Analytic derivation of sociometric dimensions

Dimensional analysis has been defined variously as the synthesis of dimensionless variables and as a way of spatially representing data. While in sociometrics, one may not be able to devise models resembling those of the physical sciences because of the complexity of many social situations, one may in some cases successfully apply the techniques of classic dimensional analysis and get empirically valid results. More often we derive with analytic methods from the social sciences different kinds of dimensional frameworks in which to represent data. This paper will compare these approaches to the study of relationships and give examples of where each might be appropriate. Finally, a classification of the analytical methods will be presented.     

Weaker MSE criteria and tests for linear restrictions in regression models with non-spherical disturbances

This paper extend, in an asymptotic sense, the strong and the weaker mean square error criteria and corresponding tests to linear models with non-spherical disturbances where the error covariance matrix is unknown but a consistent estimator for it is available. The mean square error tests of Toro-Vizcorrondo and Wallace (1968) and Wallace (1972) test for the superiority of restricted over unrestricted linear estimators in a least squares context. This generalization of these tests makes them available for use with GLS, Zellner's SUR, 2SLS, 3SLS, tests of over identification, and so forth.     

Managerial evaluation of exogenous forecast sources

This paper concerns the managerial evaluation of forecast vendors—individuals or firms offering for sale future forecasts of random variables relevant to managerial decision making. Assuming the forecasts are exogenous in the sense they are generated by a methodology unknown or unproven to management, the paper uses a logistic regression model to present a statistical test for informativeness that allows for an interpretation of the vendor's abilities. The advantage of the approach is that it requires as input only knowledge of the unconditional probability distribution of the variable being forecast and a relatively small historical track record of the vendor's forecasting performance. No benchmark forecast is necessary and few assumptions are required about the statistical process that generates the forecasts. As an illustrative empirical application, the paper presents an evaluation of the informativeness of the published long-range price forecasts by a veteran analyst of the Iowa hog market.     

Projecting the future size and health status of the U.S. elderly population

"A projection model based on a multivariate continuous state, stochastic process is presented. The model allows multiple time-varying covariates to be used so parameters can be estimated from time series information on health changes and mortality, and their interaction. Health changes are simulated by altering parameters controlling the age trajectory and diffusion of risk factor means, variances, and covariances....By increasing the information used in projections it may be possible to better (a) anticipate the state of health at extreme ages, (b) forecast changes in health at specific ages over time, (c) stimulate the effects of specific interventions, and (d) determine the sensitivity of outcomes to a range of interventions."     

ORGANIZATIONAL DECISION-MAKING AS HIERARCHICAL LEVELS OF DRAMA*

In conducting a longitudinal examination of eight long-term complex decision processes in two Fortune 500 heavy manufacturing companies the authors developed a six-level framework of decision complexity. The levels range from: (1) instantaneous decision choices to (2) decision actions (3) decision events (4) mini-decision processes (5) decision processes and (6) decision theatres. They vary in time, numbers of participants, and in the integrative effort required to formulate and implement them. Thus, one problem with the word ‘decision’is that it is used to mean many different things in organizational settings. Each lower level of ‘decision’was found to combine with ‘decisions’of the same level and to be embedded within higher levels, resulting in a nested hierarchy of simultaneously occurring processes.     

Integrating the disabled into the work force: A survey of fortune 500 company attitudes and practices

Full participation in the work force continues to be an elusive goal for disabled individuals. One common explanation for this state of affairs is that employers tend to have negative attitudes about what the handicapped have to offer as employees and what is required to integrate them into the work force. Unfortunately, relatively little recent data is available about such attitudes. Thus, a survey of Fortune 500 companies was conducted to examine employers' attitudes toward the disabled. Employers' hiring and accommodation practices were also examined. Results were encouraging for the handicapped in some areas (e.g., performance perceptions) and a cause for concern in others (e.g., the perceived cost of making workplace accommodations). Level of exposure to the handicapped was also related to attitudes and practices. Limitations, research directions, and implications for corporations are discussed.