Change by Design

Over the course of a century of professional practice, designers have mastered a set of skills that can be productively applied to a wider range of problems than has commonly been supposed. These include complex social problems, issues of organizational management, and strategic innovation. Conversely, non‐designers—those in leadership positions in companies, governmental and non‐governmental organizations, professionals in a broad range of services and industries—can benefit from learning how to think like designers. We offer some large‐scale and more finely grained ideas about how this might happen.     

EU Enlargement and the Portuguese Economy

The main focus of the present paper is on the emerging and likely future trade effects of enlargement. Though our particular concern is with Portugal, we set the scene by comparing the trade structures of the 10 countries of Central and Eastern Europe (i.e. the eight CEE accession states plus Bulgaria and Romania) – including an analysis of the individual cases of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland – with those of the EU15 as a whole, and with those of the 4 EU cohesion countries. The elimination of trade barriers between incumbents and accession states will have two trade‐related effects on EU incumbents: an increase in bilateral flows with the CEEC and a shift effect as the CEEC displace some incumbent exports to EU markets. The first effect is likely to be strongest for those incumbents for which there is a strong overlap between their export structure and the import structure of the CEEC. Portugal emerges as one of the economies with the least overlap. The displacement effect, we conclude, is likely to be particularly strong in the case of Portugal, given the high degree of similarity between Portuguese exports and those of the CEEC. Portugal appears to be ‘being squeezed from below’ in that, for the majority of its traditional export sectors, the CEEC became progressively more competitive during the second half of the 1990's. Portuguese specialisation was increasingly confined to low‐technology, low‐added‐value sectors with declining demand, as strong FDI inflows to the CEEC led to an increasing preponderance of more dynamic sectors in their export structures. Thus, Portugal is also being squeezed from above. This suggests that there may be substantial industrial disruption, in response to which labour‐market flexibility and dynamic entrepreneurial response is crucial. Intersectoral mobility is generally easier the more highly educated the workforce – an indicator on which Portugal scores poorly. The Portuguese labour market, however, displays a high degree of flexibility, consistent with its long lasting low rate of unemployment. Continued flexibility will help minimise these likely adjustment costs. Besides the trade and industry effects, other topics considered in the paper include the implications of enlargement for Portugal's ability to attract FDI, the likely consequences for Portugal of inward migration from the CEEC to the EU, and the implications of enlargement for Portugal's budgetary relations with the rest of the EU.     

Enlargement and the European Geography of the Information Technology Sector

The information technology sector in Europe, comprising the production of computer hardware and software, is disproportionately located on the continent's western periphery. The vast bulk of computers sold in Europe in the 1990s were assembled either in Ireland or Scotland, while Ireland also accounted for over 40 per cent of all packaged software and 60 per cent of all business software sold in Europe. As the sector in both these locations is largely foreign owned, the question arises as to whether EU enlargement might impact on the geography of the sector by diverting information technology FDI from the western to the new eastern periphery. This issue is explored in the present paper by analysis of five individual sub‐segments: computer assembly and electronic components, R&D, mass‐market packaged software and the remainder of the software sector. The paper deems it likely that computer assembly operations will continue the shift seen in recent years from Ireland and Scotland to Central and Eastern Europe. The production of electronic components such as microchips represents a growing share of activity in most EU locations as well as in the CEE countries. Analysis suggests that this pattern of geographically‐dispersed growth will resume once the consequences of the collapse of the high‐tech bubble are played out. The distribution of R&D activity across Europe and globally is also considered unlikely to be much affected by enlargement. As for software, as long as localisation activities remain important, Ireland – the EU location in which most of this activity is carried out – seems set to be able to compete strongly, given the attractiveness of its English‐language environment and other attributes to the young continental Europeans upon which this activity relies. Most software services remain largely non‐tradable however. This sector will grow in the accession states as computer penetration rates converge on the EU average, but without displacing activity from the incumbent EU member states. For firms already competing in the tradable niche software segment, on the other hand, enlargement cannot but be beneficial because of its impact on the size of the market into which they sell.     

