EXAMINING THE ASYMMETRIC BEHAVIOUR OF MACROECONOMIC AGGREGATES IN ASIAN ECONOMIES

Abstract. The goal of this paper is to test for asymmetric behaviour of macroeconomic aggregates for three Asian economies; namely, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Korea. Whether macroeconomic aggregates can be characterised as asymmetric has important implications for policy‐making and econometric modelling including forecasting. We examine two forms of asymmetries; specifically deepness, which arises when a detrended time series contains an asymmetric distribution, and steepness, which arises when the first difference of a series contains an asymmetric distribution. Overall, our findings suggest that for all three countries, the bulk of the series display asymmetry behaviour.     

Macroeconomics of Agricultural Trade Liberalization

Abstract

In this article a macroeconomic model is built to examine interactions between the agricultural sector and the industrial sector in an emerging market economy. This article examines how monetary shock and real shocks produce agricultural price fluctuations and change in employment through multiple cross effects. Monetary shocks result in overshooting of primary commodity price while real shock in terms of rise in the production of primary commodity mitigates the volatility of primary price.     

Is devaluation expansionary or contractionary? Empirical evidence from Fiji

Devaluation has been traditionally promoted as an effective tool for increasing exports and improving the external position of the devaluing country if a nominal devaluation results in expenditure switching. In this article, our aim is to model the relationship between currency devaluations and output for Fiji. Following the approach in Bahmani et al. (2002 Bahmani-Oskooee, M, Chomsisengphet, S and Kandil, M. 2002. Are devaluations contractionary in Asia?. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 25: 69–81. [Taylor &; Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]), we extend the traditional model by incorporating other monetary and fiscal policy variables. We achieve our goal by using the recently developed bounds testing approach to cointegration and the autoregressive distributed lag model and find that devaluation is expansionary in the case of Fiji.     

Labour productivity trends in Australian manufacturing: some time series properties

Labour productivity plays a significant role in economic growth, labour demand and employment situation of a particular economy. In this light, the presence of a structural break in productivity, and its unit root property, has important consequences for the overall economy and in major sectors such as manufacturing. In this article, using some recently developed unit root tests, we examine: (i) the null hypothesis of a unit root in the log-level of labour productivity for 38 manufacturing subdivisions against the alternative of trend stationarity over a three-decade period; and (ii) the presence of a structural break in the series, and whether the break has had a permanent or a transitory effect on manufacturing labour productivity. Our main finding is that shocks to labour productivity have had a transitory effect, implying that policies are likely to have only short-term effects.     

Modelling money demand for a panel of eight transitional economies

In this article, we estimate money demand functions for a panel of eight transitional economies, using quarterly data for the period 1995:01 1995 to 2005:03. We find that real M1 and real M2 and their determinants, namely real income and short-term domestic interest rate, are cointegrated, both for individual countries as well as for the panel. Long-run elasticities suggest that consistent with theory, real income positively and nominal interest rate negatively impact real money demand. Our test for panel Granger causality suggests short-run bidirectional causality between M1 and M2 and their determinants. Finally, our tests for stability of the money demand functions reveal more cases of unstable money demand functions when M2 is used as a proxy for money demand.     

Interdependence and dynamic linkages between the emerging stock markets of South Asia

The present article examines the dynamic linkages between the stock markets of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka using a temporal Granger causality approach by binding the relationship among the stock price indices within a multivariate cointegration framework. We also examine the impulse response functions. Our main finding is that in the long run, stock prices in Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka Granger‐cause stock prices in Pakistan. In the short run there is unidirectional Granger causality running from stock prices in Pakistan to India, stock prices in Sri Lanka to India and from stock prices in Pakistan to Sri Lanka. Bangladesh is the most exogenous of the four markets, reflecting its small size and modest market capitalization.     

Does environmental quality influence health expenditures? Empirical evidence from a panel of selected OECD countries

In this paper we examine the role of environmental quality in determining per capita health expenditures. We take a panel cointegration approach in order to explore the possibility of estimating both short-run and long-run impacts of environmental quality. Our empirical analysis is based on eight OECD countries, namely Austria, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, and the UK for the period 1980-1999. We find that per capita health expenditure, per capita income, carbon monoxide emissions, sulphur oxide emissions and nitrogen oxide emissions are panel cointegrated. While short-run elasticities reveal that income and carbon monoxide emissions exert a statistically significant positive effect on health expenditures, in the long-run in addition to income and carbon monoxide, we find that sulphur oxide emissions have a statistically significant positive impact on health expenditures.     

Testing for capital mobility: New evidence from a panel of G7 countries

In this paper, we test the savings-investment relationship for the G7 countries. Upon applying the Gregory and Hansen [Gregory, A.W., Hansen, B.E., 1996. Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts, J. Econ. 70, 99-126] residual-based structural break test for cointegration for each of the G7 countries, we did not find any evidence of a cointegrating relationship between savings and investment. Extending the analysis to a panel framework, we could not establish any evidence of panel cointegration. Taken together, our findings suggest that capital in these G7 countries is highly mobile since no long-term relationship exists between savings and investment.     

Tourism demand modelling: some issues regarding unit roots,co‐integration and diagnostic tests

This paper investigates the all important issue of diagnostic tests, including unit roots and cointegration, in the tourism demand modelling literature. The origins of this study lie in the apparent lack in the tourism economics literature of detail concerning the diagnostic test aspect. Study of this deficiency has suggested that previous literature on tourism demand modelling may be divided into two categories: the pre‐1995 and post‐1995 studies. It was found that the pre‐1995 and some post‐1995 studies have ignored unit root tests and co‐integration and, hence, are vulnerable to the so‐called ‘spurious regression’ problem. In highlighting the key diagnostic tests reported by post‐1995 studies, this paper contends that there is no need to report the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) test, which is applicable only to financial market analysis where the dependent variable is return on an asset. More generally, heteroskedasticity is not seen as a problem in time‐series data. However, the reporting of a greater than necessary range of diagnostic tests — some of which do not have any theoretical justification with regard to tourism demand analysis — does not diminish the precision of the results or the model. This paper should appeal to scholars involved in tourism demand modelling. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does complexity deter customer‐focus?

Economic models suggest that firms use a simple cost‐benefit calculation to evaluate customer requests for new product features, but an extensive organizational literature shows the decision to implement innovation is more nuanced. We address this theoretical tension by studying how firms respond to customer requests for incremental product innovations, and how these responses change when the requested innovation is complex. Using large sample empirical analyses combined with detailed qualitative data drawn from interviews, we find considerable variance in the relationship between customer demands, complexity, and investments in incremental innovations. The qualitative study revealed the importance of organization structures, competitive pressures, and incentives for resource allocation processes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.