The evaluation of the long-term economic development of the Irkutsk region in the system of the all-Russian forecasting

The long-term forecasting of the development of the Irkutsk region by economic sectors is considered. The evaluations of the structural changes and the interregional relationships by the variants of the potential trends of development of the economy of Siberia and Russia in a whole are presented. The forecast is made by the production output data, which are the basis of the target growth of the final consumption.     

Analysis of the status and trends of applications of advanced manufacturing technologies in Russia

The article has analyzed trends in applying advanced manufacturing technologies in Russia in 2005–2014. The dynamics of technical process structures in the context of applications has been considered. The dynamics of the age structure and the structure of technologies in use in annual terms by the place of acquiring has been assessed. The start-up, availability, and removal balance of technologies has been formed, the effective start-up level, and possible ways to improve the state statistical indicators of innovation development have been determined.     

Training professionals' usage and understanding of Kirkpatrick's Level 3 and Level 4 evaluations

Training professionals have long acknowledged the necessity of conducting behavior‐based (Level 3) and results‐based (Level 4) evaluations, yet organizations do not frequently conduct such evaluations. This research examined training professionals' perceptions of the utility of Level 3 and Level 4 evaluations and the factors that facilitate or obstruct their attempts to perform them. The research was conducted using Brinkerhoff's Success Case Method and Gilbert's Behavior Engineering Model as its frameworks. The three key factors identified by study participants as having an impact upon their ability to conduct Level 3 and Level 4 evaluations were the availability of resources such as time and personnel, managerial support (organizational) and expertise in evaluative methodology (individual). The research findings indicated a need to further explore how training professionals interpret Level 3 and Level 4 and how they can better develop their evaluative expertise, which in turn may increase effectiveness in gaining organizational support for evaluation efforts.     

Do economic statistics contain information to predict stock indexes futures prices and returns? Evidence from Asian equity futures markets

This research examines the impact of local and international market factors on the pricing of stock indexes futures in East Asian countries. The purpose of this paper is to present a study of the significant factors that determine the major stock indexes futures’ prices of Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. This study first investigates the relationships between Hang Seng Index Futures, KLCI Futures, SiMSCI Futures, KOSPI Futures, Taiwan Exchange Index Futures and local interest rates, dividend yields, local exchange rates, overnight S&P500 index and a newly constructed index, Asian Tigers Malaysia Index (ATMI). 11 years historical data of stock indexes futures and the economic statistics are studied; 10 years in-sample data are used for testing and developing the pricing models, and 1 year out-of-sample data is used for the purpose of verifying the predicted values of the stock indexes futures. Using simple linear regressions, local interest rates, dividend yields, exchange rates, overnight S&P500 and ATMI are found to have significant impact on these futures contracts. In this research, the next period close is predicted using simple linear regression and non-linear artificial neural network (ANN). An examination of the prediction results using nonlinear autoregressive ANN with exogenous inputs (NARX) shows significant abnormal returns above the passive threshold buy and hold market returns and also above the profits of simple linear regression (SLR). The empirical evidence of this research suggests that economic statistics contain information which can be extracted using a hybrid SLR and NARX trading model to predict futures prices with some degree of confidence for a year forward. This justifies further research and development of pricing models using fundamentally significant economic determinants to predict futures prices.

     

Workload control under continuous order release

Workload control is a production planning and control concept specifically designed for complex manufacturing environments. Past research on Workload control has been essentially focused on discrete order release. This means that release of orders to the shop floor takes places on a periodic basis. Continuous order release has been somehow neglected, in spite of its apparent potential for improving system performance, including the reduction of order flow times. This paper presents a simulation study of this order release approach. The study contributes for improving the basis for setting workload norms, selecting the workload control strategy and deciding upon routing alternatives under continuous order release.     

Dependence of the Russian defense industry on oil prices: Conversion

The article analyzes the impact of the collapse of world oil prices on the reduction of defense budget, production of weapons, innovative and personnel potential of the defense industry, and on country’s defense capability. Some proposals for the concept of structural changes in the defense industry have been formulated based on experience converting the defense industries in the Soviet Union, the United States, China, and France.     

Nanotechnology and the new technological revolution: Expectations and reality

This paper reviews the existing mechanisms of innovative development in the world economy focusing on emerging technologies markets evolution on the example of nanotechnology. The question has been raised of whether nanotechnologies can provide the core of the new technological revolution, and whether these prospects exist for NBIC convergence. In this connection the development of the global market for nano-enabled products following the 2007–2009 crisis and the reliability of the related development forecasts have been assessed. Particular attention has been paid to peculiarities of nanoenabled product market structure and the impact of stagnating R&D costs in the field of nanotechnology.     

Assessment of the impact of human capital on economic growth

This paper presents updated figures on the dynamics of human capital in the Russian economy. Time series of human capital are obtained for major types of economic activity that cover up to 85–90% of the total human capital in the Russian economy for 1992–2012. An analysis of the impact of accumulated human capital on economic dynamics is performed by means of the production function model. An original approach to assessing the production function based on the method of principal components is introduced.