Perceived conduct and professional ethics among marketing faculty

This paper describes the results of a mail survey to the educator membership of the American Marketing Association. Data were collected regarding beliefs about both the frequency of occurrence and severity of 59 ethical issues facing marketing faculty. The research questions examined include: What unethical practices are believed to most commonly occur? What practices are most severe? How do these beliefs vary by faculty rank and size and type of school? Implications for both the improvement of marketing education and for future research are provided.     

Reprint of: Stock salience and the asymmetric market effect of consumer sentiment news

We document asymmetric announcement effects of consumer sentiment news on United States stock and stock futures markets. While a negative market effect occurs upon the release of bad sentiment news, there is no market reaction for the counterpart good news. This supports the “negativity effect” hypothesis. Notably, this effect seems most likely to occur in salient stocks, which is consistent with the availability heuristic.     

Price Dynamics in International Wheat Markets

A vector autoregression model is used to evaluate dynamic relationships among international wheat prices. The effects of freight rates and exchange rates are also considered. Forecast error variance decompositions and impulse response functions are used to investigate price dynamics in six important international wheat markets. The results suggest significant dynamic relationships among prices in different international wheat markets and between the prices and exchange rates and transportation costs.
On s'est servi d'un modéle vectoriel à autorégression pour évaluer les relations dynamiques entre les cours du blé sur le marché international. On a également tenu compte de l'inci-dence des coûts de transport et du taux de change. La décomposition prévue de la variance de l'erreur et les fonctions de réaction ponctuelle ont également permis d'approfondir la dynamique des prix sur six grands marchés internationaux du blé. Les résultats suggérent des relations dynamiques notables entre les prix sur différents marchés internationaux du blé, de meme qu'entre les prix et le taux du change et les coûts de transport.     

The Challenge of Police Reform in England and Wales

As a recent Home Office White Paper 'Building Communities, Beating Crime' demonstrates, radical change now confronts the police service. Policing responsibilities and police budgets are being devolved to Basic Command Units and there will be radical internal changes in the make up and role of police and civilian staff in the service. The modernization process now contemplated by the Government can be expected to encompass both a number of issues identified within the 1993 Sheehy Report (particularly in relation to local pay bargaining) and further efficiency reforms that will impact significantly on the role and status of the police and the structure of police forces throughout England and Wales.     

Non‐parametric Modelling of Spatial Price Relationships

We apply non‐parametric methods to a consideration of price transmission processes within US egg markets at the turn of the nineteenth century. Gordon (National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 7833, 2000) labelled this as an era of ‘Great Inventions’ which contributed to the subsequent years of significant productivity growth and noted that the development of mechanical refrigeration and transportation technologies played an important role in this growth. Our models present certain advantages relative to parametric models traditionally employed in price transmission analyses. We compare results derived from local polynomial modelling with those obtained using non‐linear threshold models. Both techniques suggest that US egg markets were interrelated at the turn of the nineteenth century. However, non‐parametric techniques often suggest a higher degree of price transmission than that implied by threshold models. Results also suggest that threshold models may have difficulties in adequately capturing price relationship dynamics, especially when these are of a highly nonlinear nature.     

Design — the starting point for CIM

The author reviews the spectrum of computer-integrated manufacturing (CIM) aids now available to speed up the development, manufacture and marketing of new products. To help firms to decide which aid is best suited to their needs the author presents a 2-by-2 typology of business environments, the dimensions being uncertainty and complexity. For each cell he derives a factor critical to achievement of competitive advantage, to which is matched a suitable form of CIM.
The paper includes a survey of the characteristics and limitations of commercially available hardware and associated software, advice on the administration of the systems and the storage of information generated. The author concludes by defining the key to the successful use of CIM as ensuring its conscious integration into the business, which means having a clear understanding of what is involved in design and development, management awareness of and commitment to the potential usefulness of CIM, defining clear responsibilities for creating and owning data and planned introduction of a design and engineering information system.