出生缺陷地理风险因子的空间分析

出生缺陷是影响人口出生质量最重要的因素。大量研究表明,出生缺陷仅仅靠单纯的生物医学研究还不够,多学科的交叉研究是有效探讨出生缺陷病因和预防的唯一出路。利用北京大学人口环境健康组调查数据,分类了能够在地理空间上归属的出生缺陷风险因素,将这些因素存在的空间相关性进行了传统统计分析方法不适宜的风险因子与出生缺陷统计因果之间的研究。探讨了空间分析技术在出生缺陷的地理风险因子研究的一般步骤与关键技术,为出生缺陷研究提供了新的思路。     

银行导向的存款保险体系——一个适用于欠发达国家的存款保险制度

本文承袭Morck等(2000)的研究方法,运用资产定价回归模型的拟合系数(即R2)来捕捉股价波动的同步性。在引入中国证券市场制度建设过程中六个标志性事件的基础上,我们发现,伴随着制度建设的逐步推进、不断完善的历史过程,股价波动的同步性趋向减弱,股票价格所反映出的公司特质信息越来越丰富。在稳健性检验中,我们引入中国中小投资者法律保护分值作为反映制度建设进程的代理变量,发现投资者法律保护措施的加强有效抑制了股价波动的“同涨共跌”现象,再次验证了本文的研究结论。     

中低层灵活就业群体的异同分析与对策

中低层灵活就业群体主要由下岗工人与农民工组成,他们是就业群体中的弱势群体,如何对他们进行更好的制度安排,促进灵活就业的发展,对于缓解就业压力有着积极的意义.中低层灵活就业中的两大类群体在就业方面既存在共性又存在区别,对此进行分析能更好地促进他们实现灵活就业,并为政府采取有针对性的措施提供参考.     

Financing Transit Systems Through Value Capture

A bstract .   Much of the literature on value capture reports empirical findings on the incidence of rising land values related to distance from a transit stop following the installation of rail transit improvements. This annotated bibliography shows that the elevated value effects of transit access are well documented. The authors maintain that it is now time for transit/land-use research to move from hypothesis testing to practical applications of value capture . Longitudinal models can help predict land-value increments over a period of time, yielding estimates of the total capturable revenues that would support the debt financing of transit improvement projects.     

Social Security, Poverty and Economic Transition: An Analysis for Bulgaria 1992–96

The paper addresses the issues of poverty and social security in a transitional environment on the basis of recent economic developments in Bulgaria. Special emphasis is placed on the need for a new type of social safety net stemming from the radical changes in the political and economic system. The evolution of the social security system in Bulgaria during the transition is analysed focusing on such elements as the pension system, unemployment benefits, child allowances, etc. The empirical analysis is based on extensive use of data from the Bulgarian Household Budget Surveys during the period 1992–1996. Poverty in Bulgaria is measured using different poverty measurements and some quantitative results showing the changing dimensions of poverty in the transition period are presented and discussed in the paper.EES or e-mail at Corresponding author. E-mail:     

The Kornai effect with partial bailouts and taxes

The model examines Kornai's observation that in the presence of bailouts, firms' demand for inputs will be greater than would otherwise be the case. This conjecture is examined in a model in which both revenue and cost uncertainty are present and in which firms making losses are partially subsidized and firms making positive profits are partially taxed. The Kornai effect is more prevalent the greater the subsidy rate, the smaller the tax rate and the greater the variance of the random variables through which uncertainty manifests itself. In the case of strongly positively correlated cost and revenue uncertainty, the absolute incidence of the Kornai effect is small.     

渐开线圆柱齿轮的形位误差探讨

从误差角度分析，综述ＧＢ１００９５－８８《渐开线圆柱齿轮精度》误差的表达方法。     

社会资本的作用随市场化进程减弱还是加强?-来自中国农村贫困的实证研究

在市场化转型的过程中,社会资本作为一种非市场力量,它的作用会随着市场化进程减弱还是加强?本文以农村贫困为例,研究了市场化如何影响社会资本的作用。本文发现:(1)社会网络和公共信任能显著地减少贫困,而且在社区层面的作用尤其明显;(2)随着市场化程度的提高,社会资本减少贫困的作用总体上来说会减少,其中,家庭层面的社会网络的作用减少得尤其显著,而社会层面的社会资本的作用却不会显著下降。