Bulgarian Agriculture and EU Accession

This article analyses markets, income and agricultural policy changes in Bulgaria after its accession to the EU. A country AG-MEMOD model, consisting of 18 commodities organised in four sub-models (crops, livestock, milk & dairy and a link between crops and livestock) is applied. The model is an econometric, dynamic, partial-equilibrium and multi-product one. In order to examine the policy environment in Bulgaria, two scenarios are designed: baseline or non-accession (N-Ac) and accession (Ac). The accession scenario should have a very positive effect on the crop sector in Bulgaria, whereas the effect is the opposite on the livestock sector. The most remarkable results come from the milk sector. The effect on income is also positive, despite the pessimistic macroeconomic projections.     

Zins und Inflation: Bemerkungen zu einer Synthese der Wicksellschen und Fisherschen Inflationstheorie

Schlußbemerkung Die obigen Überlegungen sind keineswegs als Kritik an Friedrich Lutz zu verstehen. Die Lektüre seiner Schrift hat mich derart angeregt, daß ich versucht habe, mir selbst klar zu machen, welche Implikationen ein Wicksell-Fisher-Modell bzw. ein Wicksell-Fisher-Friedman-Modell für eine inflationäre Wirtschaft hat. Viele andere überlegungen, die sich in dem Text von Lutz befinden (wie z. B. das Verhalten der Zinsstruktur im Inflationsprozeß, die Existenz von indexierten Geldforderungen und der außenwirtschaftliche Aspekt der Inflation), habe ich in dieser Rezension auf Grund meiner langatmigen Reflexionen über das Grundproblem seiner Abhandlung nicht mehr ausführlich erwähnen können. Um so mehr empfehle ich dem Leser, diese Schrift mit größter Aufmerksamkeit zu lesen — er wird dementsprechend vom Autor Lutz entlohnt werden.     

Development of the Regional Natural Gas Market in Southeast Europe

The high level of reliance on external energy supplies, mainly from Russia, is considered a major risk to the energy security in Southeast Europe. This dependency is being addressed by the European Union’s new contractual and institutional framework. The construction of new gas pipelines and related infrastructure is being undertaken in a timely manner to secure supplies from alternative energy sources and enhance their sustainability. Still, the EU’s policies have run up against Russia’s systematic and stubborn resistance as it struggles to preserve its dominance in Europe’s energy market and thwart the implementation of competing energy projects. Despite this, Southeast Europe’s energy markets will soon be able to ensure a higher level of diversification and secure its supplies.     

Tourist segments' justifications for behaving in an environmentally unsustainable way

Misalignment of pro-environmental beliefs and environmentally unsustainable vacation behaviour can cause psychological tension to tourists. They manage this tension by finding justifications for their behaviour, rather than changing their behaviour. A recent study has systematized such justification; this systematics is used in the present study to investigate the existence of tourist segment sharing justification patterns. A finite mixture model with concomitant variables is used to analyse 2785 survey responses. Three segments are identified. The government blamers express strong interest in the environmental sustainability of their vacation, but deny both their responsibility and ability to make a difference. The struggling seekers would not book their dream vacation if it was environmentally unfriendly, yet do not feel in control of reducing negative environmental impacts of their holiday, which they fully acknowledge. The impact neglecters also state they would not book their dream vacation if it was environmentally unfriendly, but their main justification for taking – potentially environmentally harmful – vacations is denial of the negative environmental consequences of tourism. The existence of these differences in justification patterns indicates different approaches could counteract each of these segment-specific beliefs by inducing cognitive dissonance, shown in other contexts to induce behavioural change. Advice on approaches is given.     

Feeder Cattle Options: Where’s the Beef?

Feeder cattle is one of the most important commodities in the livestock industry worldwide. Nonetheless, beef production is subject to many uncertainties; therefore, the risk management tools that agents use must be efficient. This article discusses the financial options available in the Brazilian futures market to feeder cattle producers and describes the best risk pricing model to determine the option premium. Our results consider several option pricing models and different types of volatility. The best pricing is obtained with the model of Bjerksund and Stensland with the implied volatility.     

A simple analytical model of the adverse real effects of inflation

Abstract

The essential insight advanced in this paper is that the claim that inflation can impair growth makes most sense in the context of a monetary production economy, wherein a role for money in the determination of real activity is posited from the very start. We construct a model of inflation and growth that distinguishes between the properties of various qualitatively different inflation regimes. It is then shown how some of these regimes, by undermining confidence in various nominal contracts that are central to the process of accumulation in a monetary production economy, can adversely affect growth.     

A project management research framework integrating multiple theoretical perspectives and influencing factors

The increasing projectification of the business world corresponds with a high diversity of theoretical perspectives used in project management research. This diversity is reflected by a variety of influencing factors, which have been the subject of empirical studies. This article aims to systemize the different streams of research on the basis of a literature review and at developing a research framework by integrating multiple theoretical perspectives and influencing factors. We elaborate on the crosslinks between the perspectives and identify fundamental elements of a project management theory. The framework consists of three dimensions: design, context, and goal. Its purpose is to support the combination of different perspectives and the development of strategies for further research.     

Policy assessment of an EU wide flat area CAP payments system

While the evolution of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) until 2013 is clear, European Union (EU) budgetary pressures and the perceived unfairness of the distribution of CAP support across Member States has lead to uncertainty over the design of the CAP post 2013. One comprehensive reform option being considered is the implementation of an EU wide flat area payment (EUWFAP) system and a reduction of the total budget available for direct payments. It is hypothesised that the implementation of this policy proposal would lead to significant changes in the distribution of the EU budget and to the redistribution of agricultural production between the Member States, which could hinder the implementation of the proposal. This paper evaluates the rationality of the EUWFAP, based on the analysis of its budgetary and market impacts. Using the AGMEMOD 2020 combined model, the introduction of the EUWFAP in 2013 is compared with a baseline continuation of the current policy. Results suggest that there would be minor negative impacts on the agricultural production at the EU level, but that more substantial impact for some commodities, most notably beef, and could occur in the individual EU Member States. An important outcome of such a policy reform would be a substantial change in the budget allocation between Member States, which could help mitigate the budgetary tensions between the Member States.