this study was to examine differences between men and women and among fashion consumer groups in fashion problem recognition style. Participants were a convenience sample of emerging adult consumers from one Midwestern university in the US, 136 men and 158 women who completed the Measure of Fashion Innovativeness and Opinion Leadership, Fashion Problem Recognition Style Scale, and provided demographic information. Both fashion followers and men reflected a need‐based approach to problem recognition. Both fashion change agents and women reflected a want‐based approach to problem recognition. Male fashion followers differed from all other groups in indicating a need‐based approach to problem recognition. This study built on previous work by examining differences in problem recognition style owing to fashion consumer group and gender. The basic premise behind problem recognition style was validated; that is, actual state (need‐based) vs. ideal state (want‐based) approaches to fashion problem recognition did relate to fashion consumer group membership and gender.