Research returns redux: a meta-analysis of the returns to agricultural R&D

A total of 289 studies of returns to agricultural R&D were compiled and these provide 1821 estimates of rates of return. After removing statistical outliers and incomplete observations, across the remaining 1128 observations the estimated annual rates of return averaged 65 per cent overall — 80 per cent for research only, 80 per cent for extension only, and 47 per cent for research and extension combined. These averages reveal little meaningful information from a large body of literature, which provides rate-of-return estimates that are often not directly comparable. This study was aimed at trying to account for the differences. Several features of the methods used by research evaluators matter, in particular assumptions about lag lengths and the nature of the research-induced supply shift.     

The impact of tourism: A case from the Bahama Islands

LaFlamme, Alan G., “The Impact of Tourism: A Case from the Bahama Islands,” Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. VI, No. 2, April/June 1979, pp. 137–148. The socio-cultural impact of increased tourism on a small, once isolated island community in the Bahama Islands is discussed. The community's traditions have, for the most part, been maintained. However, material living standards, occupational specializations, and race relations have been significantly altered. For a number of reasons, the local people have not taken on the role of “professional natives.”     

Labor supply responses to marginal Social Security benefits: Evidence from discontinuities

A key question for Social Security reform is whether workers respond to the link on the margin between the Social Security taxes they pay and the Social Security benefits they will receive. We estimate the effects of the marginal Social Security benefits that accrue with additional earnings on three measures of labor supply: retirement age, hours, and labor earnings. We develop a new approach to identifying these incentive effects by exploiting five provisions in the Social Security benefit rules that generate discontinuities in marginal benefits or non-linearities in marginal benefits that converge to discontinuities as uncertainty about the future is resolved. We find that individuals approaching retirement (age 52 and older) respond to the Social Security tax-benefit link on the extensive margin of their labor supply decisions: we estimate that a 10% increase in the net-of-tax share reduces the two-year retirement hazard by a statistically significant 2.0 percentage points from a base rate of 15%. The evidence with regard to labor supply responses on the intensive margin is more mixed: we estimate that the elasticity of hours with respect to the net-of-tax share is 0.42 and statistically significant, but we do not find a statistically significant earnings elasticity. Though we lack statistical power to estimate results within subsamples precisely, the retirement response is driven mostly by the female subsample, while the hours response comes from the male subsample.     

Capital Inflows to Hungary in 1995–96 and the Accompanying Policy Responses

In order to analyze the composition and effects of, and the policy responses to, capital inflows to Hungary during 1995–96, we present an analytical framework that emphasizes the distinction between net capital flows to the private and public sectors (the latter includes the government and the central bank). This distinction is essential in Hungary's case, because figures for overall net inflows conceal the fact that huge net capital inflows to the private sector were accompanied by large repayments of foreign public debt, covered by significant privatization revenues. We present indicators of the domestic monetary impact of net capital inflows in order to analyze the magnitude, costs, and effects of sterilization. We note that extensive sterilization and the use of privatization revenues for public debt repayment largely explain why capital inflows to Hungary did not have significant effects on the real economy or on domestic monetary aggregates in the period reviewed.